Evaluating the long-term impact of antipoverty interventions in Bangladesh: An overview

This paper provides an overview of a research project that assessed the long-term impact of three antipoverty interventions in Bangladesh—the introduction of new agricultural technologies, educational transfers, and microfinance—on monetary and nonmonetary measures of well-being. This paper begins by setting out the conceptual framework, methodology, and empirical methods used for the evaluation of long-term impacts. It discusses the context of the evaluations and the longitudinal data used. Key findings from the individual papers are then presented, followed by an indicative analysis of the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. The overview concludes with implications for programs and policy.antipoverty interventions, Impact evaluation, long-term impact,

Universality caused: the case of renormalization group explanation

Recently, many have argued that there are certain kinds of abstract mathematical explanations that are noncausal. In particular, the irrelevancy approach suggests that abstracting away irrelevant causal details can leave us with a noncausal explanation. In this paper, I argue that the common example of Renormalization Group explanations of universality used to motivate the irrelevancy approach deserves more critical attention. I argue that the reasons given by those who hold up RG as noncausal do not stand up to critical scrutiny. As a result, the irrelevancy approach and the line between casual and noncausal explanation deserves more scrutiny

“Leftist”, “Rightist” and Intermediate Decompositions of Poverty: Variations with an Application to China from 1990 to 2003

This paper investigates the influence of invariance axioms in the decomposition of observed poverty variations into growth and inequality effects. After a complete and critical review of the invariance axioms suggested in the literature, we show that few information is needed for the ordering of the effects respectively obtained through scale, translation and intermediate invariance. Using Chinese data for the period 1990-2003, we find that some commonly observed results of the decomposition are contingent to the invariance axiom choices whilst other are robust to changes in ethical preferences.Poverty, inequality effect, growth effect, decomposition, scale invariance, translation invariance, intermediate invariance, China.

“Leftist”, “Rightist” and Intermediate Decompositions of Poverty Variations with an Application to China from 1990 to 2003

This paper investigates the influence of invariance axioms in the decomposition of observed poverty variations into growth and inequality effects. After a complete and critical review of the invariance axioms suggested in the literature, we show that few information is needed for the ordering of the effects respectively obtained through scale, translation and intermediate invariance. Using Chinese data for the period 1990-2003, we find that some commonly observed results of the decomposition are contingent to the invariance axiom choices whilst other are robust to changes in ethical preferences.Poverty, inequality effect, growth effect, Decomposition, scale invariance, translationinvariance, intermediate invariance, China

“Leftist”, “Rightist” and Intermediate Decompositions of Poverty Variations with an Application to China from 1990 to 2003

This paper investigates the influence of invariance axioms in the decomposition of observed poverty variations into growth and inequality effects. After a complete and critical review of the invariance axioms suggested in the literature, we show that few information is needed for the ordering of the effects respectively obtained through scale, translation and intermediate invariance. Using Chinese data for the period 1990-2003, we find that some commonly observed results of the decomposition are contingent to the invariance axiom choices whilst other are robust to changes in ethical preferences.Poverty;inequality effect;growth effect;Decomposition;scale invariance;translationinvariance;intermediate invariance;China

"Actual" does not imply "feasible"

The familiar complaint that some ambitious proposal is infeasible naturally invites the following response: Once upon a time, the abolition of slavery and the enfranchisement of women seemed infeasible, yet these things were actually achieved. Presumably, then, many of those things that seem infeasible in our own time may well be achieved too and, thus, turn out to have been perfectly feasible after all. The Appeal to History, as we call it, is a bad argument. It is not true that if some desirable state of affairs was actually achieved, then it was feasible that it was achieved. “Actual” does not imply “feasible,” as we put it. Here is our objection. “Feasible” implies “not counterfactually fluky.” But “actual” does not imply “not counterfactually fluky.” So, “actual” does not imply “feasible.” While something like the Flukiness Objection is sometimes hinted at in the context of the related literature on abilities, it has not been developed in any detail, and both premises are inadequately motivated. We offer a novel articulation of the Flukiness Objection that is both more precise and better motivated. Our conclusions have important implications, not only for the admissible use of history in normative argument, but also by potentially circumscribing the normative claims that are applicable to us

El Nino or El Peso? Crisis, poverty, and income distribution in the Philippines

Using household survey data for 1998, the authors assess the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis in the Philippines. The results suggest that the impact of the crisis was modest, leading to a five percent reduction in average living standards, and a nine percent increase in the incidence of poverty - with larger increases indicated for the depth, and severity of poverty. The greater shock came from El Nino, rather than through the labor market. The labor market shock was progressive (reducing inequality) while El Nino shock was regressive (increasing inequality). Not all households were equally vulnerable to the crisis-induced shocks. Household and community characteristics affected the impact of the shocks. Ownership of land, made households more susceptible to the El Nino shocks, higher levels of education made households more vulnerable to wage, and employment shocks. The impact of the crisis was greater in more commercially developed communities. Occupational diversity within a household helped mitigate the adverse impact. There is some evidence of consumption smoothing by the households affected by the crisis, but the poor were less able to protect their consumption, which is a matter of policy concern.Environmental Economics&Policies,Inequality,Poverty Assessment,Economic Theory&Research,Health Economics&Finance

Contract Enforcement and Productive Efficiency: Evidence from the Bidding and Renegotiation of Power Contracts in India

Weak contract enforcement may reduce the efficiency of investment in developing countries. I study how contract enforcement affects efficiency in procurement auctions for the largest power projects in India. I gather data on bidding and ex post contract renegotiation and find that the renegotiation of contracts in response to cost shocks is widespread, despite that bidders are allowed to index their bids to future costs like the price of coal. Connected firms choose to index less of the value of their bids to coal prices and, through this strategy, expose themselves to cost shocks to induce renegotiation. I use a structural model of bidding in a scoring auction to characterize equilibrium bidding when bidders are heterogeneous both in cost and in the payments they expect after renegotiation. The model estimates show that bidders offer power below cost due to the expected value of later renegotiation. The model is used to simulate bidding and efficiency with strict contract enforcement. Contract enforcement is found to be pro-competitive. With no renegotiation, equilibrium bids would rise to cover cost, but markups relative to total contract value fall sharply. Production costs decline, due to projects being allocated to lower-cost bidders over those who expect larger payments in renegotiation