The magnitude of the macroeconomic impact of oil price: the case of BRICS

This paper aims to investigate the importance of the macroeconomic impact of oil prices variations on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). The topic was selected due to the significance of those leading emerging economies in global markets and to the determining role of oil in the current economy of the BRICS. The research was built upon on the Granger causality test, the impulse response function and the Cholesky variance decomposition by fitting both linear and non-linear multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) models. The model includes oil price inflation and consumer price inflation, interest rates, unemployment rates, exchange rates, imports and exports, and total industrial production. The results showed a significant impact of oil prices on the BRICS economies mainly in terms of total industrial production, exports and imports, and evidence of asymmetry was found. The remaining outcomes showed different results depending on whether the country is oil-exporting or oil-importing

Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

The paper seeks to quantitatively assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on non oil export flows in Nigeria. Theoretically, volatility-trade link is ambiguous, although a strand of studies reported inverse link between export flow and volatility. The paper employed fundamental analysis where the flow of non oil exports from the Nigerian economy is assumed to be predicated on fundamental variables: the naira exchange rate volatility, the US dollar volatility, Nigeria’s terms of trade (TOT) and index of openness (OPN). Empirical results showed presence of unit root at level, however, the null hypothesis of nonstationarity was rejected at first difference. Cointegration results revealed that a stable long run equilibrium relationship exists between non oil exports and the fundamental variables. Using quarterly observations for twenty years, vector cointegration estimate revealed that the naira exchange rate volatility decreased non oil exports by 3.65% while the same estimate for the US dollar volatility increased export of non oil in Nigeria by 5.2% in the year 2003. The paper recommends measures that would promote greater openness of the economy and exchange rate stability in the economy

Trade Shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A Global VAR Analysis

This paper studies the trade linkages between South Africa and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. We apply a global vector autoregressive model (global VAR) to investigate the degree of trade linkages and shock transmission between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the period 1995Q1-2009Q4. The model contains 32 countries and has two different estimations: the first one consists of 24 countries and one region, with the 8 countries in the euroarea treated as a single economy; and the second estimation contains 20 countries and two regions, with the BRIC and the euro area countries respectively treated as a single economy. The results suggest that trade linkages exist between our focus economies; however the magnitude differs between countries. Shocks from each BRIC country are shown to have considerable impact on South African real imports and output.BRICS, Trade Linkages, Global VAR

Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through: A Tale of Two Policy Regimes in India

This paper uses panel data to analyse the extent to which the prices of India’s imports and exports in nine product groups react to exchange rate changes before (1980-90) and after (1991-2001) a change in policy that included the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and an acceleration of trade liberalisation. It finds that for all the nine groups of Indian industries the null hypothesis of complete pass-through from exchange rate changes into import prices cannot be rejected. On the contrary, the results suggest that Indian exporters appear to have to some degree passed through exchange rate changes into foreign currency export prices in three industry groups in the 1980s and in six groups of industries in the 1990s. The increase in the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass-through in the 1990s, relative to the 1980s, may be partly attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls. Whilst the pass-through into import prices does not exhibit a structural break around 1991, a Chow test revealed the existence of such structural break in pass-through into export prices. The pass-through to import prices seems to be exogenous (determined by external factors), but the pass-through to export prices appears to be endogenous (driven by internal factors, mostly trade and exchange rate policies).sectoral exchange rate pass-through, pricing-to-market, panel estimation, India

Imports , exports , and industrial performance in India , 1970-88

In the 1960's and 1970's, India's policy of encouraging self-sufficiency by restricting imports was complemented by regulation of all facets of the industrial environment. Still, India developed a large, diversified manufacturing sector. In 1977-78, the policy environment began to change - with a relaxing of import controls and restrictions that has continued until now. With reform of industrial policies and a more expansionary macroeconomic policy, the value added in manufacturing grew from 4.5 percent a year in the 1970's to 7.9 percent a year in the 1980's. Meanwhile, gradual depreciation of the currency since 1985 has encouraged exports and brought prices in India closer to world levels. The faster growth of output and productivity in the 1980's is a welcome change from India's earlier stagnation. But deteriorating macroeconomic balances have brought India to a balance of payments crisis. Changes in tariffs and other instruments have more than compensated for relaxation of the import regime. Foreign trade has contracted relative to domestic output, despite some relaxation of quantity restrictions and attempts to increase exports. The main reason for this decline has been the increase in import prices relative to domestic output because of increasing tariffs, large real devaluations (especially after 1986), and rapidly expnanding domestic demand, which have made the domestic market more attractive than exports. Policy reform has led to faster growth of manufacturing output and productivity, but the main force behind faster growth has been increased public spending fueled by growing fiscal deficits. Another important variable has been a more accommodating import policy sustained by large external borrowings. This pattern of growth is not sustainable because of significant internal and external debt stocks that have accumulated over the last decade. Macroeconomic and trade policy must change significantly to shift the economy to a more export-oriented path - both to overcome the foreign exchange shortages and to rely more on external demand for industrial output. The authors argue that the manufacturing sector is highly responsive to relative price changes. Pessimism about elasticity has pervaded Indian policy making but they show high elasticities, indicating that the economy would respond favorably to changes in incentives.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Consumption,Trade Policy

What happens in global value chains when the markey shifts from the north to the south?

This paper charts the evolution of financial and economic crisis in the global economy and argues that the likely outcome will be sustained growth in the two very large Asian Driver economies of China and India and stagnation in the historically dominant northern economies. Given the nature of demand in low income southern economies, it is likely to be reflected in sustained demand for commodities, with other southern economy producers in global value chains being forced into lower levels of value added. Standards are likely to be of considerably reduced significance in value chains feeding into China and India. These issues are considered in the light of evidence drawn from the experience of Thai exporters of cassava, and Gabonese exporters of timber

Trade liberalization, fiscal adjustment, and exchange rate policy in India

The authors investigate the impact of India's program of economic stabilization and trade liberalization launched in 1991, a year when the country was in the throes of a foreign exchange crisis. The authors address a key policy tradeoff between trade liberalization and fiscal adjustment arising from India's heavy dependence on tariffs for public revenues. They give quantitative expression to how trade liberalization should be coordinated both with fiscal adjustment - that is, a combination of trade-neutral tax increases and expenditure reduction and with a policy of exchange rate changes to restore both internal and external equilibrium. This paper asks: What is the impact of a reduction in the fiscal deficit characteristic of stabilization programs on tax and expenditure levels, on the real exchange rate, and the current account deficit? What is the effect of a significant trade liberalization without additional external financing on macroeconomic variables such as the required degree of fiscal adjustment and change in the real exchange rate, and, at a more disaggregated level, on output levels in different export-oriented and import-substituting sectors of the economy? What would the impact of such trade liberalization look like should substantive external financing become available without the need for domestic fiscal adjustment? The questions are explored using a general equilibrium model of the Indian economy that focuses on the consequences of trade policy reform. Policymakers are, however, also interested in how various import-substituting industries would be adversely affected by trade liberalization and how particular export-oriented industries would gain from it. These objectives are reconciled by the innovative expedient of implementing two models on a common data base: 1) a disaggregated 72-sector (price sensitive) input-output version that makes simplified assumptions regarding certain economywide relationships; and 2) an aggregated 6-sector version that pays attention to those relationships and can suggest what corrections ought to be made to the results of the sectorally disaggregated analysis. The policy questions were answered for the eve of the 1991 economic reform program launched by India's policymakers. Developments in the principal macroeconomic aggregates in the first two years of the liberalization process were then compared with the outcomes of the model and generally found to correspond closely. This finding encouraged an updating of the model for fiscal 1992-93 and its deployment to analyze the consequences of a set of further economic reforms for subsequent years. The authors conclude by suggesting that the approach developed for this paper could provide broad indications of the economywide and sectoral consequences of pursuing the unfinished agenda of reforms facing policymakers not only in India but in other developing countries as well.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Consumption,EnvironmentalEconomics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Consumption