Estimation of flexible fuzzy GARCH models for conditional density estimation

In this work we introduce a new flexible fuzzy GARCH model for conditional density estimation. The model combines two different types of uncertainty, namely fuzziness or linguistic vagueness, and probabilistic uncertainty. The probabilistic uncertainty is modeled through a GARCH model while the fuzziness or linguistic vagueness is present in the antecedent and combination of the rule base system. The fuzzy GARCH model under study allows for a linguistic interpretation of the gradual changes in the output density, providing a simple understanding of the process. Such a system can capture different properties of data, such as fat tails, skewness and multimodality in one single model. This type of models can be useful in many fields such as macroeconomic analysis, quantitative finance and risk management. The relation to existing similar models is discussed, while the properties, interpretation and estimation of the proposed model are provided. The model performance is illustrated in simulated time series data exhibiting complex behavior and a real data application of volatility forecasting for the S&P 500 daily returns series

Automatic programming methodologies for electronic hardware fault monitoring

This paper presents three variants of Genetic Programming (GP) approaches for intelligent online performance monitoring of electronic circuits and systems. Reliability modeling of electronic circuits can be best performed by the Stressor - susceptibility interaction model. A circuit or a system is considered to be failed once the stressor has exceeded the susceptibility limits. For on-line prediction, validated stressor vectors may be obtained by direct measurements or sensors, which after pre-processing and standardization are fed into the GP models. Empirical results are compared with artificial neural networks trained using backpropagation algorithm and classification and regression trees. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the experiment results with the actual failure model values. The developed model reveals that GP could play an important role for future fault monitoring systems.This research was supported by the International Joint Research Grant of the IITA (Institute of Information Technology Assessment) foreign professor invitation program of the MIC (Ministry of Information and Communication), Korea

Binary Biometrics: An Analytic Framework to Estimate the Performance Curves Under Gaussian Assumption

In recent years, the protection of biometric data has gained increased interest from the scientific community. Methods such as the fuzzy commitment scheme, helper-data system, fuzzy extractors, fuzzy vault, and cancelable biometrics have been proposed for protecting biometric data. Most of these methods use cryptographic primitives or error-correcting codes (ECCs) and use a binary representation of the real-valued biometric data. Hence, the difference between two biometric samples is given by the Hamming distance (HD) or bit errors between the binary vectors obtained from the enrollment and verification phases, respectively. If the HD is smaller (larger) than the decision threshold, then the subject is accepted (rejected) as genuine. Because of the use of ECCs, this decision threshold is limited to the maximum error-correcting capacity of the code, consequently limiting the false rejection rate (FRR) and false acceptance rate tradeoff. A method to improve the FRR consists of using multiple biometric samples in either the enrollment or verification phase. The noise is suppressed, hence reducing the number of bit errors and decreasing the HD. In practice, the number of samples is empirically chosen without fully considering its fundamental impact. In this paper, we present a Gaussian analytical framework for estimating the performance of a binary biometric system given the number of samples being used in the enrollment and the verification phase. The error-detection tradeoff curve that combines the false acceptance and false rejection rates is estimated to assess the system performance. The analytic expressions are validated using the Face Recognition Grand Challenge v2 and Fingerprint Verification Competition 2000 biometric databases

The path inference filter: model-based low-latency map matching of probe vehicle data

We consider the problem of reconstructing vehicle trajectories from sparse sequences of GPS points, for which the sampling interval is between 10 seconds and 2 minutes. We introduce a new class of algorithms, called altogether path inference filter (PIF), that maps GPS data in real time, for a variety of trade-offs and scenarios, and with a high throughput. Numerous prior approaches in map-matching can be shown to be special cases of the path inference filter presented in this article. We present an efficient procedure for automatically training the filter on new data, with or without ground truth observations. The framework is evaluated on a large San Francisco taxi dataset and is shown to improve upon the current state of the art. This filter also provides insights about driving patterns of drivers. The path inference filter has been deployed at an industrial scale inside the Mobile Millennium traffic information system, and is used to map fleets of data in San Francisco, Sacramento, Stockholm and Porto.Comment: Preprint, 23 pages and 23 figure

Modeling Temporal Pattern and Event Detection using Hidden Markov Model with Application to a Sludge Bulking Data

This paper discusses a method of modeling temporal pattern and event detection based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for a continuous time series data. We also provide methods for checking model adequacy and predicting future events. These methods are applied to a real example of sludge bulking data for detecting sludge bulking for a water plant in Chicago