Incorporating prediction models in the SelfLet framework: a plugin approach

A complex pervasive system is typically composed of many cooperating \emph{nodes}, running on machines with different capabilities, and pervasively distributed across the environment. These systems pose several new challenges such as the need for the nodes to manage autonomously and dynamically in order to adapt to changes detected in the environment. To address the above issue, a number of autonomic frameworks has been proposed. These usually offer either predefined self-management policies or programmatic mechanisms for creating new policies at design time. From a more theoretical perspective, some works propose the adoption of prediction models as a way to anticipate the evolution of the system and to make timely decisions. In this context, our aim is to experiment with the integration of prediction models within a specific autonomic framework in order to assess the feasibility of such integration in a setting where the characteristics of dynamicity, decentralization, and cooperation among nodes are important. We extend an existing infrastructure called \emph{SelfLets} in order to make it ready to host various prediction models that can be dynamically plugged and unplugged in the various component nodes, thus enabling a wide range of predictions to be performed. Also, we show in a simple example how the system works when adopting a specific prediction model from the literature

Data mining and predictive analytics application on cellular networks to monitor and optimize quality of service and customer experience

This research study focuses on the application models of Data Mining and Machine Learning covering cellular network traffic, in the objective to arm Mobile Network Operators with full view of performance branches (Services, Device, Subscribers). The purpose is to optimize and minimize the time to detect service and subscriber patterns behaviour. Different data mining techniques and predictive algorithms have been applied on real cellular network datasets to uncover different data usage patterns using specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Key Quality Indicators (KQI). The following tools will be used to develop the concept: RStudio for Machine Learning and process visualization, Apache Spark, SparkSQL for data and big data processing and clicData for service Visualization. Two use cases have been studied during this research. In the first study, the process of Data and predictive Analytics are fully applied in the field of Telecommunications to efficiently address users’ experience, in the goal of increasing customer loyalty and decreasing churn or customer attrition. Using real cellular network transactions, prediction analytics are used to predict customers who are likely to churn, which can result in revenue loss. Prediction algorithms and models including Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Networks and Gradient boosting have been used with an exploratory Data Analysis, determining relationship between predicting variables. The data is segmented in to two, a training set to train the model and a testing set to test the model. The evaluation of the best performing model is based on the prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the Confusion Matrix on the test set. The second use case analyses Service Quality Management using modern data mining techniques and the advantages of in-memory big data processing with Apache Spark and SparkSQL to save cost on tool investment; thus, a low-cost Service Quality Management model is proposed and analyzed. With increase in Smart phone adoption, access to mobile internet services, applications such as streaming, interactive chats require a certain service level to ensure customer satisfaction. As a result, an SQM framework is developed with Service Quality Index (SQI) and Key Performance Index (KPI). The research concludes with recommendations and future studies around modern technology applications in Telecommunications including Internet of Things (IoT), Cloud and recommender systems.Cellular networks have evolved and are still evolving, from traditional GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) Circuit switched which only supported voice services and extremely low data rate, to LTE all Packet networks accommodating high speed data used for various service applications such as video streaming, video conferencing, heavy torrent download; and for say in a near future the roll-out of the Fifth generation (5G) cellular networks, intended to support complex technologies such as IoT (Internet of Things), High Definition video streaming and projected to cater massive amount of data. With high demand on network services and easy access to mobile phones, billions of transactions are performed by subscribers. The transactions appear in the form of SMSs, Handovers, voice calls, web browsing activities, video and audio streaming, heavy downloads and uploads. Nevertheless, the stormy growth in data traffic and the high requirements of new services introduce bigger challenges to Mobile Network Operators (NMOs) in analysing the big data traffic flowing in the network. Therefore, Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) turn in to a challenge. Inefficiency in mining, analysing data and applying predictive intelligence on network traffic can produce high rate of unhappy customers or subscribers, loss on revenue and negative services’ perspective. Researchers and Service Providers are investing in Data mining, Machine Learning and AI (Artificial Intelligence) methods to manage services and experience. This research study focuses on the application models of Data Mining and Machine Learning covering network traffic, in the objective to arm Mobile Network Operators with full view of performance branches (Services, Device, Subscribers). The purpose is to optimize and minimize the time to detect service and subscriber patterns behaviour. Different data mining techniques and predictive algorithms will be applied on cellular network datasets to uncover different data usage patterns using specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Key Quality Indicators (KQI). The following tools will be used to develop the concept: R-Studio for Machine Learning, Apache Spark, SparkSQL for data processing and clicData for Visualization.Electrical and Mining EngineeringM. Tech (Electrical Engineering

Agent based modelling and simulation: An examination of customer retention in the UK mobile market

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Customer retention is an important issue for any business, especially in mature markets such as the UK mobile market where new customers can only be acquired from competitors. Different methods and techniques have been used to investigate customer retention including statistical methods and data mining. However, due to the increasing complexity of the mobile market, the effectiveness of these techniques is questionable. This study proposes Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) as a novel approach to investigate customer retention. ABMS is an emerging means of simulating behaviour and examining behavioural consequences. In outline, agents represent customers and agent relationships represent processes of agent interaction. This study follows the design science paradigm to build and evaluate a generic, reusable, agent-based (CubSim) model to examine the factors affecting customer retention based on data extracted from a UK mobile operator. Based on these data, two data mining models are built to gain a better understanding of the problem domain and to identify the main limitations of data mining. This is followed by two interrelated development cycles: (1) Build the CubSim model, starting with modelling customer interaction with the market, including interaction with the service provider and other competing operators in the market; and (2) Extend the CubSim model by incorporating interaction among customers. The key contribution of this study lies in using ABMS to identify and model the key factors that affect customer retention simultaneously and jointly. In this manner, the CubSim model is better suited to account for the dynamics of customer churn behaviour in the UK mobile market than all other existing models. Another important contribution of this study is that it provides an empirical, actionable insight on customer retention. In particular, and most interestingly, the experimental results show that applying a mixed customer retention strategy targeting both high value customers and customers with a large personal network outperforms the traditional customer retention strategies, which focuses only on the customer‘s value.This work is funded by the Brunel Department of Information Systems and Computing (DISC

Computational Efficiency Analysis of Customer Churn Prediction Using Spark and Caret Random Forest Classifier

Today’s businesses are buying into technological advancement for productivity, profit maximization and better service delivery. Meanwhile technology as also brought about data coming in at an alarming rate in which businesses need to re-strategize how these data are being handled for them to retain ability to turn them to value. Traditional data mining techniques has proofed beyond doubt that data can be harnessed and turn into value for business growth. But the era of large scale data is posing a challenge of computational efficiency to this traditional approach. This paper therefore address this issue by under-studying a big data analytics tool-Spark with a data mining technique Caret. A churn Telecom dataset was used to analyse both the computational and performance metrics of the two approaches using their Random Forest (RF) classifier. The Classifier was trained with same the train set partitioning and tuning parameters. The result shows that Spark-RF is computational efficient with execution time of 50.25 secs compared to Caret-RF of 847.20 secs. Customer churning rate could be minimized if proper management attention and policy is paid to tenure (ShortTenure), Contract, InternetService and PaymentMethod as the variable importance plot and churn rate count mechanism confirm that. The Classifier accuracy was approximately 80% for both implementation. Keywords: Spark, Caret, Random Forest, Churn, accurac

Classification of customer call details records using Support Vector Machine (SVMs) and Decision Tree (DTs)

On a daily basis, telecom businesses create a massive amount of data. Decision-makers underlined that acquiring new customers is more difficult than maintaining current ones. Further, existing churn customers' data may be used to identify churn consumers as well as their behavior patterns. This study provides a churn prediction model for the telecom industry that employs SVMs and DTs to detect churn customers. The suggested model uses classification techniques to churn customers' data, with the Support Vector Machine (SVMs) method performing well 98.36 % properly categorized instances) and the Decision Tree (DTs) approach performing poorly 33.04 % and the decision tree algorithm deliver outstanding results

A SURVEY ON CHURN ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION IN VIDEO ON DEMAND

Consumer loyalty is a key measure of achievement. Despondent clients will not be staying around the service. When there are unhappy clients once in a while voice their disappointment before leaving. Streaming administration, motion pictures, and television shows are gushing over the internet, not being downloaded, so we should be associated with the internet all through your watch instantly experience. Hence, to help them recognize to disappointed clients†from the get-go in their relationship. Doing as such would permit streaming administration to find a way to enhance client's joy†before it's excessively late. To distinguish the purposes behind clients who are producing from the spilling administration furthermore anticipating what number of clients will get stick around the gushing administration.Â

Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Embeddings

We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features