Applying data mining in telecommunications

This thesis applies data mining in commercial settings in the telecommunications industry. The research for this thesis has been performed at T-Mobile Netherlands B.V. and the methods described in some of the chapters have been also applied in Deutsche Telekom subsidiaries in other countries. We had a rare opportunity to work on real commercial data sets and have the results of our research deployed in practice. Throughout this thesis we describe some of the challenges that data miners (or data scientists) meet when working on business problems and our solutions to these problems. The complex data sets we were analyzing contained in certain cases millions of records. In this research we were using simple methods combined in innovative ways to achieve results that were either an improvement on how the business was previously solving these problems or solving important business problems that were not addressed before in such detail. We address the stages of CRISP-DM (CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining), and our main focus is on the stages least covered in literature.T-Mobile Netherlands B.V.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Portfolio entrepreneurs and economic growth: the case of Uganda

Many developing countries have not benefited from the technological changes that have taken place over the last 30 years. Uganda has been no exception. The country continues to have over 30 percent of its people below the poverty line. This is despite the appropriateness of macro economic policy and government action in many of these countries. Even in the developed countries, slowness in growth has been attributed to lack of enterprise rather than policy and government action. For this reason, governments and multilateral institutions like the World Bank, have attributed the continued poverty or the slow growth to other factors like governance, institutions but more importantly, entrepreneurship. Classical, and indeed neo-classical economists, did not pay much attention to entrepreneurship as a determinant of growth and therefore this relationship has not been explored in most of the research that has attempted to explain determinants of economic growth. It was Schumpeter who suggested that the entrepreneur had a role in economic growth but no empirical studies have been undertaken to verify this. Thus was until recently when the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) studies were initiated in 1999 led by Paul Reynolds who had done some previous research in this area. The current GEM studies have focused on small firms and yet the model has existing large firms. This study identifies this gap and it is that gap that the study attempts to explain. Having no firm theoretical foundation, the study adopted an inductive approach using mainly qualitative techniques but also adopted quantitative techniques given the nature of the relationship among the variables. Theoretical sampling was used initially to identify the study population. The study identified large scale portfolio entrepreneurs as a unit of analysis and Uganda being a small country, it was possible to assume some kind of laboratory conditions in which the study was undertaken. The study’s overall aim was to establish whether a relationship existed between entrepreneurship and economic growth. To achieve this, the study examined the patterns of growth in the Uganda economy between 1962-2005, the opportunities, the macro economic policy in place, the opportunities that emerged and the role of the entrepreneur in those conditions. The study also examined the emergence of new industries in the economy, the start-ups and exits of firms in the respective industries and the role of the entrepreneur and how this related to economic growth. To secure the data, the study used a case study design for portfolio entrepreneurs combined with a survey for small and medium and corporate entrepreneurs. Unstructured interviews were conducted with portfolio entrepreneurs and self administered questionnaires were used for the other respondents. Secondary data were collected from numerous published sources. The study confirmed that there existed a relationship between macro economic policy and economic growth which confirmed assertions by mainstream economists. The study also established that a relationship existed between entrepreneurship and economic growth. The Uganda economy as a small economy gives that ability to see the relationship. The study reveals, using the Uganda economy, that large scale portfolio entrepreneurs have an important role to play in orchestrating economic growth through their activities of start-up, job creation and infrastructural development. The study further confirms that liberalization of an economy as in the case of Uganda creates opportunities and that these opportunities are seized by entrepreneurs. Portfolio entrepreneurs play a key role in this process. Technology too has an important role among other factors. As an industry is formed, many new firms enter it. This creates competition. Competition may lead to development of new technologies, products, services and processes. This leads to firm exiting the industry. The start-up and exit of firms in an industry leads to job creation and loss. It is this process that Schumpeter called the creative destruction where job creation and job losses that creates growth. This study brings out the importance of the large scale portfolio entrepreneurs, how they start business, perceive opportunities, and compete. The conclusions from the study are that a relationship exists between entrepreneurial activity and economic growth, and that large scale entrepreneurs have a major role to play in an economy. They are job creators, tax payers, wealth creators, and through the multiplier effect. There is need for deductive studies in an attempt to confirm this relationship

Make way for the algorithms: symbolic actions and change in a regime of knowing

When actors deem technological change undesirable, they may act symbolically by pretending to comply while avoiding real change. In our study of the introduction of an algorithmic technology in a sales organization, we found that such symbolic conformity led unintendedly to the full implementation of the suggested technological change. To explain this surprising outcome we advance a regime-of-knowing lens that helps to analyze deep challenges happening ‘under the surface’ during the process of technology introduction. A regime of knowing guides what is worth knowing, what actions matter to acquire this knowledge, and who has the authority to make decisions around those issues. We found that both the technologists who introduced the algorithmic technology, as well as the incumbent workers whose work was affected by the change, used symbolic actions to either defend the established regime of knowing or to advocate a radical change. While the incumbent workers enacted symbolic conformity by pretending to comply with suggested changes, the technologists performed symbolic advocacy by presenting a positive side of the technological change. Ironically, because the symbolic conformity enabled and was reinforced by symbolic advocacy, reinforcing cycles of symbolic actions yielded a radical change in the sales' regime of knowing: from one focused on a deep understanding of customers via personal contact and strong relationships, to one based upon model predictions from the processing of large datasets. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the introduction of technology at work and for knowing in the workplace.Cambridge Judge Business School internal gran

Can Upward Brand Extensions be an Opportunity for Marketing Managers During the Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond?

Early COVID-19 research has guided current managerial practice by introducing more products across different product categories as consumers tried to avoid perceived health risks from food shortages, i.e. horizontal brand extensions. For example, Leon, a fast-food restaurant in the UK, introduced a new range of ready meal products. However, when the food supply stabilised, availability may no longer be a concern for consumers. Instead, job losses could be a driver of higher perceived financial risks. Meanwhile, it remains unknown whether the perceived health or financial risks play a more significant role on consumers’ consumptions. Our preliminary survey shows perceived health risks outperform perceived financial risks to positively influence purchase intention during COVID-19. We suggest such a result indicates an opportunity for marketers to consider introducing premium priced products, i.e. upward brand extensions. The risk-as�feelings and signalling theories were used to explain consumer choice under risk may adopt affective heuristic processing, using minimal cognitive efforts to evaluate products. Based on this, consumers are likely to be affected by the salient high-quality and reliable product cue of upward extension signalled by its premium price level, which may attract consumers to purchase when they have high perceived health risks associated with COVID-19. Addressing this, a series of experimental studies confirm that upward brand extensions (versus normal new product introductions) can positively moderate the positive effect between perceived health risks associated with COVID-19 and purchase intention. Such an effect can be mediated by affective heuristic information processing. The results contribute to emergent COVID-19 literature and managerial practice during the pandemic but could also inform post-pandemic thinking around vertical brand extensions

Make way for the algorithms:Symbolic actions and change in a regime of knowing

When actors deem technological change undesirable, they may act symbolically by pretending to comply while avoiding real change. In our study of the introduction of an algorithmic technology in a sales organization, we found that such symbolic conformity led unintendedly to the full implementation of the suggested technological change. To explain this surprising outcome, we advance a regime-of-knowing lens that helps to analyze deep challenges happening under the surface during the process of technology introduction. A regime of knowing guides what is worth knowing, what actions matter to acquire this knowledge, and who has the authority to make decisions around those issues. We found that both the technologists who introduced the algorithmic technology, and the incumbent workers whose work was affected by the change, used symbolic actions to either defend the established regime of knowing or to advocate a radical change. Although the incumbent workers enacted symbolic conformity by pretending to comply with suggested changes, the technologists performed symbolic advocacy by presenting a positive side of the technological change. Ironically, because the symbolic conformity enabled and was reinforced by symbolic advocacy, reinforcing cycles of symbolic actions yielded a radical change in the sales' regime of knowing: from one focused on a deep understanding of customers via personal contact and strong relationships, to one based on model predictions from the processing of large datasets. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the introduction of technology at work and for knowing in the workplace

Corporate finance and option theory: an extension model of rao and stevens (2007)

El objetivo planteado es contribuir a la teoría y práctica de la valoración financiera de la empresa estudiando la influencia que sobre dicha valoración ejercen integradamente gobierno, accionistas, acreedores, empleados y clientes. La necesaria flexibilidad de la vida empresarial se modeliza usando la metodología de las opciones, tanto ordinarias como reales. Las principales novedades se hallan en los dos ámbitos siguientes: 1) de carácter instrumental, que consiste en la forma de utilizar las opciones; 2) en la introducción y cuantificación del papel que empleados y clientes desempeñan en la creación de valor por parte de la firma. Este planteamiento pretende dar un paso adelante en la línea de evaluación de la remuneración de los empleados (lo que podría permitir la mejora de los esquemas de remuneración actualmente utilizados) así como en la de clasificar la clientela de acuerdo al valor añadido que estos dos grupos de personas (stakeholders) hayan aportado durante el ejercicio económico La investigación realizada abre importantes líneas de avance para el futuro, muchas de ellas reseñadas en la Tesis, que indudablemente servirán como hoja de ruta para ir completando el marco de trabajo aquí establecido. El actual estado de desarrollo de nuestros sistemas económicos necesitan nuevos enfoques, siendo muy prometedor el aquí planteado y utilizado.This thesis focuses on the field of market valuation of relatively large firms and it refers markets with “normal” behavior, where classical assumptions apply, such as rationality and dynamical stability, in an attempt to investigate the firm's value creation so as to reveal the contribution of all possible stakeholders that might be involved in the formation of the market value of a firm. The literature review related to valuation models, especially the DCF model, has shown that the conceptual frame of Modigliani and Miller, to determine the market value of a firm as it is understood today, is too restricted because only three types of stakeholders (shareholders, debtholders and government) are considered. This work contributes to build an extending valuation model which incorporates some other stakeholders (different from shareholders, debtholders and government), such as employees and clients so as to reflect their influence on the firm's market value. Based upon the work of Rao and Stevens (2007) which reflects the role of the three types of stakeholders with a special emphasis on the role of government, real options theory is applied here to quantify the value created through a major degree of loyalty and capture policies for both employees and clients. One fundamental option is proposed when building the model and it is related to the employees' and clients' portfolio of a firm, which has options to improve returns by driving up the motivations of employees, the fidelity of clients, the capture of talents, the information campaigns to clients and/or investors. Through applying real options theory, this thesis finds an appropriate way for treating the uncertainty and integrating the risks associated with it in valuation models, along with considering the flexibility as an ingredient of value in managerial decisions, increasing the capability to give alternative actions. The approach in this thesis is almost theoretical with a possible scheme for empirical experiments suggested for future research. The results achieved attempt to suggest that there exists communication vehicles for the information about an increase of the satisfaction degree of employees and customers in such way to be truly transmitted to investors and thus to be converted into an increase of the firm's market value

PROFILING - CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

Profiling is an approach to put a label or a set of labels on a subject, considering the characteristics of this subject. The New Oxford American Dictionary defines profiling as: “recording and analysis of a person’s psychological and behavioral characteristics, so as to assess or predict his/her capabilities in a certain sphere or to assist in identifying a particular subgroup of people”. This research extends this definition towards things demonstrating that many methods used for profiling of people may be applied for a different type of subjects, namely things. The goal of this research concerns proposing methods for discovery of profiles of users and things with application of Data Science methods. The profiles are utilized in vertical and 2 horizontal scenarios and concern such domains as smart grid and telecommunication (vertical scenarios), and support provided both for the needs of authorization and personalization (horizontal usage).:The thesis consists of eight chapters including an introduction and a summary. First chapter describes motivation for work that was carried out for the last 8 years together with discussion on its importance both for research and business practice. The motivation for this work is much broader and emerges also from business importance of profiling and personalization. The introduction summarizes major research directions, provides research questions, goals and supplementary objectives addressed in the thesis. Research methodology is also described, showing impact of methodological aspects on the work undertaken. Chapter 2 provides introduction to the notion of profiling. The definition of profiling is introduced. Here, also a relation of a user profile to an identity is discussed. The papers included in this chapter show not only how broadly a profile may be understood, but also how a profile may be constructed considering different data sources. Profiling methods are introduced in Chapter 3. This chapter refers to the notion of a profile developed using the BFI-44 personality test and outcomes of a survey related to color preferences of people with a specific personality. Moreover, insights into profiling of relations between people are provided, with a focus on quality of a relation emerging from contacts between two entities. Chapters from 4 to 7 present different scenarios that benefit from application of profiling methods. Chapter 4 starts with introducing the notion of a public utility company that in the thesis is discussed using examples from smart grid and telecommunication. Then, in chapter 4 follows a description of research results regarding profiling for the smart grid, focusing on a profile of a prosumer and forecasting demand and production of the electric energy in the smart grid what can be influenced e.g. by weather or profiles of appliances. Chapter 5 presents application of profiling techniques in the field of telecommunication. Besides presenting profiling methods based on telecommunication data, in particular on Call Detail Records, also scenarios and issues related to privacy and trust are addressed. Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 target at horizontal applications of profiling that may be of benefit for multiple domains. Chapter 6 concerns profiling for authentication using un-typical data sources such as Call Detail Records or data from a mobile phone describing the user behavior. Besides proposing methods, also limitations are discussed. In addition, as a side research effect a methodology for evaluation of authentication methods is proposed. Chapter 7 concerns personalization and consists of two diverse parts. Firstly, behavioral profiles to change interface and behavior of the system are proposed and applied. The performance of solutions personalizing content either locally or on the server is studied. Then, profiles of customers of shopping centers are created based on paths identified using Call Detail Records. The analysis demonstrates that the data that is collected for one purpose, may significantly influence other business scenarios. Chapter 8 summarizes the research results achieved by the author of this document. It presents contribution over state of the art as well as some insights into the future work planned