Cross Entropy-based Analysis of Spacecraft Control Systems

Space missions increasingly require sophisticated guidance, navigation and control algorithms, the development of which is reliant on verification and validation (V&V) techniques to ensure mission safety and success. A crucial element of V&V is the assessment of control system robust performance in the presence of uncertainty. In addition to estimating average performance under uncertainty, it is critical to determine the worst case performance. Industrial V&V approaches typically employ mu-analysis in the early control design stages, and Monte Carlo simulations on high-fidelity full engineering simulators at advanced stages of the design cycle. While highly capable, such techniques present a critical gap between pessimistic worst case estimates found using analytical methods, and the optimistic outlook often presented by Monte Carlo runs. Conservative worst case estimates are problematic because they can demand a controller redesign procedure, which is not justified if the poor performance is unlikely to occur. Gaining insight into the probability associated with the worst case performance is valuable in bridging this gap. It should be noted that due to the complexity of industrial-scale systems, V&V techniques are required to be capable of efficiently analysing non-linear models in the presence of significant uncertainty. As well, they must be computationally tractable. It is desirable that such techniques demand little engineering effort before each analysis, to be applied widely in industrial systems. Motivated by these factors, this thesis proposes and develops an efficient algorithm, based on the cross entropy simulation method. The proposed algorithm efficiently estimates the probabilities associated with various performance levels, from nominal performance up to degraded performance values, resulting in a curve of probabilities associated with various performance values. Such a curve is termed the probability profile of performance (PPoP), and is introduced as a tool that offers insight into a control system's performance, principally the probability associated with the worst case performance. The cross entropy-based robust performance analysis is implemented here on various industrial systems in European Space Agency-funded research projects. The implementation on autonomous rendezvous and docking models for the Mars Sample Return mission constitutes the core of the thesis. The proposed technique is implemented on high-fidelity models of the Vega launcher, as well as on a generic long coasting launcher upper stage. In summary, this thesis (a) develops an algorithm based on the cross entropy simulation method to estimate the probability associated with the worst case, (b) proposes the cross entropy-based PPoP tool to gain insight into system performance, (c) presents results of the robust performance analysis of three space industry systems using the proposed technique in conjunction with existing methods, and (d) proposes an integrated template for conducting robust performance analysis of linearised aerospace systems

Fault diagnosis for uncertain networked systems

Fault diagnosis has been at the forefront of technological developments for several decades. Recent advances in many engineering fields have led to the networked interconnection of various systems. The increased complexity of modern systems leads to a larger number of sources of uncertainty which must be taken into consideration and addressed properly in the design of monitoring and fault diagnosis architectures. This chapter reviews a model-based distributed fault diagnosis approach for uncertain nonlinear large-scale networked systems to specifically address: (a) the presence of measurement noise by devising a filtering scheme for dampening the effect of noise; (b) the modeling of uncertainty by developing an adaptive learning scheme; (c) the uncertainty issues emerging when considering networked systems such as the presence of delays and packet dropouts in the communication networks. The proposed architecture considers in an integrated way the various components of complex distributed systems such as the physical environment, the sensor level, the fault diagnosers, and the communication networks. Finally, some actions taken after the detection of a fault, such as the identification of the fault location and its magnitude or the learning of the fault function, are illustrated

Robust model predictive control for linear systems subject to norm-bounded model Uncertainties and Disturbances: An Implementation to industrial directional drilling system

Model Predictive Control (MPC) refers to a class of receding horizon algorithms in which the current control action is computed by solving online, at each sampling instant, a constrained optimization problem. MPC has been widely implemented within the industry, due to its ability to deal with multivariable processes and to explicitly consider any physical constraints within the optimal control problem in a straightforward manner. However, the presence of uncertainty, whether in the form of additive disturbances, state estimation error or plant-model mismatch, and the robust constraints satisfaction and stability, remain an active area of research. The family of predictive control algorithms, which explicitly take account of process uncertainties/disturbances whilst guaranteeing robust constraint satisfaction and performance is referred to as Robust MPC (RMPC) schemes. In this thesis, RMPC algorithms based on Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) optimization are investigated, with the overall aim of improving robustness and control performance, while maintaining conservativeness and computation burden at low levels. Typically, the constrained RMPC problem with state-feedback parameterizations is nonlinear (and nonconvex) with a prohibitively high computational burden for online implementation. To remedy this issue, a novel approach is proposed to linearize the state-feedback RMPC problem, with minimal conservatism, through the use of semidefinite relaxation techniques and the Elimination Lemma. The proposed algorithm computes the state-feedback gain and perturbation online by solving an LMI optimization that, in comparison to other schemes in the literature is shown to have a substantially reduced computational burden without adversely affecting the tracking performance of the controller. In the case that only (noisy) output measurements are available, an output-feedback RMPC algorithm is also derived for norm-bounded uncertain systems. The novelty lies in the fact that, instead of using an offline estimation scheme or a fixed linear observer, the past input/output data is used within a Robust Moving Horizon Estimation (RMHE) scheme to compute (tight) bounds on the current state. These current state bounds are then used within the RMPC control algorithm. To reduce conservatism, the output-feedback control gain and control perturbation are both explicitly considered as decision variables in the online LMI optimization. Finally, the aforementioned robust control strategies are applied in an industrial directional drilling configuration and their performance is illustrated by simulations. A rotary steerable system (RSS) is a drilling technology that has been extensively studied over the last 20 years in hydrocarbon exploration and is used to drill complex curved borehole trajectories. RSSs are commonly treated as dynamic robotic actuator systems, driven by a reference signal and typically controlled by using a feedback loop control law. However, due to spatial delays, parametric uncertainties, and the presence of disturbances in such an unpredictable working environment, designing such control laws is not a straightforward process. Furthermore, due to their inherent delayed feedback, described by delay differential equations (DDE), directional drilling systems have the potential to become unstable given the requisite conditions. To address this problem, a simplified model described by ordinary differential equations (ODE) is first proposed, and then taking into account disturbances and system uncertainties that arise from design approximations, the proposed RMPC algorithm is used to automate the directional drilling system.Open Acces

Robust control design with real parameter uncertainty using absolute stability theory

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate an extension of mu theory for robust control design by considering systems with linear and nonlinear real parameter uncertainties. In the process, explicit connections are made between mixed mu and absolute stability theory. In particular, it is shown that the upper bounds for mixed mu are a generalization of results from absolute stability theory. Both state space and frequency domain criteria are developed for several nonlinearities and stability multipliers using the wealth of literature on absolute stability theory and the concepts of supply rates and storage functions. The state space conditions are expressed in terms of Riccati equations and parameter-dependent Lyapunov functions. For controller synthesis, these stability conditions are used to form an overbound of the H2 performance objective. A geometric interpretation of the equivalent frequency domain criteria in terms of off-axis circles clarifies the important role of the multiplier and shows that both the magnitude and phase of the uncertainty are considered. A numerical algorithm is developed to design robust controllers that minimize the bound on an H2 cost functional and satisfy an analysis test based on the Popov stability multiplier. The controller and multiplier coefficients are optimized simultaneously, which avoids the iteration and curve-fitting procedures required by the D-K procedure of mu synthesis. Several benchmark problems and experiments on the Middeck Active Control Experiment at M.I.T. demonstrate that these controllers achieve good robust performance and guaranteed stability bounds

High-Speed Obstacle Avoidance at the Dynamic Limits for Autonomous Ground Vehicles

Enabling autonomy of passenger-size and larger vehicles is becoming increasingly important in both military and commercial applications. For large autonomous ground vehicles (AGVs), the vehicle dynamics are critical to consider to ensure vehicle safety during obstacle avoidance maneuvers especially at high speeds. This research is concerned with large-size high-speed AGVs with high center of gravity that operate in unstructured environments. The term `unstructured' in this context denotes that there are no lanes or traffic rules to follow. No map of the environment is available a priori. The environment is perceived through a planar light detection and ranging sensor. The mission of the AGV is to move from its initial position to a given target position safely and as fast as possible. In this dissertation, a model predictive control (MPC)-based obstacle avoidance algorithm is developed to achieve the objectives through an iterative simultaneous optimization of the path and the corresponding control commands. MPC is chosen because it offers a rigorous and systematic approach for taking vehicle dynamics and safety constraints into account. Firstly, this thesis investigates the level of model fidelity needed for an MPC-based obstacle avoidance algorithm to be able to safely and quickly avoid obstacles even when the vehicle is close to its dynamic limits. Five different representations of vehicle dynamics models are considered. It is concluded that the two Degrees-of-Freedom (DoF) representation that accounts for tire nonlinearities and longitudinal load transfer is necessary for the MPC-based obstacle avoidance algorithm to operate the vehicle at its limits within an environment that includes large obstacles. Secondly, existing MPC formulations for passenger vehicles in structured environments do not readily apply to this context. Thus, a novel nonlinear MPC formulation is developed. First, a new cost function formulation is used that aims to find the shortest path to the target position. Second, a region partitioning approach is used in conjunction with a multi-phase optimal control formulation to accommodate the complicated forms of obstacle-free regions from an unstructured environment. Third, the no-wheel-lift-off condition is established offline using a fourteen DoF vehicle dynamics model and is included in the MPC formulation. The formulation can simultaneous optimize both steering angle and reference longitudinal speed commands. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is capable of safely exploiting the dynamic limits of the vehicle while navigating the vehicle through sensed obstacles of different size and number. Thirdly, in the algorithm, a model of the vehicle is used explicitly to predict and optimize future actions, but in practice, the model parameter values are not exactly known. It is demonstrated that using nominal parameter values in the algorithm leads to safety issues in about one fourth of the evaluated scenarios with the considered parametric uncertainty distributions. To improve the robustness of the algorithm, a novel double-worst-case formulation is developed. Results from simulations with stratified random scenarios and worst-case scenarios show that the double-worst-case formulation considering both the most likely and less likely worst-case scenarios renders the algorithm robust to all uncertainty realizations tested. The trade-off between the robustness and the task completion performance of the algorithm is also quantified. Finally, in addition to simulation-based validation, preliminary experimental validation is also performed. These results demonstrate that the developed algorithm is promising in terms of its capability of avoiding obstacles. Limitations and potential improvements of the algorithm are discussed.PHDMechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135770/1/ljch_1.pd

Fast Data in the Era of Big Data: Twitter's Real-Time Related Query Suggestion Architecture

We present the architecture behind Twitter's real-time related query suggestion and spelling correction service. Although these tasks have received much attention in the web search literature, the Twitter context introduces a real-time "twist": after significant breaking news events, we aim to provide relevant results within minutes. This paper provides a case study illustrating the challenges of real-time data processing in the era of "big data". We tell the story of how our system was built twice: our first implementation was built on a typical Hadoop-based analytics stack, but was later replaced because it did not meet the latency requirements necessary to generate meaningful real-time results. The second implementation, which is the system deployed in production, is a custom in-memory processing engine specifically designed for the task. This experience taught us that the current typical usage of Hadoop as a "big data" platform, while great for experimentation, is not well suited to low-latency processing, and points the way to future work on data analytics platforms that can handle "big" as well as "fast" data