73,514 research outputs found
Forecasting with time series imaging
Feature-based time series representations have attracted substantial
attention in a wide range of time series analysis methods. Recently, the use of
time series features for forecast model averaging has been an emerging research
focus in the forecasting community. Nonetheless, most of the existing
approaches depend on the manual choice of an appropriate set of features.
Exploiting machine learning methods to extract features from time series
automatically becomes crucial in state-of-the-art time series analysis. In this
paper, we introduce an automated approach to extract time series features based
on time series imaging. We first transform time series into recurrence plots,
from which local features can be extracted using computer vision algorithms.
The extracted features are used for forecast model averaging. Our experiments
show that forecasting based on automatically extracted features, with less
human intervention and a more comprehensive view of the raw time series data,
yields highly comparable performances with the best methods in the largest
forecasting competition dataset (M4) and outperforms the top methods in the
Tourism forecasting competition dataset
Helping AI to Play Hearthstone: AAIA'17 Data Mining Challenge
This paper summarizes the AAIA'17 Data Mining Challenge: Helping AI to Play
Hearthstone which was held between March 23, and May 15, 2017 at the Knowledge
Pit platform. We briefly describe the scope and background of this competition
in the context of a more general project related to the development of an AI
engine for video games, called Grail. We also discuss the outcomes of this
challenge and demonstrate how predictive models for the assessment of player's
winning chances can be utilized in a construction of an intelligent agent for
playing Hearthstone. Finally, we show a few selected machine learning
approaches for modeling state and action values in Hearthstone. We provide
evaluation for a few promising solutions that may be used to create more
advanced types of agents, especially in conjunction with Monte Carlo Tree
Search algorithms.Comment: Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems,
Prague (FedCSIS-2017) (Prague, Czech Republic
ASlib: A Benchmark Library for Algorithm Selection
The task of algorithm selection involves choosing an algorithm from a set of
algorithms on a per-instance basis in order to exploit the varying performance
of algorithms over a set of instances. The algorithm selection problem is
attracting increasing attention from researchers and practitioners in AI. Years
of fruitful applications in a number of domains have resulted in a large amount
of data, but the community lacks a standard format or repository for this data.
This situation makes it difficult to share and compare different approaches
effectively, as is done in other, more established fields. It also
unnecessarily hinders new researchers who want to work in this area. To address
this problem, we introduce a standardized format for representing algorithm
selection scenarios and a repository that contains a growing number of data
sets from the literature. Our format has been designed to be able to express a
wide variety of different scenarios. Demonstrating the breadth and power of our
platform, we describe a set of example experiments that build and evaluate
algorithm selection models through a common interface. The results display the
potential of algorithm selection to achieve significant performance
improvements across a broad range of problems and algorithms.Comment: Accepted to be published in Artificial Intelligence Journa
The True Destination of EGO is Multi-local Optimization
Efficient global optimization is a popular algorithm for the optimization of
expensive multimodal black-box functions. One important reason for its
popularity is its theoretical foundation of global convergence. However, as the
budgets in expensive optimization are very small, the asymptotic properties
only play a minor role and the algorithm sometimes comes off badly in
experimental comparisons. Many alternative variants have therefore been
proposed over the years. In this work, we show experimentally that the
algorithm instead has its strength in a setting where multiple optima are to be
identified
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