Asymptotics of the discrete log-concave maximum likelihood estimator and related applications

The assumption of log-concavity is a flexible and appealing nonparametric shape constraint in distribution modelling. In this work, we study the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a probability mass function (pmf). We show that the MLE is strongly consistent and derive its pointwise asymptotic theory under both the well- and misspecified setting. Our asymptotic results are used to calculate confidence intervals for the true log-concave pmf. Both the MLE and the associated confidence intervals may be easily computed using the R package logcondiscr. We illustrate our theoretical results using recent data from the H1N1 pandemic in Ontario, Canada.Comment: 21 pages, 7 Figure

On a flexible construction of a negative binomial model

This work presents a construction of stationary Markov models with negative-binomial marginal distributions. A simple closed form expression for the corresponding transition probabilities is given, linking the proposal to well-known classes of birth and death processes and thus revealing interesting characterizations. The advantage of having such closed form expressions is tested on simulated and real data.Comment: Forthcoming in "Statistics & Probability Letters

Approximation of ruin probabilities via Erlangized scale mixtures

In this paper, we extend an existing scheme for numerically calculating the probability of ruin of a classical Cram\'er--Lundberg reserve process having absolutely continuous but otherwise general claim size distributions. We employ a dense class of distributions that we denominate Erlangized scale mixtures (ESM) and correspond to nonnegative and absolutely continuous distributions which can be written as a Mellin--Stieltjes convolution $\Pi\star G$ of a nonnegative distribution $\Pi$ with an Erlang distribution $G$. A distinctive feature of such a class is that it contains heavy-tailed distributions. We suggest a simple methodology for constructing a sequence of distributions having the form $\Pi\star G$ to approximate the integrated tail distribution of the claim sizes. Then we adapt a recent result which delivers an explicit expression for the probability of ruin in the case that the claim size distribution is modelled as an Erlangized scale mixture. We provide simplified expressions for the approximation of the probability of ruin and construct explicit bounds for the error of approximation. We complement our results with a classical example where the claim sizes are heavy-tailed

The MM Alternative to EM

The EM algorithm is a special case of a more general algorithm called the MM algorithm. Specific MM algorithms often have nothing to do with missing data. The first M step of an MM algorithm creates a surrogate function that is optimized in the second M step. In minimization, MM stands for majorize--minimize; in maximization, it stands for minorize--maximize. This two-step process always drives the objective function in the right direction. Construction of MM algorithms relies on recognizing and manipulating inequalities rather than calculating conditional expectations. This survey walks the reader through the construction of several specific MM algorithms. The potential of the MM algorithm in solving high-dimensional optimization and estimation problems is its most attractive feature. Our applications to random graph models, discriminant analysis and image restoration showcase this ability.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-STS264 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Algorithms for operations on probability distributions in a computer algebra system

In mathematics and statistics, the desire to eliminate mathematical tedium and facilitate exploration has lead to computer algebra systems. These computer algebra systems allow students and researchers to perform more of their work at a conceptual level. The design of generic algorithms for tedious computations allows modelers to push current modeling boundaries outward more quickly.;Probability theory, with its many theorems and symbolic manipulations of random variables is a discipline in which automation of certain processes is highly practical, functional, and efficient. There are many existing statistical software packages, such as SPSS, SAS, and S-Plus, that have numeric tools for statistical applications. There is a potential for a probability package analogous to these statistical packages for manipulation of random variables. The software package being developed as part of this dissertation, referred to as A Probability Programming Language (APPL) is a random variable manipulator and is proposed to fill a technology gap that exists in probability theory.;My research involves developing algorithms for the manipulation of discrete random variables. By defining data structures for random variables and writing algorithms for implementing common operations, more interesting and mathematically intractable probability problems can be solved, including those not attempted in undergraduate statistics courses because they were deemed too mechanically arduous. Algorithms for calculating the probability density function of order statistics, transformations, convolutions, products, and minimums/maximums of independent discrete random variables are included in this dissertation

Extended Object Tracking: Introduction, Overview and Applications

This article provides an elaborate overview of current research in extended object tracking. We provide a clear definition of the extended object tracking problem and discuss its delimitation to other types of object tracking. Next, different aspects of extended object modelling are extensively discussed. Subsequently, we give a tutorial introduction to two basic and well used extended object tracking approaches - the random matrix approach and the Kalman filter-based approach for star-convex shapes. The next part treats the tracking of multiple extended objects and elaborates how the large number of feasible association hypotheses can be tackled using both Random Finite Set (RFS) and Non-RFS multi-object trackers. The article concludes with a summary of current applications, where four example applications involving camera, X-band radar, light detection and ranging (lidar), red-green-blue-depth (RGB-D) sensors are highlighted.Comment: 30 pages, 19 figure

Capacity Upper Bounds for Deletion-Type Channels

We develop a systematic approach, based on convex programming and real analysis, for obtaining upper bounds on the capacity of the binary deletion channel and, more generally, channels with i.i.d. insertions and deletions. Other than the classical deletion channel, we give a special attention to the Poisson-repeat channel introduced by Mitzenmacher and Drinea (IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2006). Our framework can be applied to obtain capacity upper bounds for any repetition distribution (the deletion and Poisson-repeat channels corresponding to the special cases of Bernoulli and Poisson distributions). Our techniques essentially reduce the task of proving capacity upper bounds to maximizing a univariate, real-valued, and often concave function over a bounded interval. We show the following: 1. The capacity of the binary deletion channel with deletion probability $d$ is at most $(1-d)\log\varphi$ for $d\geq 1/2$, and, assuming the capacity function is convex, is at most $1-d\log(4/\varphi)$ for $d<1/2$, where $\varphi=(1+\sqrt{5})/2$ is the golden ratio. This is the first nontrivial capacity upper bound for any value of $d$ outside the limiting case $d\to 0$ that is fully explicit and proved without computer assistance. 2. We derive the first set of capacity upper bounds for the Poisson-repeat channel. 3. We derive several novel upper bounds on the capacity of the deletion channel. All upper bounds are maximums of efficiently computable, and concave, univariate real functions over a bounded domain. In turn, we upper bound these functions in terms of explicit elementary and standard special functions, whose maximums can be found even more efficiently (and sometimes, analytically, for example for $d=1/2$). Along the way, we develop several new techniques of potentially independent interest in information theory, probability, and mathematical analysis.Comment: Minor edits, In Proceedings of 50th Annual ACM SIGACT Symposium on the Theory of Computing (STOC), 201