Model of neuro-fuzzy prediction of confirmation timeout in a mobile ad hoc network

This article represents an RTT prediction model based on application of fuzzy neural network theory. This model relies upon zeroorder Sugeno-Type Fuzzy Inference algorith

Fuzzy Inference System for VOLT/VAR control in distribution substations in isolated power systems

This paper presents a fuzzy inference system for voltage/reactive power control in distribution substations. The purpose is go forward to automation distribution and its implementation in isolated power systems where control capabilities are limited and it is common using the same applications as in continental power systems. This means that lot of functionalities do not apply and computational burden generates high response times. A fuzzy controller, with logic guidelines embedded based upon heuristic rules resulting from operators at dispatch control center past experience, has been designed. Working as an on-line tool, it has been tested under real conditions and it has managed the operation during a whole day in a distribution substation. Within the limits of control capabilities of the system, the controller maintained successfully an acceptable voltage profile, power factor values over 0,98 and it has ostensibly improved the performance given by an optimal power flow based automation system

A review of the use of artificial intelligence methods in infrastructure systems

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution offers significant opportunities to capitalise on the growth of digitalisation and has the potential to enable the ‘system of systems’ approach required in increasingly complex infrastructure systems. This paper reviews the extent to which research in economic infrastructure sectors has engaged with fields of AI, to investigate the specific AI methods chosen and the purposes to which they have been applied both within and across sectors. Machine learning is found to dominate the research in this field, with methods such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests among the most popular. The automated reasoning technique of fuzzy logic has also seen widespread use, due to its ability to incorporate uncertainties in input variables. Across the infrastructure sectors of energy, water and wastewater, transport, and telecommunications, the main purposes to which AI has been applied are network provision, forecasting, routing, maintenance and security, and network quality management. The data-driven nature of AI offers significant flexibility, and work has been conducted across a range of network sizes and at different temporal and geographic scales. However, there remains a lack of integration of planning and policy concerns, such as stakeholder engagement and quantitative feasibility assessment, and the majority of research focuses on a specific type of infrastructure, with an absence of work beyond individual economic sectors. To enable solutions to be implemented into real-world infrastructure systems, research will need to move away from a siloed perspective and adopt a more interdisciplinary perspective that considers the increasing interconnectedness of these systems

Defining and applying prediction performance metrics on a recurrent NARX time series model.

International audienceNonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been successfully demonstrated for modeling the input-output behavior of many complex systems. This paper deals with the proposition of a scheme to provide time series prediction. The approach is based on a recurrent NARX model obtained by linear combination of a recurrent neural network (RNN) output and the real data output. Some prediction metrics are also proposed to assess the quality of predictions. This metrics enable to compare different prediction schemes and provide an objective way to measure how changes in training or prediction model (Neural network architecture) affect the quality of predictions. Results show that the proposed NARX approach consistently outperforms the prediction obtained by the RNN neural network

Non-Conventional Approaches To Property Value Assessment

Lack of precision is common in property value assessment. Recently non-conventional methods, such as neural networks based methods, have been introduced in property value assessment as an attempt to better address this lack of precision and uncertainty. Although fuzzy logic has been suggested as another possible solution, no other artificial intelligence methods have been applied to real estate value assessment other than neural network based methods. This paper presents the results of using two new non-conventional methods, fuzzy logic and memory-based reasoning, in evaluating residential property values for a real data set. The paper compares the results with those obtained using neural networks and multiple regression. Methods of feature reduction, such as principal component analysis and variable selection, have also been used for possible improvement of the final results.  The results indicate that no single one of the new methods is consistently superior for the given data set

Non-Conventional Approaches To Property Value Assessment

Lack of precision is common in property value assessment. Recently non-conventional methods, such as neural networks based methods, have been introduced in property value assessment as an attempt to better address this lack of precision and uncertainty. Although fuzzy logic has been suggested as another possible solution, no other artificial intelligence methods have been applied to real estate value assessment other than neural network based methods. This paper presents the results of using two new non-conventional methods, fuzzy logic and memory-based reasoning, in evaluating residential property values for a real data set. The paper compares the results with those obtained using neural networks and multiple regression. Methods of feature reduction, such as principal component analysis and variable selection, have also been used for possible improvement of the final results.  The results indicate that no single one of the new methods is consistently superior for the given data set

A soft computing decision support framework for e-learning

Tesi per compendi de publicacions.Supported by technological development and its impact on everyday activities, e-Learning and b-Learning (Blended Learning) have experienced rapid growth mainly in higher education and training. Its inherent ability to break both physical and cultural distances, to disseminate knowledge and decrease the costs of the teaching-learning process allows it to reach anywhere and anyone. The educational community is divided as to its role in the future. It is believed that by 2019 half of the world's higher education courses will be delivered through e-Learning. While supporters say that this will be the educational mode of the future, its detractors point out that it is a fashion, that there are huge rates of abandonment and that their massification and potential low quality, will cause its fall, assigning it a major role of accompanying traditional education. There are, however, two interrelated features where there seems to be consensus. On the one hand, the enormous amount of information and evidence that Learning Management Systems (LMS) generate during the e-Learning process and which is the basis of the part of the process that can be automated. In contrast, there is the fundamental role of e-tutors and etrainers who are guarantors of educational quality. These are continually overwhelmed by the need to provide timely and effective feedback to students, manage endless particular situations and casuistics that require decision making and process stored information. In this sense, the tools that e-Learning platforms currently provide to obtain reports and a certain level of follow-up are not sufficient or too adequate. It is in this point of convergence Information-Trainer, where the current developments of the LMS are centered and it is here where the proposed thesis tries to innovate. This research proposes and develops a platform focused on decision support in e-Learning environments. Using soft computing and data mining techniques, it extracts knowledge from the data produced and stored by e-Learning systems, allowing the classification, analysis and generalization of the extracted knowledge. It includes tools to identify models of students' learning behavior and, from them, predict their future performance and enable trainers to provide adequate feedback. Likewise, students can self-assess, avoid those ineffective behavior patterns, and obtain real clues about how to improve their performance in the course, through appropriate routes and strategies based on the behavioral model of successful students. The methodological basis of the mentioned functionalities is the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR), which is particularly useful in the modeling of dynamic systems. During the development of the research, the FIR methodology has been improved and empowered by the inclusion of several algorithms. First, an algorithm called CR-FIR, which allows determining the Causal Relevance that have the variables involved in the modeling of learning and assessment of students. In the present thesis, CR-FIR has been tested on a comprehensive set of classical test data, as well as real data sets, belonging to different areas of knowledge. Secondly, the detection of atypical behaviors in virtual campuses was approached using the Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) methodology, which is a probabilistic alternative to the well-known Self-Organizing Maps. GTM was used simultaneously for clustering, visualization and detection of atypical data. The core of the platform has been the development of an algorithm for extracting linguistic rules in a language understandable to educational experts, which helps them to obtain patterns of student learning behavior. In order to achieve this functionality, the LR-FIR algorithm (Extraction of Linguistic Rules in FIR) was designed and developed as an extension of FIR that allows both to characterize general behavior and to identify interesting patterns. In the case of the application of the platform to several real e-Learning courses, the results obtained demonstrate its feasibility and originality. The teachers' perception about the usability of the tool is very good, and they consider that it could be a valuable resource to mitigate the time requirements of the trainer that the e-Learning courses demand. The identification of student behavior models and prediction processes have been validated as to their usefulness by expert trainers. LR-FIR has been applied and evaluated in a wide set of real problems, not all of them in the educational field, obtaining good results. The structure of the platform makes it possible to assume that its use is potentially valuable in those domains where knowledge management plays a preponderant role, or where decision-making processes are a key element, e.g. ebusiness, e-marketing, customer management, to mention just a few. The Soft Computing tools used and developed in this research: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR and GTM, have been applied successfully in other real domains, such as music, medicine, weather behaviors, etc.Soportado por el desarrollo tecnológico y su impacto en las diferentes actividades cotidianas, el e-Learning (o aprendizaje electrónico) y el b-Learning (Blended Learning o aprendizaje mixto), han experimentado un crecimiento vertiginoso principalmente en la educación superior y la capacitación. Su habilidad inherente para romper distancias tanto físicas como culturales, para diseminar conocimiento y disminuir los costes del proceso enseñanza aprendizaje le permite llegar a cualquier sitio y a cualquier persona. La comunidad educativa se encuentra dividida en cuanto a su papel en el futuro. Se cree que para el año 2019 la mitad de los cursos de educación superior del mundo se impartirá a través del e-Learning. Mientras que los partidarios aseguran que ésta será la modalidad educativa del futuro, sus detractores señalan que es una moda, que hay enormes índices de abandono y que su masificación y potencial baja calidad, provocará su caída, reservándole un importante papel de acompañamiento a la educación tradicional. Hay, sin embargo, dos características interrelacionadas donde parece haber consenso. Por un lado, la enorme generación de información y evidencias que los sistemas de gestión del aprendizaje o LMS (Learning Management System) generan durante el proceso educativo electrónico y que son la base de la parte del proceso que se puede automatizar. En contraste, está el papel fundamental de los e-tutores y e-formadores que son los garantes de la calidad educativa. Éstos se ven continuamente desbordados por la necesidad de proporcionar retroalimentación oportuna y eficaz a los alumnos, gestionar un sin fin de situaciones particulares y casuísticas que requieren toma de decisiones y procesar la información almacenada. En este sentido, las herramientas que las plataformas de e-Learning proporcionan actualmente para obtener reportes y cierto nivel de seguimiento no son suficientes ni demasiado adecuadas. Es en este punto de convergencia Información-Formador, donde están centrados los actuales desarrollos de los LMS y es aquí donde la tesis que se propone pretende innovar. La presente investigación propone y desarrolla una plataforma enfocada al apoyo en la toma de decisiones en ambientes e-Learning. Utilizando técnicas de Soft Computing y de minería de datos, extrae conocimiento de los datos producidos y almacenados por los sistemas e-Learning permitiendo clasificar, analizar y generalizar el conocimiento extraído. Incluye herramientas para identificar modelos del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes y, a partir de ellos, predecir su desempeño futuro y permitir a los formadores proporcionar una retroalimentación adecuada. Así mismo, los estudiantes pueden autoevaluarse, evitar aquellos patrones de comportamiento poco efectivos y obtener pistas reales acerca de cómo mejorar su desempeño en el curso, mediante rutas y estrategias adecuadas a partir del modelo de comportamiento de los estudiantes exitosos. La base metodológica de las funcionalidades mencionadas es el Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR, por sus siglas en inglés), que es particularmente útil en el modelado de sistemas dinámicos. Durante el desarrollo de la investigación, la metodología FIR ha sido mejorada y potenciada mediante la inclusión de varios algoritmos. En primer lugar un algoritmo denominado CR-FIR, que permite determinar la Relevancia Causal que tienen las variables involucradas en el modelado del aprendizaje y la evaluación de los estudiantes. En la presente tesis, CR-FIR se ha probado en un conjunto amplio de datos de prueba clásicos, así como conjuntos de datos reales, pertenecientes a diferentes áreas de conocimiento. En segundo lugar, la detección de comportamientos atípicos en campus virtuales se abordó mediante el enfoque de Mapeo Topográfico Generativo (GTM), que es una alternativa probabilística a los bien conocidos Mapas Auto-organizativos. GTM se utilizó simultáneamente para agrupamiento, visualización y detección de datos atípicos. La parte medular de la plataforma ha sido el desarrollo de un algoritmo de extracción de reglas lingüísticas en un lenguaje entendible para los expertos educativos, que les ayude a obtener los patrones del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes. Para lograr dicha funcionalidad, se diseñó y desarrolló el algoritmo LR-FIR, (extracción de Reglas Lingüísticas en FIR, por sus siglas en inglés) como una extensión de FIR que permite tanto caracterizar el comportamiento general, como identificar patrones interesantes. En el caso de la aplicación de la plataforma a varios cursos e-Learning reales, los resultados obtenidos demuestran su factibilidad y originalidad. La percepción de los profesores acerca de la usabilidad de la herramienta es muy buena, y consideran que podría ser un valioso recurso para mitigar los requerimientos de tiempo del formador que los cursos e-Learning exigen. La identificación de los modelos de comportamiento de los estudiantes y los procesos de predicción han sido validados en cuanto a su utilidad por los formadores expertos. LR-FIR se ha aplicado y evaluado en un amplio conjunto de problemas reales, no todos ellos del ámbito educativo, obteniendo buenos resultados. La estructura de la plataforma permite suponer que su utilización es potencialmente valiosa en aquellos dominios donde la administración del conocimiento juegue un papel preponderante, o donde los procesos de toma de decisiones sean una pieza clave, por ejemplo, e-business, e-marketing, administración de clientes, por mencionar sólo algunos. Las herramientas de Soft Computing utilizadas y desarrolladas en esta investigación: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR y GTM, ha sido aplicadas con éxito en otros dominios reales, como música, medicina, comportamientos climáticos, etc.Postprint (published version

Development of a method for assessment and forecasting of the radio electronic environment

Decision making support systems (DSS) are actively used in all spheres of human life. The system of the electronic environment analysis is not an exception. However, there are a number of problems in the analysis of the electronic environment, for example: the signals are analyzed in a complex electronic environment against the background of intentional and natural interference. Input signals do not match the standards, and their interpretation depends on the experience of the operator (expert), the completeness of additional information on a particular task (uncertainty condition). The best solution in this situation is found in the integration with the data of the information system analysis of the electronic environment, artificial neural networks and fuzzy cognitive models. Their advantages are also the ability to work in real time and quick adaptation to specific situations. The article develops a method for assessing and forecasting the electronic environment. Improving the efficiency of evaluation information processing is achieved through the use of evolving neuro-fuzzy artificial neural networks; learning not only the synaptic weights of the artificial neural network, the type and parameters of the membership function. The efficiency of information processing is also achieved through training in the architecture of artificial neural networks; taking into account the type of uncertainty of the information that has to be assessed; synthesis of rational structure of fuzzy cognitive model. It reduces the computational complexity of decision-making; has no accumulation of learning error of artificial neural networks as a result of processing the information coming to the input of artificial neural networks. The example of assessing the state of the electronic environment showed an increase in the efficiency of assessment at the level of 15–25 % on the efficiency of information processin