Re-visions of rationality?

Empirical evidence suggests proponents of the ‘adaptive toolbox’ framework of human judgment need to rethink their vision of rationality

Dubious decision evidence and criterion flexibility in recognition memory.

When old-new recognition judgments must be based on ambiguous memory evidence, a proper criterion for responding "old" can substantially improve accuracy, but participants are typically suboptimal in their placement of decision criteria. Various accounts of suboptimal criterion placement have been proposed. The most parsimonious, however, is that subjects simply over-rely on memory evidence - however faulty - as a basis for decisions. We tested this account with a novel recognition paradigm in which old-new discrimination was minimal and critical errors were avoided by adopting highly liberal or conservative biases. In Experiment 1, criterion shifts were necessary to adapt to changing target probabilities or, in a "security patrol" scenario, to avoid either letting dangerous people go free (misses) or harming innocent people (false alarms). Experiment 2 added a condition in which financial incentives drove criterion shifts. Critical errors were frequent, similar across sources of motivation, and only moderately reduced by feedback. In Experiment 3, critical errors were only modestly reduced in a version of the security patrol with no study phase. These findings indicate that participants use even transparently non-probative information as an alternative to heavy reliance on a decision rule, a strategy that precludes optimal criterion placement

A problem structuring method for ecosystem-based management : the DPSIR modelling process

The purpose of this paper is to learn from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory to inform the development of Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs) both in general and in the specific context of marine management. The focus on marine management is important because it is concerned with a CAS (formed through the interconnection between natural systems, designed systems and social systems) which exemplifies their particularly ‘wicked' nature. Recognition of this compels us to take seriously the need to develop tools for knowledge elicitation and structuring which meet the demands of CAS. In marine management, chief among those tools is the DPSIR (Drivers - Pressures - State Changes - Impacts - Responses) model and, although widely applied, the extent to which it is appropriate for dealing with the demands of a CAS is questionable. Such questioning is particularly pertinent in the context of the marine environment where there is a need to not only recognise a broad range of stakeholders (a question of boundary critique) but also to manage competing knowledge (economic, local and scientific) and value claims. Hence this paper emphasises how a CAS perspective might add impetus to the development of a critical perspective on DPSIR and PSM theory and practice to promote a more systemic view of decision-making and policy development

Supporting Water Governance and Climate Change Adaptation Through Systemic Praxis

Understanding and working with multiple perspectives on issues of change is an essential part of managing “common pool” water resources. In uncertain and complex situations arising from changes in human settlements and climate, both lives and livelihoods can be at stake. One individual’s or group’s choices can adversely affect others and traditional processes of participation and legislation are often inadequate. Discourse on environmental law recognises that noncompliance with legislation is associated with weak national governance structures. A systemic approach to managing change is required to appreciate interconnections among issues at various levels and to mediate different stakeholdings. Yet there are no blueprints for effecting systemic transformations of complex situations. This paper explores how the implementation of climate change adaptation can be supported when grounded in situations, such as water governance. It draws on the authors’ experiences of systemic praxis in the water sector

Теория и моделирование гетерогенных полиномиальных нейронных сетей

We consider different mathematical models, architectures and methods for learning, selforganization and minimization of complexity for heterogeneous polynomial neural networks (PNN) in problems of vector (widened) pattern recognition, data classification and diagnostics of states. Constructive estimates for the heterogeneity index and parallelism in the process of autonomous classifying decision making with the use of PNNs of different kinds are obtained. It is shown that the parallelism, self-organization, and robustness of heterogeneous PNNs can significantly increase in group (multiagent) solutions of difficult problems in pattern recognition, image analysis, large-scale (vector) diagnostics of states, and adaptive routing of data flows.Рассмотрены различные математические модели, архитектуры и методы обучения, самоорганизации и минимизации сложности гетерогенных полиномиальных нейронных сетей (ПНС) в задачах векторного (расширенного) распознавания образов, классификации данных и диагностики состояний. Получены конструктивные оценки степени гетерогенности и параллелизма в процессе автономного принятия классифицирующих решений с помощью ПНС различных типов. Показано, что параллелизм, самоорганизация и робастность гетерогенных ПНС могут значительно возрасти при коллективном (мультиагентном) решении сложных задач распознавания образов, анализа изображений, развернутой (векторной) диагностики состояний и адаптивной маршрутизации информационных потоков