From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Toward a model of computational attention based on expressive behavior: applications to cultural heritage scenarios

Our project goals consisted in the development of attention-based analysis of human expressive behavior and the implementation of real-time algorithm in EyesWeb XMI in order to improve naturalness of human-computer interaction and context-based monitoring of human behavior. To this aim, perceptual-model that mimic human attentional processes was developed for expressivity analysis and modeled by entropy. Museum scenarios were selected as an ecological test-bed to elaborate three experiments that focus on visitor profiling and visitors flow regulation

Architecting system of systems: artificial life analysis of financial market behavior

This research study focuses on developing a framework that can be utilized by system architects to understand the emergent behavior of system architectures. The objective is to design a framework that is modular and flexible in providing different ways of modeling sub-systems of System of Systems. At the same time, the framework should capture the adaptive behavior of the system since evolution is one of the key characteristics of System of Systems. Another objective is to design the framework so that humans can be incorporated into the analysis. The framework should help system architects understand the behavior as well as promoters or inhibitors of change in human systems. Computational intelligence tools have been successfully used in analysis of Complex Adaptive Systems. Since a System of Systems is a collection of Complex Adaptive Systems, a framework utilizing combination of these tools can be developed. Financial markets are selected to demonstrate the various architectures developed from the analysis framework --Introduction, page 3

Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. We evaluate the contribution of Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman, often in association with his late co-author Amos Tversky, to the development of our understanding of financial decision-making and the evolution of behavioural finance as a school of thought within Finance. Whilst a general evaluation of the work of Kahneman would be a massive task, we constrain ourselves to a more narrow discussion of his vision of financial-decision making compared to a possible alternative advanced by Gerd Gigerenzer along with numerous co-authors. Both Kahneman and Gigerenzer agree on the centrality of heuristics in decision making. However, for Kahneman heuristics often appear as a fall back when the standard von-Neumann-Morgenstern axioms of rational decision-making do not describe investors' choices. In contrast, for Gigerenzer heuristics are simply a more effective way of evaluating choices in the rich and changing decision making environment investors must face. Gigerenzer challenges Kahneman to move beyond substantiating the presence of heuristics towards a more tangible, testable, description of their use and disposal within the ever changing decision-making environment financial agents inhabit. Here we see the emphasis placed by Gigerenzer on how context and cognition interact to form new schemata for fast and frugal reasoning as offering a productive vein of new research. We illustrate how the interaction between cognition and context already characterises much empirical research and it appears the fast and frugal reasoning perspective of Gigerenzer can provide a framework to enhance our understanding of how financial decisions are made

Natural Language Processing Applications in Business

Increasing dependency of humans on computer-assisted systems has led to researchers focusing on more effective communication technologies that can mimic human interactions as well as understand natural languages and human emotions. The problem of information overload in every sector, including business, healthcare, education etc., has led to an increase in unstructured data, which is considered not to be useful. Natural language processing (NLP) in this context is one of the effective technologies that can be integrated with advanced technologies, such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, and deep learning, to improve the process of understanding and processing the natural language. This can enable human-computer interaction in a more effective way as well as allow for the analysis and formatting of large volumes of unusable and unstructured data/text in various industries. This will deliver meaningful outcomes that can enhance decision-making and thus improve operational efficiency. Focusing on this aspect, this chapter explains the concept of NLP, its history and development, while also reviewing its application in various industrial sectors

Detection of Stock Price Manipulation Using Kernel Based Principal Component Analysis and Multivariate Density Estimation

Stock price manipulation uses illegitimate means to artificially influence market prices of several stocks. It causes massive losses and undermines investors’ confidence and the integrity of the stock market. Several existing research works focused on detecting a specific manipulation scheme using supervised learning but lacks the adaptive capability to capture different manipulative strategies. This begets the assumption of model parameter values specific to the underlying manipulation scheme. In addition, supervised learning requires the use of labelled data which is difficult to acquire due to confidentiality and the proprietary nature of trading data. The proposed research establishes a detection model based on unsupervised learning using Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) and applied increased variance of selected latent features in higher dimensions. A proposed Multidimensional Kernel Density Estimation (MKDE) clustering is then applied upon the selected components to identify abnormal patterns of manipulation in data. This research has an advantage over the existing methods in overcoming the ambiguity of assuming values of several parameters, reducing the high dimensions obtained from conventional KPCA and thereby reducing computational complexity. The robustness of the detection model has also been evaluated when two or more manipulative activities occur within a short duration of each other and by varying the window length of the dataset fed to the model. The results show a comprehensive assessment of the model on multiple datasets and a significant performance enhancement in terms of the F-measure values with a significant reduction in false alarm rate (FAR) has been achieved

Computational intelligent hybrid model for detecting disruptive trading activity

The term “disruptive trading behaviour” was first proposed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is now widely used by US and EU regulation (MiFID II) to describe activities that create a misleading appearance of market liquidity or depth or an artificial price movement upward or downward according to their own purposes. Such activities, identified as a new form of financial fraud in EU regulations, damage the proper functioning and integrity of capital markets and are hence extremely harmful. While existing studies have explored this issue, they have, in most cases, either focused on empirical analysis of such cases or proposed detection models based on certain assumptions of the market. Effective methods that can analyse and detect such disruptive activities based on direct studies of trading behaviours have not been studied to date. There exists, accordingly, a knowledge gap in the literature. This paper seeks to address that gap and provides a hybrid model composed of two data-mining-based detection modules that effectively identify disruptive trading behaviours. The hybrid model is designed to work in an on-line scheme. The limit order stream is transformed, calculated and extracted as a feature stream. One detection module, “Single Order Detection,” detects disruptive behaviours by identifying abnormal patterns of every single trading order. Another module, “Order Sequence Detection,” approaches the problem by examining the contextual relationships of a sequence of trading orders using an extended hidden Markov model, which identifies whether sequential changes from the extracted features are manipulative activities (or not). Both models were evaluated using huge volumes of real tick data from the NASDAQ, which demonstrated that both are able to identify a range of disruptive trading behaviours and, furthermore, that they outperform the selected traditional benchmark models. Thus, this hybrid model is shown to make a substantial contribution to the literature on financial market surveillance and to offer a practical and effective approach for the identification of disruptive trading behaviour

Adaptive Decision Support for Academic Course Scheduling Using Intelligent Software Agents

Academic course scheduling is a complex operation that requires the interaction between different users including instructors and course schedulers to satisfy conflicting constraints in an optimal manner. Traditionally, this problem has been addressed as a constraint satisfaction problem where the constraints are stationary over time. In this paper, we address academic course scheduling as a dynamic decision support problem using an agent-enabled adaptive decision support system. In this paper, we describe the Intelligent Agent Enabled Decision Support (IAEDS) system, which employs software agents to assist humans in making strategic decisions under dynamic and uncertain conditions. The IAEDS system has a layered architecture including different components such as a learning engine that uses historic data to improve decision-making and an intelligent applet base that provides graphical interface templates to users for frequently requested decision-making tasks. We illustrate an application of our IAEDS system where agents are used to make complex scheduling decisions in a dynamically changing environment

Structural changes in economics during the last fifty years

This essay portrays the major currents in recent economic thinking against the orthodoxy and dogmatism of neoclassical economics. It places behavioral economics, experimental economics, evolutionary economics, ecological economics, new institutional economics, agent-based computational economics and post-autistic economics vis-à-vis the classical and the neoclassical economics. It concludes that we may expect a synthesis of all these strands of economic thinking in the near future that will replace neoclassical economics from the citadel of mainstream. Teaching of these strands of new economics has already begun in many universities, although in an un-integrated manner. However, until the neoclassical microeconomics and macroeconomics are replaced by their alternatives and necessary as well as convincing tools of economic analysis are developed, neoclassicism would not give way to modern economics.Behavioral; experimental; evolutionary; ecological; new institutional; agent-based computational; post-autistic; classical; neoclassical, economics; bounded rationality; heterodox; individualism; pluralism