Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China

Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996-99. Their respective contributions in percentage points were 2.5 and 3.5 for the province-level metropolises, 0.6 and 2.3 for the northeastern provinces, 2.8 and 2.8 for the coastal provinces, 2.0 and 1.6 for the central provinces, 0 and 1.6 for the northwestern provinces, and 0.1 and 1.8 for the southwestern provinces. Because the so-called preferential policies are largely deregulation policies that have allowed coastal Chinese provinces to integrate into the international economy, it is far superior to reduce regional disparity by extending these deregulation policies to the interior provinces than by re-regulating the coastal provinces. Two additional inhibitions to income convergence are the household registration system, which makes the movement of the rural poor to prosperous areas illegal, and the monopoly state bank system that, because of its bureaucratic nature, disburses most of its funds to its large traditional customers, few of whom are located in the western provinces. Improving infrastructure to overcome geographic barriers is fundamental to increasing western growth, but increasing human capital formation (education and medical care) is also crucial because only it can come up with new better ideas to solve centuries-old problems like unbalanced growth.

Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China

Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996–99. Their respective contributions in percentage points were 2. 5 and 3. 5 for the province-level metropolises, 0. 6 and 2. 3 for the northeastern provinces, 2. 8 and 2. 8 for the coastal provinces, 2. 0 and 1. 6 for the central provinces, 0 and 1. 6 for the northwestern provinces, and 0. 1 and 1. 8 for the southwestern provinces. Because the so-called preferential policies are largely deregulation policies that have allowed coastal Chinese provinces to integrate into the international economy, it is far superior to reduce regional disparity by extending these deregulation policies to the interior provinces than by re-regulating the coastal provinces. Two additional inhibitions to income convergence are the household registration system, which makes the movement of the rural poor to prosperous areas illegal, and the monopoly state bank system that, because of its bureaucratic nature, disburses most of its funds to its large traditional customers, few of whom are located in the western provinces. Improving infrastructure to overcome geographic barriers is fundamental to increasing western growth, but increasing human capital formation (education and medical care) is also crucial because only it can come up with new better ideas to solve centuries-old problems like unbalanced growth.

Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China

Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996–99. Their respective contributions in percentage points were 2.5 and 3.5 for the province-level metropolises, 0.6 and 2.3 for the northeastern provinces, 2.8 and 2.8 for the coastal provinces, 2.0 and 1.6 for the central provinces, 0 and 1.6 for the northwestern provinces, and 0.1 and 1.8 for the southwestern provinces. Because the so-called preferential policies are largely deregulation policies that allowed coastal Chinese provinces to integrate into the international economy, it is far superior to reduce regional disparity by extending these deregulation policies to the interior provinces than by re-regulating the coastal provinces. Two additional inhibitions to income convergence are the household registration system, which makes the movement of the rural poor to prosperous areas illegal, and the monopoly state bank system that, because of their bureaucratic nature, disburses most of its funds to its large traditional customers, few of whom are located in the western provinces. Improving infrastructure to overcome geographic barriers is fundamental to increasing western growth, but increasing human capital formation (education and medical care) is also crucial because only it can come up with new better ideas to solve centuries-old problems like unbalanced growth.China’s Western, Preferential Policies, economic geography, China’s Regional Growth Pattern

Growth Accounting for the Chinese Provinces 1990-2000: Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation

This paper examines the linkage between aggregate real output, capital, labour, education, and productivity within a growth accounting framework for 27 Chinese provinces between 1990 and 2000. The results suggest that human capital has had a significant role in facilitating economic growth of all of the provinces throughout the 1990s. Regional disparities in factor accumulation are also considered. The results suggest that uneven distribution of resources between the coastal and inland provinces increased the regional gap in economic growth throughout the 1990s.China, Economic growth, Human capital, Reform

International Trade, Location and Wage Inequality in China

trade, China, regional disparities, wage rates

Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99

China, income distribution, spatial effects, spatial econometrics

Regional Income Divergence in China

Numerous policy studies have argued that conditions have prevailed in China since the open door economic reforms of the late 1970s that have encouraged rapid growth at the expense of regional income inequality across the provinces of China. In this paper we use recently developed nonstationary panel techniques to provide empirical support for the fact that the long run tendency since the reforms has been for provincial level incomes to continue to diverge. More importantly, we show that this divergence cannot be attributed to the presence of separate, regional convergence clubs divided among common geographic subgroupings such as the coastal versus interior provinces. Furthermore, we also show that the divergence cannot be attributed to differences in the degree of preferential open-door policies. Rather, we find that the divergence is pervasive both nationally and within these various regional and political subgroupings. We argue that these results point to other causes for regional income divergence, and they also carry potentially important implications for other regions of the world.China, convergence, nonstationary panels

Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis

The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with a fixed-effect spatial lag model and a fixed-effect spatial error model. The fixedeffect spatial lag model seems to better capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of 4 percent.Energy demand in China, Coal demand in China, Chinese provinces, Panel data; Spatial econometrics, Forecasting

Child Mortality under Chinese Reforms

This paper looks for the impact of the Chinese economic reforms on its health performance. From an appropriate health outcomes indicator, it appears that while still being one of the most performing countries, China’s relative advance decreased during the reforms. Consistent with the fact that the health system had to rely more and more on private expenditures, we find an increasing impact of income on infant survival. We also show that relative prices matter for infant survival: for a given increase of income per capita, a currency real depreciation lowers survival. Focusing on poverty reduction still seems to be in China the main way to significantly improve infant survival.China., policy reforms, Infant mortality rate, Child mortality rate

Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Regional Inequality in China

We study the dispersion in rates of provincial economic- and TFP growth in China. Our results show that regional growth patterns can be understood as a function of several interrelated factors, which include investment in physical capital, human capital, and infrastructure capital; the infusion of new technology and its regional spread; and market reforms, with a major step forward occurring following Deng Xiaoping’s “South Trip” in 1992. We find that FDI had much larger effect on TFP growth before 1994 than after, and we attribute this to emergence of other channels of technology transfer when marketization accelerated. We find that human capital positively affects output per worker and productivity growth. In particular, in terms of its direct contribution to production, educated labor has a much higher marginal product. Moreover, we estimate a positive, direct effect of human capital on TFP growth. This direct effect is hypothesized to come from domestic innovation activities. The estimated spillover effect of human capital on TFP growth is positive and statistically significant, which is very robust to model specifications and estimation methods. The spillover effect appears to be much stronger before 1994. We conduct cost-benefit analysis and a policy “experiment,” in which we project the impact increases in human capital and infrastructure capital on regional inequality. We conclude that investing in human capital will be an effective policy to reduce regional gaps in China as well as an efficient means to promote economic growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57237/1/wp857 .pd