Distinguishing cause from effect using observational data: methods and benchmarks

The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint observations of two variables X, Y. An example is to decide whether altitude causes temperature, or vice versa, given only joint measurements of both variables. Even under the simplifying assumptions of no confounding, no feedback loops, and no selection bias, such bivariate causal discovery problems are challenging. Nevertheless, several approaches for addressing those problems have been proposed in recent years. We review two families of such methods: Additive Noise Methods (ANM) and Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI). We present the benchmark CauseEffectPairs that consists of data for 100 different cause-effect pairs selected from 37 datasets from various domains (e.g., meteorology, biology, medicine, engineering, economy, etc.) and motivate our decisions regarding the "ground truth" causal directions of all pairs. We evaluate the performance of several bivariate causal discovery methods on these real-world benchmark data and in addition on artificially simulated data. Our empirical results on real-world data indicate that certain methods are indeed able to distinguish cause from effect using only purely observational data, although more benchmark data would be needed to obtain statistically significant conclusions. One of the best performing methods overall is the additive-noise method originally proposed by Hoyer et al. (2009), which obtains an accuracy of 63+-10 % and an AUC of 0.74+-0.05 on the real-world benchmark. As the main theoretical contribution of this work we prove the consistency of that method.Comment: 101 pages, second revision submitted to Journal of Machine Learning Researc

Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data: Connections

This paper provides a review of some connecting literature in Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data. We then discuss some research that is related to the six cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent econometric and statistical models to estimate the parameters in the associated models. Moreover, they could then conduct simulations to examine whether the estimators or statistics in the new theories on estimation and hypothesis have small size and high power. Thereafter, academics and practitioners could then apply their theories to analyze interesting problems and issues in the six disciplines and other cognate areas

Information-Theoretic Causal Discovery

It is well-known that correlation does not equal causation, but how can we infer causal relations from data? Causal discovery tries to answer precisely this question by rigorously analyzing under which assumptions it is feasible to infer causal networks from passively collected, so-called observational data. Particularly, causal discovery aims to infer a directed graph among a set of observed random variables under assumptions which are as realistic as possible. A key assumption in causal discovery is faithfulness. That is, we assume that separations in the true graph imply independencies in the distribution and vice versa. If faithfulness holds and we have access to a perfect independence oracle, traditional causal discovery approaches can infer the Markov equivalence class of the true causal graph---i.e., infer the correct undirected network and even some of the edge directions. In a real-world setting, faithfulness may be violated, however, and neither do we have access to such an independence oracle. Beyond that, we are interested in inferring the complete DAG structure and not just the Markov equivalence class. To circumvent or at least alleviate these limitations, we take an information-theoretic approach. In the first part of this thesis, we consider violations of faithfulness that can be induced by exclusive or relations or cancelling paths, and develop a weaker faithfulness assumption, called 2-adjacency faithfulness, to detect some of these mechanisms. Further, we analyze under which conditions it is possible to infer the correct DAG structure even if such violations occur. In the second part, we focus on independence testing via conditional mutual information (CMI). CMI is an information-theoretic measure of dependence based on Shannon entropy. We first suggest estimating CMI for discrete variables via normalized maximum likelihood instead of the plug-in maximum likelihood estimator that tends to overestimate dependencies. On top of that, we show that CMI can be consistently estimated for discrete-continuous mixture random variables by simply discretizing the continuous parts of each variable. Last, we consider the problem of distinguishing the two Markov equivalent graphs X to Y and Y to X, which is a necessary step towards discovering all edge directions. To solve this problem, it is inevitable to make assumptions about the generating mechanism. We build upon the idea which states that the cause is algorithmically independent of its mechanism. We propose two methods to approximate this postulate via the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle: one for univariate numeric data and one for multivariate mixed-type data. Finally, we combine insights from our MDL-based approach and regression-based methods with strong guarantees and show we can identify cause and effect via L0-regularized regression

The Minimum Description Length Principle for Pattern Mining: A Survey

This is about the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle applied to pattern mining. The length of this description is kept to the minimum. Mining patterns is a core task in data analysis and, beyond issues of efficient enumeration, the selection of patterns constitutes a major challenge. The MDL principle, a model selection method grounded in information theory, has been applied to pattern mining with the aim to obtain compact high-quality sets of patterns. After giving an outline of relevant concepts from information theory and coding, as well as of work on the theory behind the MDL and similar principles, we review MDL-based methods for mining various types of data and patterns. Finally, we open a discussion on some issues regarding these methods, and highlight currently active related data analysis problems

Learning Bayesian network equivalence classes using ant colony optimisation

Bayesian networks have become an indispensable tool in the modelling of uncertain knowledge. Conceptually, they consist of two parts: a directed acyclic graph called the structure, and conditional probability distributions attached to each node known as the parameters. As a result of their expressiveness, understandability and rigorous mathematical basis, Bayesian networks have become one of the first methods investigated, when faced with an uncertain problem domain. However, a recurring problem persists in specifying a Bayesian network. Both the structure and parameters can be difficult for experts to conceive, especially if their knowledge is tacit.To counteract these problems, research has been ongoing, on learning both the structure and parameters of Bayesian networks from data. Whilst there are simple methods for learning the parameters, learning the structure has proved harder. Part ofthis stems from the NP-hardness of the problem and the super-exponential space of possible structures. To help solve this task, this thesis seeks to employ a relatively new technique, that has had much success in tackling NP-hard problems. This technique is called ant colony optimisation. Ant colony optimisation is a metaheuristic based on the behaviour of ants acting together in a colony. It uses the stochastic activity of artificial ants to find good solutions to combinatorial optimisation problems. In the current work, this method is applied to the problem of searching through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks, in order to find a good match against a set of data. The system uses operators that evaluate potential modifications to a current state. Each of the modifications is scored and the results used to inform the search. In order to facilitate these steps, other techniques are also devised, to speed up the learning process. The techniques includeThe techniques are tested by sampling data from gold standard networks and learning structures from this sampled data. These structures are analysed using various goodnessof-fit measures to see how well the algorithms perform. The measures include structural similarity metrics and Bayesian scoring metrics. The results are compared in depth against systems that also use ant colony optimisation and other methods, including evolutionary programming and greedy heuristics. Also, comparisons are made to well known state-of-the-art algorithms and a study performed on a real-life data set. The results show favourable performance compared to the other methods and on modelling the real-life data

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Integrating Decision Heuristics And Behavioural Refinements Into Travel Choice Models

Discrete choice modelling has become the preferred empirical context to study individuals’ preferences and willingness to pay. Although the outcome is important in decision making, so is the process that individuals adopt to assist them in reaching a decision. Both should be considered when analysing individual behaviour as they represent jointly the endogeneity of choice. Traditional choice studies assume, in the main, a linear in the parameters additive in the attributes (LPAA) approach, where individuals are rational, take into account all the attributes and alternatives presented to them when reaching a decision, and value the attribute levels exactly as were presented in the popular choice experiment paradigm. This has not always been shown to be a behaviourally valid representation of choice response, and there is a growing literature on the role of a number of alternative decision process strategies that individuals use when facing a decision, which are often referred to as heuristics, or simply as process rules. The majority of choice studies also assume that respondents have a risk attitude that is risk neutral (i.e., a risky alternative is indifferent to a sure alternative of equal expected value) and that they perceive the levels of attributes in choice experiments in a way that suggests the absence of perceptual conditioning. Considering each in turn, there are people who are risk adverse, risk taking or risk neutral, and this heterogeneity in risk attitude does influence individuals’ decisions when faced with different choice scenarios. Heterogeneity is also present for perceptual conditioning in cases where there is variability in the outcomes of an attribute(s), which allows for differences between the stated probability of occurrence (in a choice experiment) and the perceived probability used when evaluating the prospect. Finally, the (accumulated) experience that individuals’ have with each alternative might also influence their decisions. The objective of this research is to integrate multiple decision process strategies, Value Learning (VL) and Relative Advantage Maximisation (RAM) in particular, alongside the traditional LPAA ‘process rule’ with behavioural refinements (i.e., risk attitudes, perceptual conditioning and overt experience), to take into account process endogeneity in choice responses. A novel approach is used to include process heterogeneity, referred to as conditioning of random process heterogeneity, where the mean and standard deviation of the parameters normally defined under an LPAA heuristic are conditioned by process strategies. This approach takes into account the relationship between process heterogeneity and preference heterogeneity, of particular interest in studies that integrate random parameters and process strategies. The model performance results and willingness to pay estimates are compared to those obtained when using a probabilistic decision process method, increasingly used in the choice literature to accommodate process heterogeneity