An Online Decision-Theoretic Pipeline for Responder Dispatch

The problem of dispatching emergency responders to service traffic accidents, fire, distress calls and crimes plagues urban areas across the globe. While such problems have been extensively looked at, most approaches are offline. Such methodologies fail to capture the dynamically changing environments under which critical emergency response occurs, and therefore, fail to be implemented in practice. Any holistic approach towards creating a pipeline for effective emergency response must also look at other challenges that it subsumes - predicting when and where incidents happen and understanding the changing environmental dynamics. We describe a system that collectively deals with all these problems in an online manner, meaning that the models get updated with streaming data sources. We highlight why such an approach is crucial to the effectiveness of emergency response, and present an algorithmic framework that can compute promising actions for a given decision-theoretic model for responder dispatch. We argue that carefully crafted heuristic measures can balance the trade-off between computational time and the quality of solutions achieved and highlight why such an approach is more scalable and tractable than traditional approaches. We also present an online mechanism for incident prediction, as well as an approach based on recurrent neural networks for learning and predicting environmental features that affect responder dispatch. We compare our methodology with prior state-of-the-art and existing dispatch strategies in the field, which show that our approach results in a reduction in response time with a drastic reduction in computational time.Comment: Appeared in ICCPS 201

Multiscale Markov Decision Problems: Compression, Solution, and Transfer Learning

Many problems in sequential decision making and stochastic control often have natural multiscale structure: sub-tasks are assembled together to accomplish complex goals. Systematically inferring and leveraging hierarchical structure, particularly beyond a single level of abstraction, has remained a longstanding challenge. We describe a fast multiscale procedure for repeatedly compressing, or homogenizing, Markov decision processes (MDPs), wherein a hierarchy of sub-problems at different scales is automatically determined. Coarsened MDPs are themselves independent, deterministic MDPs, and may be solved using existing algorithms. The multiscale representation delivered by this procedure decouples sub-tasks from each other and can lead to substantial improvements in convergence rates both locally within sub-problems and globally across sub-problems, yielding significant computational savings. A second fundamental aspect of this work is that these multiscale decompositions yield new transfer opportunities across different problems, where solutions of sub-tasks at different levels of the hierarchy may be amenable to transfer to new problems. Localized transfer of policies and potential operators at arbitrary scales is emphasized. Finally, we demonstrate compression and transfer in a collection of illustrative domains, including examples involving discrete and continuous statespaces.Comment: 86 pages, 15 figure

On using discrete random models within decision support systems

In this paper we review how models for discrete random systems may be used to support practical decision making. It will be demonstrated how organizational requirements determine to a large extent the type of model to be applied as well as the way in which the model should be applied. This demonstration is given via several practical examples of Markov chain models, cohort models, and Markov decision models. The examples are drawn from various areas ranging from the purely technical to social applications. It is demonstrated that the models that are needed for supporting the decision making process may vary from purely descriptive models to optimization models. Similarly, the obvious way of application of a model may vary from straightforward numerical analysis to interactive modelling procedures based upon managerial evaluation. It will also be demonstrated how the numerical methods to be used depend on the structure of the model as well as on applicational aspects. The numerical aspect is strongly related to the aforementioned aspects, since the model choiche heavily determines the computational possibilities

Accelerated algorithms for temporal difference learning methods

L'idée centrale de cette thèse est de comprendre la notion d'accélération dans les algorithmes d'approximation stochastique. Plus précisément, nous tentons de répondre à la question suivante : Comment l'accélération apparaît-elle naturellement dans les algorithmes d'approximation stochastique ? Nous adoptons une approche de systèmes dynamiques et proposons de nouvelles méthodes accélérées pour l'apprentissage par différence temporelle (TD) avec approximation de fonction linéaire : Polyak TD(0) et Nesterov TD(0). Contrairement aux travaux antérieurs, nos méthodes ne reposent pas sur une conception des méthodes de TD comme des méthodes de descente de gradient. Nous étudions l'interaction entre l'accélération, la stabilité et la convergence des méthodes accélérées proposées en temps continu. Pour établir la convergence du système dynamique sous-jacent, nous analysons les modèles en temps continu des méthodes d'approximation stochastique accélérées proposées en dérivant la loi de conservation dans un système de coordonnées dilaté. Nous montrons que le système dynamique sous-jacent des algorithmes proposés converge à un rythme accéléré. Ce cadre nous fournit également des recommandations pour le choix des paramètres d'amortissement afin d'obtenir ce comportement convergent. Enfin, nous discrétisons ces ODE convergentes en utilisant deux schémas de discrétisation différents, Euler explicite et Euler symplectique, et nous analysons leurs performances sur de petites tâches de prédiction linéaire.The central idea of this thesis is to understand the notion of acceleration in stochastic approximation algorithms. Specifically, we attempt to answer the question: How does acceleration naturally show up in SA algorithms? We adopt a dynamical systems approach and propose new accelerated methods for temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation: Polyak TD(0) and Nesterov TD(0). In contrast to earlier works, our methods do not rely on viewing TD methods as gradient descent methods. We study the interplay between acceleration, stability, and convergence of the proposed accelerated methods in continuous time. To establish the convergence of the underlying dynamical system, we analyze continuous-time models of the proposed accelerated stochastic approximation methods by deriving the conservation law in a dilated coordinate system. We show that the underlying dynamical system of our proposed algorithms converges at an accelerated rate. This framework also provides us recommendations for the choice of the damping parameters to obtain this convergent behavior. Finally, we discretize these convergent ODEs using two different discretization schemes, explicit Euler, and symplectic Euler, and analyze their performance on small, linear prediction tasks

Sample-based Search Methods for Bayes-Adaptive Planning

A fundamental issue for control is acting in the face of uncertainty about the environment. Amongst other things, this induces a trade-off between exploration and exploitation. A model-based Bayesian agent optimizes its return by maintaining a posterior distribution over possible environments, and considering all possible future paths. This optimization is equivalent to solving a Markov Decision Process (MDP) whose hyperstate comprises the agent's beliefs about the environment, as well as its current state in that environment. This corresponding process is called a Bayes-Adaptive MDP (BAMDP). Even for MDPs with only a few states, it is generally intractable to solve the corresponding BAMDP exactly. Various heuristics have been devised, but those that are computationally tractable often perform indifferently, whereas those that perform well are typically so expensive as to be applicable only in small domains with limited structure. Here, we develop new tractable methods for planning in BAMDPs based on recent advances in the solution to large MDPs and general partially observable MDPs. Our algorithms are sample-based, plan online in a way that is focused on the current belief, and, critically, avoid expensive belief updates during simulations. In discrete domains, we use Monte-Carlo tree search to search forward in an aggressive manner. The derived algorithm can scale to large MDPs and provably converges to the Bayes-optimal solution asymptotically. We then consider a more general class of simulation-based methods in which approximation methods can be employed to allow value function estimates to generalize between hyperstates during search. This allows us to tackle continuous domains. We validate our approach empirically in standard domains by comparison with existing approximations. Finally, we explore Bayes-adaptive planning in environments that are modelled by rich, non-parametric probabilistic models. We demonstrate that a fully Bayesian agent can be advantageous in the exploration of complex and even infinite, structured domains

Global Optimality Guarantees For Policy Gradient Methods

Policy gradients methods apply to complex, poorly understood, control problems by performing stochastic gradient descent over a parameterized class of polices. Unfortunately, even for simple control problems solvable by standard dynamic programming techniques, policy gradient algorithms face non-convex optimization problems and are widely understood to converge only to a stationary point. This work identifies structural properties -- shared by several classic control problems -- that ensure the policy gradient objective function has no suboptimal stationary points despite being non-convex. When these conditions are strengthened, this objective satisfies a Polyak-lojasiewicz (gradient dominance) condition that yields convergence rates. We also provide bounds on the optimality gap of any stationary point when some of these conditions are relaxed