Models of Transportation and Land Use Change: A Guide to the Territory

Modern urban regions are highly complex entities. Despite the difficulty of modeling every relevant aspect of an urban region, researchers have produced a rich variety models dealing with inter-related processes of urban change. The most popular types of models have been those dealing with the relationship between transportation network growth and changes in land use and the location of economic activity, embodied in the concept of accessibility. This paper reviews some of the more common frameworks for modeling transportation and land use change, illustrating each with some examples of operational models that have been applied to real-world settings.Transport, land use, models, review network growth, induced demand, induced supply

Land-Use Transport Interaction: State of the Art

This paper investigates innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. Engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies are analyzed regarding their ability to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed.Urban location theory, transportation research, land use- transport interaction, urban simulation modeling, location choice

Spatial Complex Network Analysis and Accessibility Indicators: the Case of Municipal Commuting in Sardinia, Italy

In this paper a contribution is presented with respect to accessibility indicators modelling for commuters moving through the municipalities of Sardinia, in Italy. In this case, spatial complex network analysis is integrated into the construction of accessibility measures: one of the most relevant outcomes of the first tool –the detection of shortest road paths and distances- is adopted as an input for the second in modelling accessibility indicators. Instead of Euclidean distances often adopted in the literature, shortest road distances are chosen, as commuting implies movements that are usually repeated daily and very likely subjected, even unconsciously, to space and time minimization strategies. In particular, two commuter accessibility indicators are constructed according to approaches based on a travel cost and a spatial interaction model with impedance function calibrated in exponential and in power form. The accessibility indicators are confronted each other and with relevant socio-economic and infrastructure characteristics of Sardinia. In addition, they are described, with respect to their spatial distribution and their different implications, when adopted in decision-making and planning. The travel cost based accessibility indicator has a municipal spatial distribution strongly influenced by the main road infrastructure of the Island. By contrast, spatial interaction model based accessibility indicators are more reliable, with respect to their capacity to confirm a leading socio-economic role of the municipalities comprehended in the metropolitan area of the capital town Cagliari

Modeling commuting systems through a complex network analysis: a study of the Italian islands of Sardinia and Sicily

This study analyzes the inter-municipal commuting systems of the Italian islands of Sardinia and Sicily, employing weighted network analysis technique. Based on the results obtained for the Sardinian commuting network, the network analysis is used to identify similarities and dissimilarities between the two systems

National and international freight transport models: overview and ideas for further development

This paper contains a review of the literature on freight transport models, focussing on the types of models that have been developed since the nineties for forecasting, policy simulation and project evaluation at the national and international level. Models for production, attraction, distribution, modal split and assignment are discussed in the paper. Furthermore, the paper also includes a number of ideas for future development, especially for the regional and urban components within national freight transport models

CAST – City analysis simulation tool: an integrated model of land use, population, transport and economics

The paper reports on research into city modelling based on principles of Science of Complexity. It focuses on integration of major processes in cities, such as economics, land use, transport and population movement. This is achieved using an extended Cellular Automata model, which allows cells to form networks, and operate on individual financial budgets. There are 22 cell types with individual processes in them. The formation of networks is based on supply and demand mechanisms for products, skills, accommodation, and services. Demand for transport is obtained as an emergent property of the system resulting from the network connectivity and relevant economic mechanisms. Population movement is a consequence of mechanisms in the housing and skill markets. Income and expenditure of cells are self-regulated through market mechanisms and changing patterns of land use are a consequence of collective interaction of all mechanisms in the model, which are integrated through emergence

Exploring the relationship between land-use system and travel behaviour - some first findings

Theories on the reciprocal relationship between land-use and transport address changes in locational decisions and travel behavior of private actors (households and firms) due to alternations in the transport system, respectively land-use system. Although the impact of land-use system on travel behaviour (transport system) has been the subject of much research (for reviews, see, e.g. Handy, 2002; Stead and Marshall, 2001; Crane, 2000; Wegener and Fürst, 1999), there is still no consensus about the strength of this relationship. This may be caused by different types of variables whether or not included in the research. Initially only land-use variables were taken into account, but nowadays socio-economical variables are also incorporated. Still, within ‘homogeneous groups’, there may be attitudes, lifestyles, perceptions, and preferences which can have an impact on land-use and/or travel behaviour. Academic literature on the latter remains scarce and the main focus of the existing behavioural literature is the impact of residential location on travel choices, especially modal choice. However, little work has thus far been done on other dimensions of travel choices (e.g., distance, time) and other location types (e.g., commercial, industrial, recreational). Less is known about the reverse relationship, e.g. the impact of the transport system on location decisions of households and firms (land-use system). A difference in time-scale can be the reason for this. Transformations in land-use occur much slower (years) compared to transformations in travel behaviour (days, weeks, months). In this paper we explore several possibilities to fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge on the land-use/transport system. Understanding the two-way interaction between land-use and travel behaviour involves having (i) data on land-use patterns, socio-economic background of individuals and their attitudes, perceptions and preferences towards land-use and travel; and (ii) a methodology, dealing with potential multiple directions of causality. The first issue can be achieved by combining empirical, revealed and stated preference research. The second methodological question can be solved using structural equation modelling (SEM). This is a modelling technique which can handle a large number of endogenous and exogenous variables. Because of the multiple directions of causality that can be explored, SEM can help us to define the relationship between revealed preference data and stated preference data.

Interaction of transport and land use: framework for an integrated urban model

The growing general concern on limited resources (e.g. space) have led to the conviction that policy makers, that deal with urban development, need to consider their choices carefully, with respect to the effects on urban development on the long term. Models that describe the urban development provide quantitative insight in the effects of possible government policy and are a useful tool for policy makers. In the last decade new generation computers have drastically increased data handling capacity and graphically possibilities, allowing much more detail in spatial modeling. This has resulted in research efforts into urban models to quantify the effects of spatial policy. The research, which will be described in this paper, aims for an integrated approach to spatial modeling with special attention on the influence of transport networks and the role of the government. Main objective of the research is the development and application of an urban model to quantify the effects of planning policies on the spatial development. At micro level this urban model simulates the reaction of actors to changes in the urban system: the development or renewal of new urban areas and new infrastructure. These changes are imposed on the urban system by government and developers on macro and meso level. The paper will present the theoretical framework for the proposed urban model and the objectives of the research. This will be complemented with a description of spatial planning issues in the Netherlands. In the proposed urban model the spatial system (urban region) is represented by multiple linked sub-systems. Individual sub-systems are: the housing market, public facilities, the market for business real estate and the transport system. Each sub-system is represented as a market with a supply and demand side. The government and (project) developers define the supply side through spatial policy and investments. On the demand side, agents (households and companies) react at changes in these subsystems. These reactions expose themselves as individual decisions whether to move to other dwellings or to relocate businesses. Development and application of modeling techniques for the choice behavior of households and companies as entities, are main objectives in the research. The urban markets have a strong coherence for the spatial relations of each agent. Quantification of these relationships, by analyzing the transportation facilities, is important in analyzing the choice behavior of households and companies. This is why the transport system plays a central role in the urban model. For each subsystem an appropriate modeling technique has been selected, based on an exploration of available approaches in the literature and other research programs. Efforts are under way to collect and operationalize the extensive data necessary for the modeling task.