The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Investigation of HZETRN 2010 as a Tool for Single Event Effect Qualification of Avionics Systems

NASA's future missions are focused on long-duration deep space missions for human exploration which offers no options for a quick emergency return to Earth. The combination of long mission duration with no quick emergency return option leads to unprecedented spacecraft system safety and reliability requirements. It is important that spacecraft avionics systems for human deep space missions are not susceptible to Single Event Effect (SEE) failures caused by space radiation (primarily the continuous galactic cosmic ray background and the occasional solar particle event) interactions with electronic components and systems. SEE effects are typically managed during the design, development, and test (DD&T) phase of spacecraft development by using heritage hardware (if possible) and through extensive component level testing, followed by system level failure analysis tasks that are both time consuming and costly. The ultimate product of the SEE DD&T program is a prediction of spacecraft avionics reliability in the flight environment produced using various nuclear reaction and transport codes in combination with the component and subsystem level radiation test data. Previous work by Koontz, et al.1 utilized FLUKA, a Monte Carlo nuclear reaction and transport code, to calculate SEE and single event upset (SEU) rates. This code was then validated against in-flight data for a variety of spacecraft and space flight environments. However, FLUKA has a long run-time (on the order of days). CREME962, an easy to use deterministic code offering short run times, was also compared with FLUKA predictions and in-flight data. CREME96, though fast and easy to use, has not been updated in several years and underestimates secondary particle shower effects in spacecraft structural shielding mass. Thus, this paper will investigate the use of HZETRN 20103, a fast and easy to use deterministic transport code, similar to CREME96, that was developed at NASA Langley Research Center primarily for flight crew ionizing radiation dose assessments. HZETRN 2010 includes updates to address secondary particle shower effects more accurately, and might be used as another tool to verify spacecraft avionics system reliability in space flight SEE environments

Development of a sensor for microvibrations measurement in the AlbaSat CubeSat mission

openMicrovibrations on spacecraft represent an issue for payloads requiring high pointing accuracy and/or stability over time, and they might represent a particular concern for CubeSats and small satellites that, usually, are not equipped with very-high performance attitude control systems. Hence, collecting reliable measures of the vibration spectra during the operations of a CubeSat represents a significant research activity. This thesis presents the development of a sensor, configured as a payload within the AlbaSat mission, capable of accurately measuring the microvibrations in space, with particular focus on those produced by the Momentum Exchange Devices (MED), i.e., Reaction or Momentum Wheels, that represent one of the most important microvibrations sources. The thesis takes place in the framework of the AlbaSat mission. AlbaSat is a 2U CubeSat developed by a student team of the University of Padova under the “Fly Your Satellite! – Design Booster” programme promoted by the European Space Agency (ESA). The mission has four different objectives: (1) to collect measurements of the space debris environment in-situ, (2) to measure the microvibrations on board the CubeSat, (3) to precisely determine the position of the satellite through laser ranging and (4) to investigate alternative systems for possible Satellite Quantum Communication applications on nanosatellites. The requirements for the correct sizing of the sensor and the chosen physical and functional architecture are defined and presented in the thesis. A meticulous schedule for functional tests is finally outlined, aimed at verifying the correct functionality of the microvibration sensor. These tests serve as a starting point for the future development of the payload.Microvibrations on spacecraft represent an issue for payloads requiring high pointing accuracy and/or stability over time, and they might represent a particular concern for CubeSats and small satellites that, usually, are not equipped with very-high performance attitude control systems. Hence, collecting reliable measures of the vibration spectra during the operations of a CubeSat represents a significant research activity. This thesis presents the development of a sensor, configured as a payload within the AlbaSat mission, capable of accurately measuring the microvibrations in space, with particular focus on those produced by the Momentum Exchange Devices (MED), i.e., Reaction or Momentum Wheels, that represent one of the most important microvibrations sources. The thesis takes place in the framework of the AlbaSat mission. AlbaSat is a 2U CubeSat developed by a student team of the University of Padova under the “Fly Your Satellite! – Design Booster” programme promoted by the European Space Agency (ESA). The mission has four different objectives: (1) to collect measurements of the space debris environment in-situ, (2) to measure the microvibrations on board the CubeSat, (3) to precisely determine the position of the satellite through laser ranging and (4) to investigate alternative systems for possible Satellite Quantum Communication applications on nanosatellites. The requirements for the correct sizing of the sensor and the chosen physical and functional architecture are defined and presented in the thesis. A meticulous schedule for functional tests is finally outlined, aimed at verifying the correct functionality of the microvibration sensor. These tests serve as a starting point for the future development of the payload

GN&C Engineering Best Practices for Human-Rated Spacecraft Systems

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) recently completed an in-depth assessment to identify a comprehensive set of engineering considerations for the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) of safe and reliable human-rated spacecraft systems. Reliability subject matter experts, discipline experts, and systems engineering experts were brought together to synthesize the current "best practices" both at the spacecraft system and subsystems levels. The objective of this paper is to summarize, for the larger Community of Practice, the initial set of Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) engineering Best Practices as identified by this NESC assessment process

User interfaces in space science instrumentation

This thesis examines user interaction with instrumentation in the specific context of space science. It gathers together existing practice in machine interfaces with a look at potential future usage and recommends a new approach to space science projects with the intention of maximising their science return. It first takes a historical perspective on user interfaces and ways of defining and measuring the science return of a space instrument. Choices of research methodology are considered. Implementation details such as the concepts of usability, mental models, affordance and presentation of information are described, and examples of existing interfaces in space science are given. A set of parameters for use in analysing and synthesizing a user interface is derived by using a set of case studies of diverse failures and from previous work. A general space science user analysis is made by looking at typical practice, and an interview plus persona technique is used to group users with interface designs. An examination is made of designs in the field of astronomical instrumentation interfaces, showing the evolution of current concepts and including ideas capable of sustaining progress in the future. The parameters developed earlier are then tested against several established interfaces in the space science context to give a degree of confidence in their use. The concept of a simulator that is used to guide the development of an instrument over the whole lifecycle is described, and the idea is proposed that better instrumentation would result from more efficient use of the resources available. The previous ideas in this thesis are then brought together to describe a proposed new approach to a typical development programme, with an emphasis on user interaction. The conclusion shows that there is significant room for improvement in the science return from space instrumentation by attention to the user interface

Systems Engineering Challenges for GSFC Space Science Mission Operations

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Space Science Mission Operations (SSMO) project currently manages19 missions for the NASA Science Mission Directorate, within the Planetary, Astrophysics, and Heliophysics Divisions. The mission lifespans range from just a few months to more than20 years. The WIND spacecraft, the oldest SSMO mission, was launched in 1994. SSMO spacecraft reside in low earth, geosynchronous,highly elliptical, libration point, lunar, heliocentric,and Martian orbits. SSMO spacecraft range in size from 125kg (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM)) to over 4000kg (Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope (Fermi)). The attitude modes include both spin and three-axis stabilized, with varying requirements on pointing accuracy. The spacecraft are operated from control centers at Goddard and off-site control centers;the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS)mission were built at Goddard. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Wind are operated out of a multi-mission operations center, which will also host several SSMO-managed cubesats in 2017. This paper focuses on the systems engineeringchallenges for such a large and varied fleet of spacecraft

Third International Symposium on Space Mission Operations and Ground Data Systems, part 2

Under the theme of 'Opportunities in Ground Data Systems for High Efficiency Operations of Space Missions,' the SpaceOps '94 symposium included presentations of more than 150 technical papers spanning five topic areas: Mission Management, Operations, Data Management, System Development, and Systems Engineering. The symposium papers focus on improvements in the efficiency, effectiveness, and quality of data acquisition, ground systems, and mission operations. New technology, methods, and human systems are discussed. Accomplishments are also reported in the application of information systems to improve data retrieval, reporting, and archiving; the management of human factors; the use of telescience and teleoperations; and the design and implementation of logistics support for mission operations. This volume covers expert systems, systems development tools and approaches, and systems engineering issues

The polarimetric and helioseismic imager on solar orbiter

This paper describes the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager on the Solar Orbiter mission (SO/PHI), the first magnetograph and helioseismology instrument to observe the Sun from outside the Sun-Earth line. It is the key instrument meant to address the top-level science question: How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere? SO/PHI will also play an important role in answering the other top-level science questions of Solar Orbiter, as well as hosting the potential of a rich return in further science. SO/PHI measures the Zeeman effect and the Doppler shift in the FeI 617.3nm spectral line. To this end, the instrument carries out narrow-band imaging spectro-polarimetry using a tunable LiNbO_3 Fabry-Perot etalon, while the polarisation modulation is done with liquid crystal variable retarders (LCVRs). The line and the nearby continuum are sampled at six wavelength points and the data are recorded by a 2kx2k CMOS detector. To save valuable telemetry, the raw data are reduced on board, including being inverted under the assumption of a Milne-Eddington atmosphere, although simpler reduction methods are also available on board. SO/PHI is composed of two telescopes; one, the Full Disc Telescope (FDT), covers the full solar disc at all phases of the orbit, while the other, the High Resolution Telescope (HRT), can resolve structures as small as 200km on the Sun at closest perihelion. The high heat load generated through proximity to the Sun is greatly reduced by the multilayer-coated entrance windows to the two telescopes that allow less than 4% of the total sunlight to enter the instrument, most of it in a narrow wavelength band around the chosen spectral line

The Solar Orbiter SPICE instrument: An extreme UV imaging spectrometer

Aims. The Spectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment (SPICE) instrument is a high-resolution imaging spectrometer operating at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths. In this paper, we present the concept, design, and pre-launch performance of this facility instrument on the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission. / Methods. The goal of this paper is to give prospective users a better understanding of the possible types of observations, the data acquisition, and the sources that contribute to the instrument’s signal. / Results. The paper discusses the science objectives, with a focus on the SPICE-specific aspects, before presenting the instrument’s design, including optical, mechanical, thermal, and electronics aspects. This is followed by a characterisation and calibration of the instrument’s performance. The paper concludes with descriptions of the operations concept and data processing. / Conclusions. The performance measurements of the various instrument parameters meet the requirements derived from the mission’s science objectives. The SPICE instrument is ready to perform measurements that will provide vital contributions to the scientific success of the Solar Orbiter mission

Global Geospace Science/Polar Plasma Laboratory: POLAR

The Global Geospace Science (GGS) Project is discussed as part of the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. The objectives of Polar Plasma Laboratory (POLAR), one of the two spacecraft to be used by the Project to fill critical gaps in the scientific understanding of solar and plasma physics, are outlined. POLAR Laboratory is described, along with POLAR instrumentation, support subsystems, and orbits. Launch vehicle and injection into orbit are also addressed