Dynamic Poisson Factorization

Models for recommender systems use latent factors to explain the preferences and behaviors of users with respect to a set of items (e.g., movies, books, academic papers). Typically, the latent factors are assumed to be static and, given these factors, the observed preferences and behaviors of users are assumed to be generated without order. These assumptions limit the explorative and predictive capabilities of such models, since users' interests and item popularity may evolve over time. To address this, we propose dPF, a dynamic matrix factorization model based on the recent Poisson factorization model for recommendations. dPF models the time evolving latent factors with a Kalman filter and the actions with Poisson distributions. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm to infer the latent factors. Finally, we demonstrate dPF on 10 years of user click data from arXiv.org, one of the largest repository of scientific papers and a formidable source of information about the behavior of scientists. Empirically we show performance improvement over both static and, more recently proposed, dynamic recommendation models. We also provide a thorough exploration of the inferred posteriors over the latent variables.Comment: RecSys 201

Incorporating Side Information in Probabilistic Matrix Factorization with Gaussian Processes

Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associated with pairwise relationships, finding use in collaborative filtering, computational biology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there is additional information that can assist in prediction. For example, when modeling movie ratings, we might know when the rating occurred, where the user lives, or what actors appear in the movie. It is difficult, however, to incorporate this side information into the PMF model. We propose a framework for incorporating side information by coupling together multiple PMF problems via Gaussian process priors. We replace scalar latent features with functions that vary over the space of side information. The GP priors on these functions require them to vary smoothly and share information. We successfully use this new method to predict the scores of professional basketball games, where side information about the venue and date of the game are relevant for the outcome.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Submitted to UAI 201

Probabilistic Latent Tensor Factorization Model for Link Pattern Prediction in Multi-relational Networks

This paper aims at the problem of link pattern prediction in collections of objects connected by multiple relation types, where each type may play a distinct role. While common link analysis models are limited to single-type link prediction, we attempt here to capture the correlations among different relation types and reveal the impact of various relation types on performance quality. For that, we define the overall relations between object pairs as a \textit{link pattern} which consists in interaction pattern and connection structure in the network, and then use tensor formalization to jointly model and predict the link patterns, which we refer to as \textit{Link Pattern Prediction} (LPP) problem. To address the issue, we propose a Probabilistic Latent Tensor Factorization (PLTF) model by introducing another latent factor for multiple relation types and furnish the Hierarchical Bayesian treatment of the proposed probabilistic model to avoid overfitting for solving the LPP problem. To learn the proposed model we develop an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method. Extensive experiments are conducted on several real world datasets and demonstrate significant improvements over several existing state-of-the-art methods.Comment: 19pages, 5 figure