Performance Evaluation And Anomaly detection in Mobile BroadBand Across Europe

With the rapidly growing market for smartphones and user’s confidence for immediate access to high-quality multimedia content, the delivery of video over wireless networks has become a big challenge. It makes it challenging to accommodate end-users with flawless quality of service. The growth of the smartphone market goes hand in hand with the development of the Internet, in which current transport protocols are being re-evaluated to deal with traffic growth. QUIC and WebRTC are new and evolving standards. The latter is a unique and evolving standard explicitly developed to meet this demand and enable a high-quality experience for mobile users of real-time communication services. QUIC has been designed to reduce Web latency, integrate security features, and allow a highquality experience for mobile users. Thus, the need to evaluate the performance of these rising protocols in a non-systematic environment is essential to understand the behavior of the network and provide the end user with a better multimedia delivery service. Since most of the work in the research community is conducted in a controlled environment, we leverage the MONROE platform to investigate the performance of QUIC and WebRTC in real cellular networks using static and mobile nodes. During this Thesis, we conduct measurements ofWebRTC and QUIC while making their data-sets public to the interested experimenter. Building such data-sets is very welcomed with the research community, opening doors to applying data science to network data-sets. The development part of the experiments involves building Docker containers that act as QUIC and WebRTC clients. These containers are publicly available to be used candidly or within the MONROE platform. These key contributions span from Chapter 4 to Chapter 5 presented in Part II of the Thesis. We exploit data collection from MONROE to apply data science over network data-sets, which will help identify networking problems shifting the Thesis focus from performance evaluation to a data science problem. Indeed, the second part of the Thesis focuses on interpretable data science. Identifying network problems leveraging Machine Learning (ML) has gained much visibility in the past few years, resulting in dramatically improved cellular network services. However, critical tasks like troubleshooting cellular networks are still performed manually by experts who monitor the network around the clock. In this context, this Thesis contributes by proposing the use of simple interpretable ML algorithms, moving away from the current trend of high-accuracy ML algorithms (e.g., deep learning) that do not allow interpretation (and hence understanding) of their outcome. We prefer having lower accuracy since we consider it interesting (anomalous) the scenarios misclassified by the ML algorithms, and we do not want to miss them by overfitting. To this aim, we present CIAN (from Causality Inference of Anomalies in Networks), a practical and interpretable ML methodology, which we implement in the form of a software tool named TTrees (from Troubleshooting Trees) and compare it to a supervised counterpart, named STress (from Supervised Trees). Both methodologies require small volumes of data and are quick at training. Our experiments using real data from operational commercial mobile networks e.g., sampled with MONROE probes, show that STrees and CIAN can automatically identify and accurately classify network anomalies—e.g., cases for which a low network performance is not justified by operational conditions—training with just a few hundreds of data samples, hence enabling precise troubleshooting actions. Most importantly, our experiments show that a fully automated unsupervised approach is viable and efficient. In Part III of the Thesis which includes Chapter 6 and 7. In conclusion, in this Thesis, we go through a data-driven networking roller coaster, from performance evaluating upcoming network protocols in real mobile networks to building methodologies that help identify and classify the root cause of networking problems, emphasizing the fact that these methodologies are easy to implement and can be deployed in production environments.This work has been supported by IMDEA Networks InstitutePrograma de Doctorado en Multimedia y Comunicaciones por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid y la Universidad Rey Juan CarlosPresidente: Matteo Sereno.- Secretario: Antonio de la Oliva Delgado.- Vocal: Raquel Barco Moren

Designs efficiency for non-market valuation with choice modelling: how to measure it, what to report and why

We review the basic principles for the evaluation of design efficiency in discrete choice modelling with a focus on efficiency of WTP estimates from the multinomial logit model. The discussion is developed under the realistic assumption that researchers can plausibly define a prior on the utility coefficients. Some new measures of design performance in applied studies are proposed and their rationale discussed. An empirical example based on the generation and comparison of fifteen separate designs from a common set of assumptions illustrates the relevant considerations to the context of non-market valuation, with particular emphasis placed on C-efficiency. Conclusions are drawn for the practice of reporting in non-market valuation and for future work on design research

Towards Guidelines for Assessing Qualities of Machine Learning Systems

Nowadays, systems containing components based on machine learning (ML) methods are becoming more widespread. In order to ensure the intended behavior of a software system, there are standards that define necessary quality aspects of the system and its components (such as ISO/IEC 25010). Due to the different nature of ML, we have to adjust quality aspects or add additional ones (such as trustworthiness) and be very precise about which aspect is really relevant for which object of interest (such as completeness of training data), and how to objectively assess adherence to quality requirements. In this article, we present the construction of a quality model (i.e., evaluation objects, quality aspects, and metrics) for an ML system based on an industrial use case. This quality model enables practitioners to specify and assess quality requirements for such kinds of ML systems objectively. In the future, we want to learn how the term quality differs between different types of ML systems and come up with general guidelines for specifying and assessing qualities of ML systems.Comment: Has been accepted at the 13th International Conference on the Quality of Information and Communications Technology QUATIC2020 (https://2020.quatic.org/). QUATIC 2020 proceedings will be included in a volume of Springer CCIS Series (Communications in Computer and Information Science

Consumer's welfare and change in stochastic partial-equilibrium price

Welfare Economics;Stochastic Processes

Spike-and-Slab Priors for Function Selection in Structured Additive Regression Models

Structured additive regression provides a general framework for complex Gaussian and non-Gaussian regression models, with predictors comprising arbitrary combinations of nonlinear functions and surfaces, spatial effects, varying coefficients, random effects and further regression terms. The large flexibility of structured additive regression makes function selection a challenging and important task, aiming at (1) selecting the relevant covariates, (2) choosing an appropriate and parsimonious representation of the impact of covariates on the predictor and (3) determining the required interactions. We propose a spike-and-slab prior structure for function selection that allows to include or exclude single coefficients as well as blocks of coefficients representing specific model terms. A novel multiplicative parameter expansion is required to obtain good mixing and convergence properties in a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach and is shown to induce desirable shrinkage properties. In simulation studies and with (real) benchmark classification data, we investigate sensitivity to hyperparameter settings and compare performance to competitors. The flexibility and applicability of our approach are demonstrated in an additive piecewise exponential model with time-varying effects for right-censored survival times of intensive care patients with sepsis. Geoadditive and additive mixed logit model applications are discussed in an extensive appendix

Long-run exchange rate determination: A neural network study

Foreign Exchange;Exchange Rate;Econometrics;Neural Network