A multidimensional decision with nested probabilistic linguistic term sets and its application in corporate investment

With the rapid development of information, decision making problems in various fields have presented multidimensional, complex and uncertain characteristics. Nested probabilistic-numerical linguistic term set (NPNLTS) is an effective tool to describe complex information due to the nested structure and diverse variables. This paper extends the concept of NPNLTS, and defines an improved form, i.e., nested probabilistic linguistic term set (NPLTS), and then proposes a novel VIKOR method with nested probabilistic linguistic information to solve the model. Within the context of empirical corporate finance, a case study related to corporate investment decision is presented and handled by the novel VIKOR method. After that, comparative analysis is carried out considering other decision-making methods, decision coefficient in VIKOR, and weights of attributes. As a result, the proposed method not only provides a rational and effective solution, but also reveals the rule in the case when decision coefficient and weights of attributes change, respectively. Finally, we discuss the proposed method from the theoretical and application aspects with a view to guiding future research. To a certain extent, this study provides a new decision environment to deal with multidimensional problems

Enterprise resource planning selection using fuzzy entropy-based fuzzy MOORA method: case study in a bearing company

Seçim problemleri işletmeler açısından sıklıkla karşılaşılan ve karar vermesi zor olan problem tiplerindendir. Zor problem olmasının sebebi birçok kriter ve alternatifin aynı anda dikkate alınması gerektiği içindir. Bu problemlerin çözümü için genellikle çok kriterli karar verme yaklaşımları kullanılmaktadır. Seçim problemleri hayatın her aşamasında karşılaştığı için çok fazla çeşitlilik gösterebilmektedir. Bu çal ışmada bir işletmenin kurumsal kaynak planlaması (KKP) seçim süreci ele al ınmıştır. Yeni bir yazılım satın almak isteyen i şletmenin satın alma departmanı birçok kriter ve alternatif yazılım belirlemiştir. Bu kriterlerin en uygun düzeyde karşılandığı alternatif yazılımın seçilmesi planlanmıştır. Bu problemin çözümü için kriter ağırlıkların belirlenmesi aşamasında bulanık Entropi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Yazılım alternatiflerinin değerlendirilmesi sürecinde bulanık Oran Analiziyle Çok Amaçlı Optimizasyon (MOORA) yöntemi kullanılmış ve yazılımlardan en uygun olanına karar verilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda belirlenen üç yazılım sisteminden en uygun olanın üçüncü yazılım sistemi olduğu görülmüştür

A systematic review on multi-criteria group decision-making methods based on weights: analysis and classification scheme

Interest in group decision-making (GDM) has been increasing prominently over the last decade. Access to global databases, sophisticated sensors which can obtain multiple inputs or complex problems requiring opinions from several experts have driven interest in data aggregation. Consequently, the field has been widely studied from several viewpoints and multiple approaches have been proposed. Nevertheless, there is a lack of general framework. Moreover, this problem is exacerbated in the case of experts’ weighting methods, one of the most widely-used techniques to deal with multiple source aggregation. This lack of general classification scheme, or a guide to assist expert knowledge, leads to ambiguity or misreading for readers, who may be overwhelmed by the large amount of unclassified information currently available. To invert this situation, a general GDM framework is presented which divides and classifies all data aggregation techniques, focusing on and expanding the classification of experts’ weighting methods in terms of analysis type by carrying out an in-depth literature review. Results are not only classified but analysed and discussed regarding multiple characteristics, such as MCDMs in which they are applied, type of data used, ideal solutions considered or when they are applied. Furthermore, general requirements supplement this analysis such as initial influence, or component division considerations. As a result, this paper provides not only a general classification scheme and a detailed analysis of experts’ weighting methods but also a road map for researchers working on GDM topics or a guide for experts who use these methods. Furthermore, six significant contributions for future research pathways are provided in the conclusions.The first author acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Universities [grant number FPU18/01471]. The second and third author wish to recognize their support from the Serra Hunter program. Finally, this work was supported by the Catalan agency AGAUR through its research group support program (2017SGR00227). This research is part of the R&D project IAQ4EDU, reference no. PID2020-117366RB-I00, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/ 501100011033.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A Fuzzy AHP Approach for Supplier Selection Problem: A Case Study in a Gear Motor Company

Suuplier selection is one of the most important functions of a purchasing department. Since by deciding the best supplier, companies can save material costs and increase competitive advantage.However this decision becomes compilcated in case of multiple suppliers, multiple conflicting criteria, and imprecise parameters. In addition the uncertainty and vagueness of the experts' opinion is the prominent characteristic of the problem. therefore an extensively used multi criteria decision making tool Fuzzy AHP can be utilized as an approach for supplier selection problem. This paper reveals the application of Fuzzy AHP in a gear motor company determining the best supplier with respect to selected criteria. the contribution of this study is not only the application of the Fuzzy AHP methodology for supplier selection problem, but also releasing a comprehensive literature review of multi criteria decision making problems. In addition by stating the steps of Fuzzy AHP clearly and numerically, this study can be a guide of the methodology to be implemented to other multiple criteria decision making problems.Comment: Published in "International Journal of Managing Value and Supply Chains (IJMVSC) Vol.4, No. 3, September 2013

Multi-criteria group decision-making method for green supplier selection based on distributed interval variables

Addressing the multi-criteria group decision making problem with interval attribute values and attribute weights, this paper proposes a decision method based on attribute distribution information. The selection of green suppliers is taken as an example for decision analysis. First, in the case of group decision-making, the quantitative values of the evaluation attributes of green suppliers are imputed by decision-makers, and the relevant distributions are constructed for each attribute. Next, combined with the ranges of attribute values, the random interval values are used to describe the information represented by each attribute to overcome the loss caused by the aggregation of individual expert information into group information. We then propose the distributed interval weighted arithmetic average (DIWAA) operator and corresponding operation rules, which realizes the fusion of qualitative data and quantitative judgment. Thus, the proposed approach allows ensuring reasonable results of the multi-criteria analysis. We also construct a ranking method for alternatives based on distributed interval comprehensive scores. Finally, we verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method for the task of green supplier selection through numerical experiments

Wasserstein distance-based probabilistic linguistic TODIM method with application to the evaluation of sustainable rural tourism potential

The evaluation of sustainable rural tourism potential is a key work in sustainable rural tourism development. Due to the complexity of the rural tourism development situation and the limited cognition of people, most of the assessment problems for sustainable rural tourism potential are highly uncertain, which brings challenges to the characterisation and measurement of evaluation information. Besides, decision-makers (DMs) usually do not exhibit complete rationality in the practical evaluation process. To tackle such problems, this paper proposes a new behaviour multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) method with probabilistic linguistic terms sets (PLTSs) by integrating Wasserstein distance measure into TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multicriteria decision making) method. Firstly, a new Wasserstein-based distance measure with PLTSs is defined, and some properties of the proposed distance are developed. Secondly, based on the correlation coefficient among attributes and standard deviation of each attribute, an attribute weight determination method (called PL-CRITIC method) is proposed. Subsequently, a Wasserstein distance-based probabilistic linguistic TODIM method is developed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the evaluation of sustainable rural tourism potential, along with sensitivity and comparative analyses, as a means of illustrating the effectiveness and advantages of the new method

Bibliometric analysis of scientific production on methods to aid decision making in the last 40 years

Purpose: Multicriteria methods have gained traction in both academia and industry practices for effective decision-making over the years. This bibliometric study aims to explore and provide an overview of research carried out on multicriteria methods, in its various aspects, over the past forty-four years. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases were searched for publications from January 1945 to April 29, 2021, on multicriteria methods in titles, abstracts, and keywords. The bibliographic data were analyzed using the R bibliometrix package. Findings: This bibliometric study asserts that 29,050 authors have produced 20,861 documents on the theme of multicriteria methods in 131 countries in the last forty-four years. Scientific production in this area grows at a rate of 13.88 per year. China is the leading country in publications with 14.14%; India with 10.76%; and Iran with 8.09%. Islamic Azad University leads others with 504 publications, followed by the Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with 456 and the National Institute of Technology with 336. As for journals, Expert Systems With Applications; Sustainability; and Journal of Cleaner Production are the leading journals, which account for more than 4.67% of all indexed literature. Furthermore, Zavadskas E. and Wang J have the highest publications in the multicriteria methods domain regarding the authors. Regarding the most commonly used multicriteria decision-making methods, AHP is the most favored approach among the ten countries with the most publications in this research area, followed by TOPSIS, VIKOR, PROMETHEE, and ANP. Practical implications: The bibliometric literature review method allows the researchers to explore the multicriteria research area more extensively than the traditional literature review method. It enables a large dataset of bibliographic records to be systematically analyzed through statistical measures, yielding informative insights. Originality/value: The usefulness of this bibliometric study is summed in presenting an overview of the topic of the multicriteria methods during the previous forty-four years, allowing other academics to use this research as a starting point for their research

A STRUCTURED FRAMEWORK FOR RELIABILITY AND RISK EVALUATION IN THE MILK PROCESS INDUSTRY UNDER FUZZY ENVIRONMENT

This paper aims at proposing a novel integrated framework for studying reliability and risk issues of the curd unit in a milk process industry under uncertain environment. The considered plant’s complex series-parallel configuration was presented using the Petri Net (PN) modeling. The Fuzzy Lambda-Tau (λ-τ) approach was applied to study and analyze the reliability aspects of the considered plant. Failure dynamics of the curd unit has been analyzed with respect to increasing/ decreasing trends of the tabulated reliability indices. Availability of the considered plant shows a decreasing trend with an increase in spread values. For improving the system’s availability, a risk analysis was done to identify the most critical failure causes. Using the traditional FMEA approach, the FMEA sheet was generated on the basis of expert’s knowledge/experience. The Fuzzy-Complex Proportional Assessment (FCOPRAS) approach was applied within FMEA approach for identification of critical failure causes associated with different subsystem/components of the considered plant. In order to check the consistency of the ranking results, the Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) was applied within the FCOPRAS approach. Ranking results are compared for checking consistency and robustness of critical failure causes related decision making which would be useful in designing the finest maintenance schedule for the considered curd unit.  Overheating/moisture lead to winding failure (MSCP5), visible sediment of milk jam in filter (MBFP3), improper quality of oil (H4), blade breakage (CTK4), wearing in gears (PFM11), and cylinder leakage (CFM7) were recognized as the most critical failure causes contributing to system unavailability. The analysis results were supplied to the maintenance manager for framing a suitable time-based maintenance intervals policy for the considered unit

Analysis of Decision Support Systems of Industrial Relevance: Application Potential of Fuzzy and Grey Set Theories

The present work articulates few case empirical studies on decision making in industrial context. Development of variety of Decision Support System (DSS) under uncertainty and vague information is attempted herein. The study emphases on five important decision making domains where effective decision making may surely enhance overall performance of the organization. The focused territories of this work are i) robot selection, ii) g-resilient supplier selection, iii) third party logistics (3PL) service provider selection, iv) assessment of supply chain’s g-resilient index and v) risk assessment in e-commerce exercises. Firstly, decision support systems in relation to robot selection are conceptualized through adaptation to fuzzy set theory in integration with TODIM and PROMETHEE approach, Grey set theory is also found useful in this regard; and is combined with TODIM approach to identify the best robot alternative. In this work, an attempt is also made to tackle subjective (qualitative) and objective (quantitative) evaluation information simultaneously, towards effective decision making. Supplier selection is a key strategic concern for the large-scale organizations. In view of this, a novel decision support framework is proposed to address g-resilient (green and resilient) supplier selection issues. Green capability of suppliers’ ensures the pollution free operation; while, resiliency deals with unexpected system disruptions. A comparative analysis of the results is also carried out by applying well-known decision making approaches like Fuzzy- TOPSIS and Fuzzy-VIKOR. In relation to 3PL service provider selection, this dissertation proposes a novel ‘Dominance- Based’ model in combination with grey set theory to deal with 3PL provider selection, considering linguistic preferences of the Decision-Makers (DMs). An empirical case study is articulated to demonstrate application potential of the proposed model. The results, obtained thereof, have been compared to that of grey-TOPSIS approach. Another part of this dissertation is to provide an integrated framework in order to assess gresilient (ecosilient) performance of the supply chain of a case automotive company. The overall g-resilient supply chain performance is determined by computing a unique ecosilient (g-resilient) index. The concepts of Fuzzy Performance Importance Index (FPII) along with Degree of Similarity (DOS) (obtained from fuzzy set theory) are applied to rank different gresilient criteria in accordance to their current status of performance. The study is further extended to analyze, and thereby, to mitigate various risk factors (risk sources) involved in e-commerce exercises. A total forty eight major e-commerce risks are recognized and evaluated in a decision making perspective by utilizing the knowledge acquired from the fuzzy set theory. Risk is evaluated as a product of two risk quantifying parameters viz. (i) Likelihood of occurrence and, (ii) Impact. Aforesaid two risk quantifying parameters are assessed in a subjective manner (linguistic human judgment), rather than exploring probabilistic approach of risk analysis. The ‘crisp risk extent’ corresponding to various risk factors are figured out through the proposed fuzzy risk analysis approach. The risk factor possessing high ‘crisp risk extent’ score is said be more critical for the current problem context (toward e-commerce success). Risks are now categorized into different levels of severity (adverse consequences) (i.e. negligible, minor, marginal, critical and catastrophic). Amongst forty eight risk sources, top five risk sources which are supposed to adversely affect the company’s e-commerce performance are recognized through such categorization. The overall risk extent is determined by aggregating individual risks (under ‘critical’ level of severity) using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is then used to obtain structural relationship amongst aforementioned five risk sources. An appropriate action requirement plan is also suggested, to control and minimize risks associated with e-commerce exercises

A Multi-criteria Picture Fuzzy Decision-making Model for Green Supplier Selection based on Fractional Programming

Due to the increasing complexity in green supplier selection, there would be some important issues for expressing inherent uncertainty or imprecision of decision makers’ cognitive information in decision making process. As an extension of intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) and neutrosophic sets (NSs), picture fuzzy sets (PFSs) can better model and represent the hesitancy and uncertainty of decision makers’ preference information. In this study, an attempt has been made to present a multi-criteria picture fuzzy decision-making model for green supplier selection based on fractional programming. In this approach, the ratings of alternatives and weights of criteria are represented by PFSs and IFSs, respectively. Based on the available information, some pairs of fractional programming models are derived from the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the proposed biparametric picture fuzzy distance measure to determine the relative closeness coefficient intervals of green suppliers, which are aggregated for the criteria to generate the ranking order of all green suppliers by computing their optimal degrees of membership based on the ranking method of interval numbers. Finally, an example is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed multi-criteria decision making (MCMD) method