Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction: Progress and new directions in round XI

Modeling of protein structure from amino acid sequence now plays a major role in structural biology. Here we report new developments and progress from the CASP11 community experiment, assessing the state of the art in structure modeling. Notable points include the following: (1) New methods for predicting three dimensional contacts resulted in a few spectacular template free models in this CASP, whereas models based on sequence homology to proteins with experimental structure continue to be the most accurate. (2) Refinement of initial protein models, primarily using molecular dynamics related approaches, has now advanced to the point where the best methods can consistently (though slightly) improve nearly all models. (3) The use of relatively sparse NMR constraints dramatically improves the accuracy of models, and another type of sparse data, chemical crosslinking, introduced in this CASP, also shows promise for producing better models. (4) A new emphasis on modeling protein complexes, in collaboration with CAPRI, has produced interesting results, but also shows the need for more focus on this area. (5) Methods for estimating the accuracy of models have advanced to the point where they are of considerable practical use. (6) A first assessment demonstrates that models can sometimes successfully address biological questions that motivate experimental structure determination. (7) There is continuing progress in accuracy of modeling regions of structure not directly available by comparative modeling, while there is marginal or no progress in some other areas

Predicting the accuracy of protein-ligand docking on homology models

Ligand-protein docking is increasingly used in Drug Discovery. The initial limitations imposed by a reduced availability of target protein structures have been overcome by the use of theoretical models, especially those derived by homology modeling techniques. While this greatly extended the use of docking simulations, it also introduced the need for general and robust criteria to estimate the reliability of docking results given the model quality. To this end, a large-scale experiment was performed on a diverse set including experimental structures and homology models for a group of representative ligand-protein complexes. A wide spectrum of model quality was sampled using templates at different evolutionary distances and different strategies for target-template alignment and modeling. The obtained models were scored by a selection of the most used model quality indices. The binding geometries were generated using AutoDock, one of the most common docking programs. An important result of this study is that indeed quantitative and robust correlations exist between the accuracy of docking results and the model quality, especially in the binding site. Moreover, state-of-the-art indices for model quality assessment are already an effective tool for an a priori prediction of the accuracy of docking experiments in the context of groups of proteins with conserved structural characteristics.Contract/grant sponsor: National Institutes of Health; contract/grant numbers: ES00768

Introduction to Protein Structure Prediction

This chapter gives a graceful introduction to problem of protein three- dimensional structure prediction, and focuses on how to make structural sense out of a single input sequence with unknown structure, the 'query' or 'target' sequence. We give an overview of the different classes of modelling techniques, notably template-based and template free. We also discuss the way in which structural predictions are validated within the global com- munity, and elaborate on the extent to which predicted structures may be trusted and used in practice. Finally we discuss whether the concept of a sin- gle fold pertaining to a protein structure is sustainable given recent insights. In short, we conclude that the general protein three-dimensional structure prediction problem remains unsolved, especially if we desire quantitative predictions. However, if a homologous structural template is available in the PDB model or reasonable to high accuracy may be generated

Protein Structure Prediction: The Next Generation

Over the last 10-15 years a general understanding of the chemical reaction of protein folding has emerged from statistical mechanics. The lessons learned from protein folding kinetics based on energy landscape ideas have benefited protein structure prediction, in particular the development of coarse grained models. We survey results from blind structure prediction. We explore how second generation prediction energy functions can be developed by introducing information from an ensemble of previously simulated structures. This procedure relies on the assumption of a funnelled energy landscape keeping with the principle of minimal frustration. First generation simulated structures provide an improved input for associative memory energy functions in comparison to the experimental protein structures chosen on the basis of sequence alignment

Quantitative surface field analysis: learning causal models to predict ligand binding affinity and pose.

We introduce the QuanSA method for inducing physically meaningful field-based models of ligand binding pockets based on structure-activity data alone. The method is closely related to the QMOD approach, substituting a learned scoring field for a pocket constructed of molecular fragments. The problem of mutual ligand alignment is addressed in a general way, and optimal model parameters and ligand poses are identified through multiple-instance machine learning. We provide algorithmic details along with performance results on sixteen structure-activity data sets covering many pharmaceutically relevant targets. In particular, we show how models initially induced from small data sets can extrapolatively identify potent new ligands with novel underlying scaffolds with very high specificity. Further, we show that combining predictions from QuanSA models with those from physics-based simulation approaches is synergistic. QuanSA predictions yield binding affinities, explicit estimates of ligand strain, associated ligand pose families, and estimates of structural novelty and confidence. The method is applicable for fine-grained lead optimization as well as potent new lead identification