Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK: literature review

Smart grids are expected to play a central role in any transition to a low-carbon energy future, and much research is currently underway on practically every area of smart grids. However, it is evident that even basic aspects such as theoretical and operational definitions, are yet to be agreed upon and be clearly defined. Some aspects (efficient management of supply, including intermittent supply, two-way communication between the producer and user of electricity, use of IT technology to respond to and manage demand, and ensuring safe and secure electricity distribution) are more commonly accepted than others (such as smart meters) in defining what comprises a smart grid. It is clear that smart grid developments enjoy political and financial support both at UK and EU levels, and from the majority of related industries. The reasons for this vary and include the hope that smart grids will facilitate the achievement of carbon reduction targets, create new employment opportunities, and reduce costs relevant to energy generation (fewer power stations) and distribution (fewer losses and better stability). However, smart grid development depends on additional factors, beyond the energy industry. These relate to issues of public acceptability of relevant technologies and associated risks (e.g. data safety, privacy, cyber security), pricing, competition, and regulation; implying the involvement of a wide range of players such as the industry, regulators and consumers. The above constitute a complex set of variables and actors, and interactions between them. In order to best explore ways of possible deployment of smart grids, the use of scenarios is most adequate, as they can incorporate several parameters and variables into a coherent storyline. Scenarios have been previously used in the context of smart grids, but have traditionally focused on factors such as economic growth or policy evolution. Important additional socio-technical aspects of smart grids emerge from the literature review in this report and therefore need to be incorporated in our scenarios. These can be grouped into four (interlinked) main categories: supply side aspects, demand side aspects, policy and regulation, and technical aspects.

Investigating the impact of asset condition on distribution network reconfiguration and its capacity value

Ph. D. ThesisGenerally, decisions regarding Distribution Network (DN) operations are based only on operational parameters, such as voltages, currents and power flows. Asset condition is a key parameter that is usually not considered by Network Management Systems (NMSs) in their optimization process. The work in this thesis seeks to quantify the extent to which asset condition information can positively influence network operation and planning; specifically through Distribution Network Reconfiguration (DNR). Asset condition can be translated into Health Indices (HIs) and failure rates, allowing an NMS – or an optimization algorithm – to make better informed decisions. This is realized via appropriate asset condition assessment and failure rate models. The effect on optimal DNR is evaluated – focusing on substation condition and reliability; the idea of load transfer from one feeder or substation to a more reliable one is key in the proposed methodology. Condition-based risk is considered in the DNR problem, and the impact of transformer ageing on network reconfiguration is examined as well. The effect of asset condition assessment and ageing – which depends on the type of network branches (overhead lines or underground cables) – on the optimal distribution switch automation is also investigated. Finally, a probabilistic method is developed to quantify the contribution of DNR to network security considering asset condition and ageing. The results show that savings can be in the order of tens of thousands of U.S. dollars for a single DN; this corresponds approximately to 10% of the annual cost of active power losses. This can mean hundreds of thousands – or even millions – of U.S. dollars of savings for a single DN operator. Regarding the optimal placement of automated switches, neglecting the effect of asset ageing can result in an underestimation of expected outage cost by as much as $223,000 over a 20-year period. Finally, ignoring the contribution of DNR to security of supply can double the estimation of network risk; in addition to that, disregarding asset condition and ageing results in a reinforcement deferral overestimation of two years

Combination of SCOR-BSC and Regression Linear Programming to Assess the Performance of Construction SMEs in DIY and Central Java

Several metrics in the supply chain performance assessment system cannot be uncovered by merely putting a strategy into action. Meanwhile, the balanced scorecard strategy necessitates the incorporation of numerous measures derived from the implementation of strategies, ultimately guiding the business toward its long-term orientation. The same is true for evaluating the effectiveness of a supply chain. The Business Service Chain (BSC) takes three viewpoints of the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) and expands them into four: financial, customer, internal business, and innovation and learning. Both the SCOR and BSC methods can be utilized to implement a sustainable supply chain management system. These two methods were employed to solve supply chain issues in the construction industry. BSC aimed to compensate for SCOR’s limited focus on performance by considering two angles—those of internal business operations and customers. When compared to SCOR, BSC’s uniformity in the supply chain allowed for more adaptable metrics when resizing; more applicable models, encompassing all processes; and easier performance monitoring; all through the utilization of various metrics

Combination of SCOR-BSC and Regression Linear Programming to Assess the Performance of Construction SMEs in DIY and Central Java

Several metrics in the supply chain performance assessment system cannot be uncovered by merely putting a strategy into action. Meanwhile, the balanced scorecard strategy necessitates the incorporation of numerous measures derived from the implementation of strategies, ultimately guiding the business toward its long-term orientation. The same is true for evaluating the effectiveness of a supply chain. The Business Service Chain (BSC) takes three viewpoints of the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) and expands them into four: financial, customer, internal business, and innovation and learning. Both the SCOR and BSC methods can be utilized to implement a sustainable supply chain management system. These two methods were employed to solve supply chain issues in the construction industry. BSC aimed to compensate for SCOR’s limited focus on performance by considering two angles—those of internal business operations and customers. When compared to SCOR, BSC’s uniformity in the supply chain allowed for more adaptable metrics when resizing; more applicable models, encompassing all processes; and easier performance monitoring; all through the utilization of various metrics

Modelling load balance type static var compensator control system response

As power system interconnection becomes more prevalent, there has been an increase in use of thyristor controlled shunt connected compensation devices for dynamic power system compensation and power transmission capacity increase. A Static Var Compensator (SVC) functions as a variable reactance capable of operating in both the inductive and capacitive region as required on a cycle by cycle basis to provide compensation at the point of connection to the power system. Voltage regulation is the operational objective of most SVCs. Therefore, transient response of SVC control systems impacts overall power system performance and inappropriate settings may lead to voltage instability. SVCs are also commonly used to convert single phase load into balanced three phase load, thereby reducing negative phase sequence voltages and currents within the power transmission system. As most load balancing SVCs are consistently operated to their capacity, removal from service to apply and test control system setting changes impacts system regulation and stability. Therefore, model development of a load balancing type SVC control system to predict response to setting changes may provide an alternative to lengthy outages of SVC plant. This paper examines the theoretical basis of thyristor controlled shunt compensation, establishing conditions for voltage support and unbalanced load compensation. Load balancing type SVC control system model development and validation is documented

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK : literature review

No abstractUK Energy Research Centr

Scenarios for the Development of Smart Grids in the UK: Literature Review

This Working Paper reviews the existing literature on the socio-technical aspects of smart grid development. This work was undertaken as part of the Scenarios for the Development of Smart Grids in the UK project

MULTI–CRITERIA HOME ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM SELECTION FOR THE SMART GRID SUPPORT

Home energy management systems (HEMS) are increasingly used as a tool that creates optimal consumption and production schedules for Smart Grids, by considering objectives such as energy costs, environmental concerns, load profiles, and consumer comfort. Multiple criteria selection of optimal HEMS seems to be superior to the traditional cost benefit assessment in measuring intangibles and soft impacts, introducing qualitative aspects in the analysis. This paper proposes an algorithm for the selection of optimal HEMS, using the fuzzy AHP method. This methodological framework provides a multi-criteria approach for estimating the benefits and costs of different HEMS within the Smart Grid uncertain environment. This method allows the decision makers to incorporate unquantifiable, asymmetrical, incomplete, non-obtainable information and partially ignorant facts into a decision model. Four criteria and eleven performances for the optimal solution selection are defined. The method is successful in the evaluation of alternatives in the presence of heterogeneous criteria and uncertain environment. The methodology is illustrated on the choice of HEMS from the power distribution company perspective. It is concluded that the evaluation of weighting factors has a decisive character in the choice of the final one of several alternative variants. Fuzzification of input values can also contribute to a more flexible view of the given problem and analysis of sensitivity to various input parameters

The Economics of Natural Gas Infrastructure Investments - Theory and Model-based Analysis for Europe

Changing supply structures, security of supply threats and efforts to eliminate bottlenecks and increase competition in the European gas market potentially warrant infrastructure investments. However, which investments are actually efficient is unclear. From a theoretical perspective, concepts from other sectors regarding the estimation of congestion cost and efficient investment can be applied - with some extensions - to natural gas markets. Investigations in a simple analytical framework, thereby, show that congestion does not necessarily imply that investment is efficient, and that there are multiple interdependencies between investments in different infrastructure elements (pipeline grid, gas storage, import terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG)) which need to be considered in an applied analysis. Such interdependencies strengthen the case for a model-based analysis. An optimization model minimizing costs can illustrate the first-best solution with respect to investments in natural gas infrastructure; gas market characteristics such as temperature-dependent stochasticity of demand or the lumpiness of investments can be included. Scenario analyses help to show the effects of changing the underlying model presumption. Hence, results are projections subject to data and model assumption - and not forecasts. However, as they depict the optimal, cost-minimizing outcome, results provide a guideline to policymakers and regulators regarding the desirable market outcome. A stochastic mixed-integer dispatch and investment model for the European natural gas infrastructure is developed as an optimization model taking the theoretical inter-dependencies into account. It is based on an extensive infrastructure database including long-distance transmission pipelines, LNG terminals and gas storage sites with a high level of spatial granularity. It is parameterized with assumptions on supply and demand developments as well as empirically derived infrastructure extension costs to perform model simulations of the European gas market until 2025. In the framework of the conservative demand forecast of the European Commission, efficient infrastructure expansion (starting from the 2010 infrastructure with all projects under construction being completed) is limited. The constant demand in combination with the newly created import capacities on the LNG (UK, Spain) and pipeline (Nord Stream, Medgaz) side means the gas infrastructure is well equipped to deal with declining European production. The reduction of flexibility provided by domestic production is compensated by flexible LNG imports if the global LNG market remains well supplied. Further scenario analyses illustrate the effects of changing the presumptions on supply and demand: A low LNG price does not increase LNG investments significantly, but reduces the requirements for pipeline investments in Europe, especially in East to West direction on the continent. An assumed decline in the flexibility of LNG imports in Europe, conversely, would greatly reduces efficient LNG capacity additions as the option to flexibly import natural gas is one of the favorable characteristics of such facilities. Consequently, investments in natural gas storage would have to increase substantially to provide flexibility through a different technology. This is also true if flexible LNG is replaced by either additional gas volumes imported via long-distance transmission pipelines from the Caspian region or if it is substituted by gas production from unconventional sources in Europe. Rising demand, intuitively, requires additional investments. The simulation of security of supply emergency scenarios demonstrates that redundant infrastructure capacities and gas stocks in excess of the volumes required to balance supply and demand can be efficient - even if the emergency probability is low. Modeling a one-month disruption of Russian transits via Ukraine and Belarus in 2020 shows that the infrastructure is rather resilient against such a threat. Reasons are alternative routes such as Nord Stream and the infrastructure investments made in the aftermath of the 2009 Ukraine transit disruption. Only limited additional investment in interconnection capacities between countries in Eastern Europe are found to be efficient. However, it also becomes evident that, with an emergency probability as low as two percent, it is efficient to stock up to 10 billion cubic meter of natural gas additionally in European gas storage facilities. Conversely, the infrastructure is found to be less resilient regarding a prolonged supply stop from North Africa as seen for Libya since February 2011. Italy would be affected particularly from a combined export disruption in Libya and Algeria, making significant investments in interconnections with Central and Northern Europe efficient. Additionally, further LNG import capacities would also be efficient to mitigate the consequences of a North African pipeline export stop. These investments in redundant import capacities become more efficient the higher the probability of the emergency. The analysis yields implications for natural gas infrastructure investments. With respect to the general results, it is illustrated how developments in one region (unconventional gas production, a new import corridor from the Caspian region) have significant implications for investments in geographically separated markets. The efficiency of investments in additional storage capacity is greatly affected by developments in the global LNG market and the composition of the European supply mix. Investments in redundant capacity to enhance security of supply are also found to be beneficial even if the probability of the respective emergency is low. However, it is also shown that a detailed analysis is required to identify specific, means-tested investment options - universal infrastructure standards may be of limited value. Furthermore, investments benefiting one region may efficiently take place outside the borders of that region. Important questions for further research, then, are (i) how these efficient investments can be incentivized through a regulatory framework and (ii) who bears their costs, which implicitly includes the question whether or not short-term security of supply is a public good. Regarding the applied analysis, further work may also target an improved modeling of interdependencies of the infrastructure system with natural gas consumption in the power and industry sectors (demand side management)