Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania

This paper deals with the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania. Using the cointegration technique, the main conclusions of the paper are that in the period 1998-2006 the average annual rate of inflation generated by the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania was between 0.11% in 2005 and 0.9% in 2000 in the case of the classical model (0.4% on average); in the extended model, which is considered more appropriate by us, the impact on inflation is higher and ranges between 0.69% in 2005 and 4.76% in 2000 (2.18% on average in 1998-2006). Regarding the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real appreciation of the exchange rate, the results of the paper revealed that the real appreciation of the exchange rate due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect was between 0.24% and 1.94% in the case of the classical model and between 0.73% and 5.06% in the case of the extended model (2.31% on average in 1998-2006). The paper revealed also that the regulated prices and the price convergence play an important role in the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania.Balassa-Samuelson effect, convergence, relative prices, regulated prices

Efectul Balassa-Samuelson in Romania

This paper deals with the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania. Using the cointegration technique, the main conclusions of the paper are that in the period 1998-2006 the average annual rate of inflation generated by the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania was between 0.11% in 2005 and 0.9% in 2000 in the case of the classical model (0.4% on average); in the extended model, which is considered more appropriate by us, the impact on inflation is higher and ranges between 0.69% in 2005 and 4.76% in 2000 (2.18% on average in 1998-2006). Regarding the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real appreciation of the exchange rate, the results of the paper revealed that the real appreciation of the exchange rate due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect was between 0.24% and 1.94% in the case of the classical model and between 0.73% and 5.06% in the case of the extended model (2.31% on average in 1998-2006). The paper revealed also that the regulated prices and the price convergence play an important role in the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania

Efectul Balassa-Samuelson in Romania

This paper deals with the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania. Using the cointegration technique, the main conclusions of the paper are that in the period 1998-2006 the average annual rate of inflation generated by the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania was between 0.11% in 2005 and 0.9% in 2000 in the case of the classical model (0.4% on average); in the extended model, which is considered more appropriate by us, the impact on inflation is higher and ranges between 0.69% in 2005 and 4.76% in 2000 (2.18% on average in 1998-2006). Regarding the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real appreciation of the exchange rate, the results of the paper revealed that the real appreciation of the exchange rate due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect was between 0.24% and 1.94% in the case of the classical model and between 0.73% and 5.06% in the case of the extended model (2.31% on average in 1998-2006). The paper revealed also that the regulated prices and the price convergence play an important role in the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania

Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?

This paper investigates the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for two acceding countries (Bulgaria and Romania), two accession countries (Croatia and Turkey) and two CIS countries (Russia and Ukraine). The paper first studies the basic assumptions of the Balassa-Samuelson effect using yearly data, and then undertakes an econometric analysis of the assumptions on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that for most of the countries, there is either amplification or attenuation, implying that any increase in the open sector’s productivity feeds onto changes in the relative price of non-tradables either imperfectly or in an over-proportionate manner. With these results as a background, the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect is derived. For this purpose, a number of different sectoral classification schemes are used to group sectors into open and closed sectors, which makes a difference for some of the countries. The Balassa-Samuelson effect is found to play only a limited role for inflation and real exchange rate determination, and it seems to be roughly in line with earlier findings for the eight new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40182/3/wp796.pd

Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the factors that can cause price levels to diverge and which are at the root of different inflation rates in Europe including the EU-27. Among others, we study the structural and cyclical factors influencing market and non-marketbased service, house and goods prices, and we summarise some stylised facts emerging from descriptive statistics. Subsequently, we set out the possible mismatches between price level convergence and inflation rates. Having described in detail the underlying economic factors, we proceed to demonstrate the relative importance of these factors on observed inflation rates first in an accounting framework and then by relying on panel estimations. Our estimation results provide the obituary notice for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Nevertheless, we show that other factors related to economic convergence may push up inflation rates in transition economies. Cyclical effects and regulated prices are found to be important drivers of inflation rates in an enlarged Europe. House prices matter to some extent in the euro area, whereas the exchange rate plays a prominent (but declining) role in transition economies.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64369/1/wp895.pd

Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?

This paper investigates the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for two acceding countries (Bulgaria and Romania), two accession countries (Croatia and Turkey) and two CIS countries (Russia and Ukraine). The paper first studies the basic assumptions of the Balassa-Samuelson effect using yearly data, and then undertakes an econometric analysis of the assumptions on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that for most of the countries, there is either amplification or attenuation, implying that any increase in the open sector's productivity feeds onto changes in the relative price of non-tradables either imperfectly or in an over-proportionate manner. With these results as a background, the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect is derived. For this purpose, a number of different sectoral classification schemes are used to group sectors into open and closed sectors, which makes a difference for some of the countries. The Balassa-Samuelson effect is found to play only a limited role for inflation and real exchange rate determination, and it seems to be roughly in line with earlier findings for the eight new EU member states of Central and Eastern EuropeBalassa-Samuelson effect, productivity, inflation, real exchange rate, transition, South Eastern Europe, CIS, Turkey

Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the factors that can cause price levels to diverge and which are at the root of different inflation rates in Europe including the EU-27. Among others, we study the structural and cyclical factors influencing market and non-marketbased service, house and goods prices, and we summarise some stylised facts emerging from descriptive statistics. Subsequently, we set out the possible mismatches between price level convergence and inflation rates. Having described in detail the underlying economic factors, we proceed to demonstrate the relative importance of these factors on observed inflation rates first in an accounting framework and then by relying on panel estimations. Our estimation results provide the obituary notice for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Nevertheless, we show that other factors related to economic convergence may push up inflation rates in transition economies. Cyclical effects and regulated prices are found to be important drivers of inflation rates in an enlarged Europe. House prices matter to some extent in the euro area, whereas the exchange rate plays a prominent (but declining) role in transition economies.price level, inflation, Balassa-Samuelson, tradables, house prices, regulated prices, Europe, transition

Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?

This paper investigates the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for two acceding countries (Bulgaria and Romania), two accession countries (Croatia and Turkey) and two CIS countries (Russia and Ukraine). The paper first studies the basic assumptions of the Balassa-Samuelson effect using yearly data, and then undertakes an econometric analysis of the assumptions on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that for most of the countries, there is either amplification or attenuation, implying that any increase in the open sector’s productivity feeds onto changes in the relative price of non-tradables either imperfectly or in an over-proportionate manner. With these results as a background, the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect is derived. For this purpose, a number of different sectoral classification schemes are used to group sectors into open and closed sectors, which makes a difference for some of the countries. The Balassa-Samuelson effect is found to play only a limited role for inflation and real exchange rate determination, and it seems to be roughly in line with earlier findings for the eight new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe.Balassa-Samuelson effect, productivity, inflation, real exchange rate, transition, South Eastern Europe, CIS, Turkey

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?

This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors. For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch Disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates. A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40156/3/wp770.pd

Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel’s Law and other Culprits

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-makret service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation is more persistant and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.European Union, inflation, Balassa-Samuelson, real convergence,catching up, Bayesian model average, non-linearity.