5,708 research outputs found

    West Nile virus spread in Europe: phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers

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    BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in birds, humans, and livestock have occurred in multiple areas in Europe and have had a significant impact on animal and human health. The patterns of emergence and spread of WNV in Europe are very different from those in the US and understanding these are important for guiding preparedness activities.METHODS: We mapped the evolution and spread history of WNV in Europe by incorporating viral genome sequences and epidemiological data into phylodynamic models. Spatially explicit phylogeographic models were developed to explore the possible contribution of different drivers to viral dispersal direction and velocity. A "skygrid-GLM" approach was used to identify how changes in environments would predict viral genetic diversity variations over time.FINDINGS: Among the six lineages found in Europe, WNV-2a (a sub-lineage of WNV-2) has been predominant (accounting for 73% of all sequences obtained in Europe that have been shared in the public domain) and has spread to at least 14 countries. In the past two decades, WNV-2a has evolved into two major co-circulating clusters, both originating from Central Europe, but with distinct dynamic history and transmission patterns. WNV-2a spreads at a high dispersal velocity (88km/yr-215 km/yr) which is correlated to bird movements. Notably, amongst multiple drivers that could affect the spread of WNV, factors related to land use were found to strongly influence the spread of WNV. Specifically, the intensity of agricultural activities (defined by factors related to crops and livestock production, such as coverage of cropland, pasture, cultivated and managed vegetation, livestock density) were positively associated with both spread direction and velocity. In addition, WNV spread direction was associated with high coverage of wetlands and migratory bird flyways.CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that-in addition to ecological conditions favouring bird- and mosquito- presence-agricultural land use may be a significant driver of WNV emergence and spread. Our study also identified significant gaps in data and the need to strengthen virological surveillance in countries of Central Europe from where WNV outbreaks are likely seeded. Enhanced monitoring for early detection of further dispersal could be targeted to areas with high agricultural activities and habitats of migratory birds.</p

    Bridging boundaries: Exploring vineyard, management and variety characteristics influencing long-term infection of grapevine pathogens

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    Globalisation, climatic changes, and increasing consumer demand have forced the intensification of agricultural production. Thus, vineyards have crossed the boundaries of the original production zones and extended towards suboptimal areas, increasing the potential risk of damaging disease outbreaks. Therefore, there is a rising need for a complex and empirical revision of the interfering effects between grape infection and other external, large-scale factors such as environmental conditions and management practices. Although external abiotic and biotic factors could determine the infection levels of grape disease in a complex way, existing studies focus on the short-term effects of only a single or very few potential factors. In this large-scale study, we aimed to reveal the long-term impact of specific factors regarding vineyard characteristics, applied crop management and grape variety features, which could determine the infection severity of primary grape diseases (grey mould, downy mildew and powdery mildew) using a citizen science approach in Hungary, a traditional wine- and grape-producing country. The present study has revealed that some vineyards (e.g., inclination, row orientation) and variety features (e.g., bunch structure) were considered crucial. At the same time, other factors were found to be less relevant in the present complex comparison, suggesting that the role of these factors might be overemphasised in the literature. In conclusion, the susceptibility or tolerance of grapevines to pathogens appears to be an integrated effect of several factors and cannot be assigned to a single characteristic. The global changes urge the revision of conventional agricultural traditions and deepen our knowledge about the infection process and pathogen-host-environment interactions

    Stony coral tissue loss disease: a review of emergence, impacts, etiology, diagnostics, and intervention

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    Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is destructive and poses a significant threat to Caribbean coral reef ecosystems. Characterized by the acute loss of coral tissue, SCTLD has impacted over 22 stony coral species across the Caribbean region, leading to visible declines in reef health. Based on the duration, lethality, host range, and spread of this disease, SCTLD is considered the most devastating coral disease outbreak ever recorded. Researchers are actively investigating the cause and transmission of SCTLD, but the exact mechanisms, triggers, and etiological agent(s) remain elusive. If left unchecked, SCTLD could have profound implications for the health and resilience of coral reefs worldwide. To summarize what is known about this disease and identify potential knowledge gaps, this review provides a holistic overview of SCTLD research, including species susceptibility, disease transmission, ecological impacts, etiology, diagnostic tools, host defense mechanisms, and treatments. Additionally, future research avenues are highlighted, which are also relevant for other coral diseases. As SCTLD continues to spread, collaborative efforts are necessary to develop effective strategies for mitigating its impacts on critical coral reef ecosystems. These collaborative efforts need to include researchers from diverse backgrounds and underrepresented groups to provide additional perspectives for a disease that requires creative and urgent solutions

    Strategy Tripod Perspective on the Determinants of Airline Efficiency in A Global Context: An Application of DEA and Tobit Analysis

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    The airline industry is vital to contemporary civilization since it is a key player in the globalization process: linking regions, fostering global commerce, promoting tourism and aiding economic and social progress. However, there has been little study on the link between the operational environment and airline efficiency. Investigating the amalgamation of institutions, organisations and strategic decisions is critical to understanding how airlines operate efficiently. This research aims to employ the strategy tripod perspective to investigate the efficiency of a global airline sample using a non-parametric linear programming method (data envelopment analysis [DEA]). Using a Tobit regression, the bootstrapped DEA efficiency change scores are further regressed to determine the drivers of efficiency. The strategy tripod is employed to assess the impact of institutions, industry and resources on airline efficiency. Institutions are measured by global indices of destination attractiveness; industry, including competition, jet fuel and business model; and finally, resources, such as the number of full-time employees, alliances, ownership and connectivity. The first part of the study uses panel data from 35 major airlines, collected from their annual reports for the period 2011 to 2018, and country attractiveness indices from global indicators. The second part of the research involves a qualitative data collection approach and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the first part’s significant findings. The main findings reveal that airlines operate at a highly competitive level regardless of their competition intensity or origin. Furthermore, the unpredictability of the environment complicates airline operations. The efficiency drivers of an airline are partially determined by its type of business model, its degree of cooperation and how fuel cost is managed. Trade openness has a negative influence on airline efficiency. COVID-19 has toppled the airline industry, forcing airlines to reconsider their business model and continuously increase cooperation. Human resources, sustainability and alternative fuel sources are critical to airline survival. Finally, this study provides some evidence for the practicality of the strategy tripod and hints at the need for a broader approach in the study of international strategies

    Location Reference Recognition from Texts: A Survey and Comparison

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    A vast amount of location information exists in unstructured texts, such as social media posts, news stories, scientific articles, web pages, travel blogs, and historical archives. Geoparsing refers to recognizing location references from texts and identifying their geospatial representations. While geoparsing can benefit many domains, a summary of its specific applications is still missing. Further, there is a lack of a comprehensive review and comparison of existing approaches for location reference recognition, which is the first and core step of geoparsing. To fill these research gaps, this review first summarizes seven typical application domains of geoparsing: geographic information retrieval, disaster management, disease surveillance, traffic management, spatial humanities, tourism management, and crime management. We then review existing approaches for location reference recognition by categorizing these approaches into four groups based on their underlying functional principle: rule-based, gazetteer matching–based, statistical learning-–based, and hybrid approaches. Next, we thoroughly evaluate the correctness and computational efficiency of the 27 most widely used approaches for location reference recognition based on 26 public datasets with different types of texts (e.g., social media posts and news stories) containing 39,736 location references worldwide. Results from this thorough evaluation can help inform future methodological developments and can help guide the selection of proper approaches based on application needs

    Climate Change and Critical Agrarian Studies

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    Climate change is perhaps the greatest threat to humanity today and plays out as a cruel engine of myriad forms of injustice, violence and destruction. The effects of climate change from human-made emissions of greenhouse gases are devastating and accelerating; yet are uncertain and uneven both in terms of geography and socio-economic impacts. Emerging from the dynamics of capitalism since the industrial revolution — as well as industrialisation under state-led socialism — the consequences of climate change are especially profound for the countryside and its inhabitants. The book interrogates the narratives and strategies that frame climate change and examines the institutionalised responses in agrarian settings, highlighting what exclusions and inclusions result. It explores how different people — in relation to class and other co-constituted axes of social difference such as gender, race, ethnicity, age and occupation — are affected by climate change, as well as the climate adaptation and mitigation responses being implemented in rural areas. The book in turn explores how climate change – and the responses to it - affect processes of social differentiation, trajectories of accumulation and in turn agrarian politics. Finally, the book examines what strategies are required to confront climate change, and the underlying political-economic dynamics that cause it, reflecting on what this means for agrarian struggles across the world. The 26 chapters in this volume explore how the relationship between capitalism and climate change plays out in the rural world and, in particular, the way agrarian struggles connect with the huge challenge of climate change. Through a huge variety of case studies alongside more conceptual chapters, the book makes the often-missing connection between climate change and critical agrarian studies. The book argues that making the connection between climate and agrarian justice is crucial

    Modelling spatiotemporal patterns of visceral leishmaniasis incidence in two endemic states in India using environment, bioclimatic and demographic data, 2013-2022.

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    BACKGROUND: As of 2021, the National Kala-azar Elimination Programme (NKAEP) in India has achieved visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination (93% and 99% coverage probability (proportion of observations falling inside 95% Bayesian credible interval for the predicted number of VL cases per month) during the training and testing periods. PIT (probability integral transform) histograms confirmed consistency between prediction and observation for the test period. Forecasting for 2021-2023 showed that the annual VL incidence is likely to exceed elimination threshold in 16-18 blocks in 4 districts of Jharkhand and 33-38 blocks in 10 districts of Bihar. The risk of VL in non-endemic neighbouring blocks of both Bihar and Jharkhand are less than 0.5 during the training and test periods, and for 2021-2023, the probability that the risk greater than 1 is negligible (P<0.1). Fitted model showed that VL occurrence was positively associated with mean temperature, minimum temperature, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation, and isothermality, and negatively with maximum temperature, land surface temperature, soil moisture and population density. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The spatiotemporal model incorporating environmental, bioclimatic, and demographic factors demonstrated that the KAMIS database of the national programmme can be used for block level predictions of long-term spatial and temporal trends in VL incidence and risk of outbreak / resurgence in endemic and non-endemic settings. The database integrated with the modelling framework and a dashboard facility can facilitate such analysis and predictions. This could aid the programme to monitor progress of VL elimination at least one-year ahead, assess risk of resurgence or outbreak in post-elimination settings, and implement timely and targeted interventions or preventive measures so that the NKAEP meet the target of achieving elimination by 2030

    The Epidemiology and Management of Kawasaki Disease in Australia

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    Kawasaki disease (KD) is a syndrome of systemic inflammation with the potential to cause life-threatening aneurysms of the coronary arteries. I sought to contribute to our understanding of this important condition, particularly with regard to Australian children. By determining the hospitalisation rate and IVIG-treatment rate I estimated the incidence of KD to be about 14 per 100,000 children under the age of 5 between 2007 and 2015. I also showed that the hospitalisation rate nationally had increased on average 3.5% annually between 1993 and 2018, with significant changes in the age distribution over that period. In collaboration with the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance (PAEDS) network, I undertook a large multicentre prospective surveillance study of KD in Australia. My analysis of that cohort confirmed several of the findings from the survey, such as the preference of Australian clinicians for low-dose aspirin from the time of diagnosis, and the considerable variability around how IVIG resistance is diagnosed and managed. Importantly, I observed that a significant subset of children diagnosed with, and treated for, KD do not meet the diagnostic criteria outlined in the 2017 statement by the American Heart Association. This work has contributed significantly to the understanding of KD’s epidemiology, management, and outcomes in Australia. I have shown that the incidence of the condition is increasing, and the clinical picture is changing. I identified important areas of practice variation and highlighted the need for international collaboration around agreed definitions (such as for IVIG resistance). Finally, I have played a central role in establishing an important resource for future resource: prospective surveillance of KD in Australia continues, with well over 700 cases recruited so far. It is hoped that this work will be of benefit to the researchers, clinicians, patients, and families affected by KD now, and into the future
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