Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Automatic detection of accommodation steps as an indicator of knowledge maturing

Jointly working on shared digital artifacts – such as wikis – is a well-tried method of developing knowledge collectively within a group or organization. Our assumption is that such knowledge maturing is an accommodation process that can be measured by taking the writing process itself into account. This paper describes the development of a tool that detects accommodation automatically with the help of machine learning algorithms. We applied a software framework for task detection to the automatic identification of accommodation processes within a wiki. To set up the learning algorithms and test its performance, we conducted an empirical study, in which participants had to contribute to a wiki and, at the same time, identify their own tasks. Two domain experts evaluated the participants’ micro-tasks with regard to accommodation. We then applied an ontology-based task detection approach that identified accommodation with a rate of 79.12%. The potential use of our tool for measuring knowledge maturing online is discussed

Automatic Construction of Predictive Neuron Models through Large Scale Assimilation of Electrophysiological Data.

We report on the construction of neuron models by assimilating electrophysiological data with large-scale constrained nonlinear optimization. The method implements interior point line parameter search to determine parameters from the responses to intracellular current injections of zebra finch HVC neurons. We incorporated these parameters into a nine ionic channel conductance model to obtain completed models which we then use to predict the state of the neuron under arbitrary current stimulation. Each model was validated by successfully predicting the dynamics of the membrane potential induced by 20-50 different current protocols. The dispersion of parameters extracted from different assimilation windows was studied. Differences in constraints from current protocols, stochastic variability in neuron output, and noise behave as a residual temperature which broadens the global minimum of the objective function to an ellipsoid domain whose principal axes follow an exponentially decaying distribution. The maximum likelihood expectation of extracted parameters was found to provide an excellent approximation of the global minimum and yields highly consistent kinetics for both neurons studied. Large scale assimilation absorbs the intrinsic variability of electrophysiological data over wide assimilation windows. It builds models in an automatic manner treating all data as equal quantities and requiring minimal additional insight