Unpacking estimates of task duration: The role of typicality and temporality

Research in task duration judgment has shown that unpacking a multifaceted task into components prior to estimating its duration increases estimates. In three studies, we find that unpacking a complex task can increase, decrease, or leave unaffected task duration estimates depending on the typicality of the unpacked components and their temporal position in the task sequence. Unpacking atypical long components increases task duration estimates, while unpacking atypical short components decreases estimates (Study 1). Unpacking atypical early components increases task duration estimates, while unpacking atypical late components decreases estimates (Study 2). Unpacking typical early or late components leaves estimates unaffected (Study 3). We explain these results based on the idea that task duration estimation involves a mental simulation process, and by drawing on theories of unpacking in probability judgment that emphasize the role of the typicality of the unpacked components. These findings hint at a deep conceptual link between probability judgment and task duration estimation but also show differences, such as the influence that temporality exerts on estimated duration. © 2013 Elsevier Inc

Reducing bias in auditory duration reproduction by integrating the reproduced signal

Duration estimation is known to be far from veridical and to differ for sensory estimates and motor reproduction. To investigate how these differential estimates are integrated for estimating or reproducing a duration and to examine sensorimotor biases in duration comparison and reproduction tasks, we compared estimation biases and variances among three different duration estimation tasks: perceptual comparison, motor reproduction, and auditory reproduction (i.e. a combined perceptual-motor task). We found consistent overestimation in both motor and perceptual-motor auditory reproduction tasks, and the least overestimation in the comparison task. More interestingly, compared to pure motor reproduction, the overestimation bias was reduced in the auditory reproduction task, due to the additional reproduced auditory signal. We further manipulated the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the feedback/comparison tones to examine the changes in estimation biases and variances. Considering perceptual and motor biases as two independent components, we applied the reliability-based model, which successfully predicted the biases in auditory reproduction. Our findings thus provide behavioral evidence of how the brain combines motor and perceptual information together to reduce duration estimation biases and improve estimation reliability

The Effects of Prior Experience on Estimating the Duration of Simple Tasks.

Previous research provides conflicting evidence regarding the effects of prior experience on estimates of task duration. Research supporting the planning fallacy suggests that people tend to ignore information about their previous task performance, whereas other work indicates that time estimates are influenced by the duration of a just-completed similar task. The present research examined whether information about previous tasks was linked to temporal misestimation on subsequent tasks. Experiment 1 revealed that the accuracy of completion time predictions on an anagram task was influenced by the degree of misestimation in the perceived duration of the preceding task. In Experiment 2, prospective estimates were found to exceed actual time, whereas the direction in which predictions were misestimated (under or overestimation) differed according to the duration of the just-completed task. These findings suggest that taskrelated information is not only used when predicting task duration but also affects temporal misestimation. This research is discussed in the context of bias in predictions of task duration and the allocation of attentional resources in dual task situations in the prospective time estimation paradigm

Secondary task for full flight simulation incorporating tasks that commonly cause pilot error: Time estimation

The task of time estimation, an activity occasionally performed by pilots during actual flight, was investigated with the objective of providing human factors investigators with an unobtrusive and minimally loading additional task that is sensitive to differences in flying conditions and flight instrumentation associated with the main task of piloting an aircraft simulator. Previous research indicated that the duration and consistency of time estimates is associated with the cognitive, perceptual, and motor loads imposed by concurrent simple tasks. The relationships between the length and variability of time estimates and concurrent task variables under a more complex situation involving simulated flight were clarified. The wrap-around effect with respect to baseline duration, a consequence of mode switching at intermediate levels of concurrent task distraction, should contribute substantially to estimate variability and have a complex effect on the shape of the resulting distribution of estimates

On the Relationship Between Time Management and Time Estimation

The study explores the relationship between people's self-report of the use of time management practices and estimates of task duration. The hypothesis is that those who are good time managers will be good at estimating how long a future task will take (expected), how long a previously executed task has taken (retrospective) and how long a task is taking while in process (prospective). In the expected setting results indicate that those who perceive themselves as good time managers are most accurate at estimating the duration of a future task, of those who do not perceive themselves as good time managers some grossly overestimate and many underestimate to quite a considerable extent. The latter finding thus provides support for the 'planning fallacy' (Kahneman & Tversky,1979). In the prospective setting results indicate those who perceive themselves as good time managers tend to underestimate time passing. It is suggested that this is a motivational strategy designed to enhance a sense of control over time. Findings are discussed in relation to existing theories of time estimation

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ACCURACY OF TASK COMPLETION TIME ESTIMATES

Whilst considerable research has found that people tend to underestimate their task completion times (e.g., Buehler et al., 1994), factors that might influence the accuracy of temporal predictions have received little empirical treatment. The research presented in this thesis identified two distinct factors that mediated time estimation accuracy and bias. One factor was task duration, whereas the other factor was the person’s prior experience of the task. There was evidence that having prior experience of performing all or a substantial part of the same task enabled participants to more accurately estimate its duration. Additionally, predictions were more accurate when participants viewed tasks before making time estimates. Contrary to the theory of the planning fallacy (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), these findings suggest that people do take account of their previous task performance, and use such distributional information to good effect. However, there was evidence of time prediction bias when unrelated tasks were completed beforehand, suggesting that erroneous information about previous task performance was used when making a subsequent estimate. The directional nature of time estimation bias was also highlighted in the present research. In general, there was some evidence of temporal overestimation on tasks with a duration of up to four or five minutes, whereas participants tended to underestimate their completion times on tasks that took between eight and 16 minutes to complete. These findings indicate that task duration influences the direction in which time estimates are biased (i.e., under or overestimation), with the temporal underestimation indicative of the planning fallacy occurring on tasks of at least eight minutes' duration. The present research has potential implications for task duration estimation in everyday life, and outlines conditions under which prediction bias can be reduced. The present findings are discussed in relation to the theory of the planning fallacy and the potential role of cognitive judgemental heuristics in determining temporal misestimation

Determiners of accuracy when making an expected duration estimation: The role of ‘past’ event/task saliency

One of the important ‘skills’ which is associated with effective time management is the ability to accurately estimate the probable duration of a to-be-scheduled event or task. The present study explored the effect that presenting a highly salient, similar to-be-estimated task had on a subsequent task estimate. Participants in this experiment tended to allocate significantly less time to the completion of a task if they had previously estimated the expected duration of a similar, shorter task. Conversely, they tended to allocate significantly more time to the completion of a task if they had previously estimated the expected duration of a similar but longer task. The results are discussed in relation to future developments in scheduling/time management software

The Effects of Previous Misestimation of Task Duration on Estimating Future Task Duration

It is a common time management problem that people underestimate the duration of tasks, which has been termed the "planning fallacy." To overcome this, it has been suggested that people should be informed about how long they previously worked on the same task. This study, however, tests whether previous misestimation also affects the duration estimation of a novel task, even if the feedback is only self-generated. To test this, two groups of participants performed two unrelated, laboratory-based tasks in succession. Learning was manipulated by permitting only the experimental group to retrospectively estimate the duration of the first task before predicting the duration of the second task. Results showed that the experimental group underestimated the duration of the second task less than the control group, which indicates a general kind of learning from previous misestimation. The findings imply that people could be trained to carefully observe how much they misestimate task duration in order to stimulate learning. The findings are discussed in relation to the anchoring account of task duration misestimation and the memory-bias account of the planning fallacy. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York

Does dual task interference affect concurrent duration production?

Time perception has been cited as a good measure of workload because it seldom interferes with performance of tasks that do not require time estimation, is easy to implement, and is sensitive to task difficulty (Hart, 1975a; Zakay & Shub, 1998). It was hypothesized that duration productions could be used to measure workload caused by two word tasks that would interfere with one another as outlined by Wickens\u27 (1980) multiple resource theory. To test this hypothesis participants estimated a 15 second duration while performing a visual animal name detection task, along with an auditory animal name detection task, or a tone change task. The mean duration produced for the condition with two word tasks was not significantly different from the duration produced for the condition with a word task and a tone task. There was also interference between tasks that should not have produced interference. The results do not support the use of the concurrent duration production method to measure the workload caused by dual nontemporal task interference

Duration judgements in patients with schizophrenia

Background. The ability to encode time cues underlies many cognitive processes. In the light of schizophrenic patients' compromised cognitive abilities in a variety of domains, it is noteworthy that there are numerous reports of these patients displaying impaired timing abilities. However, the timing intervals that patients have been evaluated on in prior studies vary considerably in magnitude (e.g. 1 s, 1 min, 1 h etc.). Method. In order to obviate differences in abilities in chronometric counting and place minimal demands on cognitive processing, we chose tasks that involve making judgements about brief durations of time (<1 s). Results. On a temporal generalization task, patients were less accurate than controls at recognizing a standard duration. The performance of patients was also significantly different from controls on a temporal bisection task, in which participants categorized durations as short or long. Although time estimation may be closely intertwined with working memory, patients' working memory as measured by the digit span task did not correlate significantly with their performance on the duration judgement tasks. Moreover, lowered intelligence scores could not completely account for the findings. Conclusions. We take these results to suggest that patients with schizophrenia are less accurate at estimating brief time periods. These deficits may reflect dysfunction of biopsychological timing processes