Model reconstruction from temporal data for coupled oscillator networks

In a complex system, the interactions between individual agents often lead to emergent collective behavior like spontaneous synchronization, swarming, and pattern formation. The topology of the network of interactions can have a dramatic influence over those dynamics. In many studies, researchers start with a specific model for both the intrinsic dynamics of each agent and the interaction network, and attempt to learn about the dynamics that can be observed in the model. Here we consider the inverse problem: given the dynamics of a system, can one learn about the underlying network? We investigate arbitrary networks of coupled phase-oscillators whose dynamics are characterized by synchronization. We demonstrate that, given sufficient observational data on the transient evolution of each oscillator, one can use machine learning methods to reconstruct the interaction network and simultaneously identify the parameters of a model for the intrinsic dynamics of the oscillators and their coupling.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 16 table

Modeling and Estimation for Self-Exciting Spatio-Temporal Models of Terrorist Activity

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal diffusion is placed, as a matter of convenience, in the process model allowing for straightforward estimation of the diffusion parameters through Bayesian techniques. However, this method of modeling does not allow for the existence of self-excitation, or a temporal data model dependency, that has been shown to exist in criminal and terrorism data. In this manuscript we will use existing theories on how violence spreads to create models that allow for both spatio-temporal diffusion in the process model as well as temporal diffusion, or self-excitation, in the data model. We will further demonstrate how Laplace approximations similar to their use in Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation can be used to quickly and accurately conduct inference of self-exciting spatio-temporal models allowing practitioners a new way of fitting and comparing multiple process models. We will illustrate this approach by fitting a self-exciting spatio-temporal model to terrorism data in Iraq and demonstrate how choice of process model leads to differing conclusions on the existence of self-excitation in the data and differing conclusions on how violence is spreading spatio-temporally

Modeling space-time correlations of velocity fluctuations in wind farms

An analytical model for the streamwise velocity space-time correlations in turbulent flows is derived and applied to the special case of velocity fluctuations in large wind farms. The model is based on the Kraichnan-Tennekes random sweeping hypothesis, capturing the decorrelation in time while including a mean wind velocity in the streamwise direction. In the resulting model, the streamwise velocity space-time correlation is expressed as a convolution of the pure space correlation with an analytical temporal decorrelation kernel. Hence, the spatio-temporal structure of velocity fluctuations in wind farms can be derived from the spatial correlations only. We then explore the applicability of the model to predict spatio-temporal correlations in turbulent flows in wind farms. Comparisons of the model with data from a large eddy simulation of flow in a large, spatially periodic wind farm are performed, where needed model parameters such as spatial and temporal integral scales and spatial correlations are determined from the large eddy simulation. Good agreement is obtained between the model and large eddy simulation data showing that spatial data may be used to model the full temporal structure of fluctuations in wind farms.Comment: Submitted to Wind Energ