Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Distributed simulation of city inundation by coupled surface and subsurface porous flow for urban flood decision support system

We present a decision support system for flood early warning and disaster management. It includes the models for data-driven meteorological predictions, for simulation of atmospheric pressure, wind, long sea waves and seiches; a module for optimization of flood barrier gates operation; models for stability assessment of levees and embankments, for simulation of city inundation dynamics and citizens evacuation scenarios. The novelty of this paper is a coupled distributed simulation of surface and subsurface flows that can predict inundation of low-lying inland zones far from the submerged waterfront areas, as observed in St. Petersburg city during the floods. All the models are wrapped as software services in the CLAVIRE platform for urgent computing, which provides workflow management and resource orchestration.Comment: Pre-print submitted to the 2013 International Conference on Computational Scienc

Applying Real Options Thinking to Information Security in Networked Organizations

An information security strategy of an organization participating in a networked business sets out the plans for designing a variety of actions that ensure confidentiality, availability, and integrity of company’s key information assets. The actions are concerned with authentication and nonrepudiation of authorized users of these assets. We assume that the primary objective of security efforts in a company is improving and sustaining resiliency, which means security contributes to the ability of an organization to withstand discontinuities and disruptive events, to get back to its normal operating state, and to adapt to ever changing risk environments. When companies collaborating in a value web view security as a business issue, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis techniques are necessary and explicit part of their process of resource allocation and budgeting, no matter if security spendings are treated as capital investment or operating expenditures. This paper contributes to the application of quantitative approaches to assessing risks, costs, and benefits associated with the various components making up the security strategy of a company participating in value networks. We take a risk-based approach to determining what types of security a strategy should include and how much of each type is enough. We adopt a real-options-based perspective of security and make a proposal to value the extent to which alternative components in a security strategy contribute to organizational resiliency and protect key information assets from being impeded, disrupted, or destroyed

Current Results of the EC-sponsored Catchment Modelling (CatchMod) Cluster

To support the Water Framework Directive implementation, much research has been commissioned at both national and European levels. CatchMod is a cluster of these projects, which is focusing on the development of computational catchment models and related tools. This paper presents an overview of the results of the CatchMod cluster to dat

Models of everywhere revisited: a technological perspective

The concept ‘models of everywhere’ was first introduced in the mid 2000s as a means of reasoning about the environmental science of a place, changing the nature of the underlying modelling process, from one in which general model structures are used to one in which modelling becomes a learning process about specific places, in particular capturing the idiosyncrasies of that place. At one level, this is a straightforward concept, but at another it is a rich multi-dimensional conceptual framework involving the following key dimensions: models of everywhere, models of everything and models at all times, being constantly re-evaluated against the most current evidence. This is a compelling approach with the potential to deal with epistemic uncertainties and nonlinearities. However, the approach has, as yet, not been fully utilised or explored. This paper examines the concept of models of everywhere in the light of recent advances in technology. The paper argues that, when first proposed, technology was a limiting factor but now, with advances in areas such as Internet of Things, cloud computing and data analytics, many of the barriers have been alleviated. Consequently, it is timely to look again at the concept of models of everywhere in practical conditions as part of a trans-disciplinary effort to tackle the remaining research questions. The paper concludes by identifying the key elements of a research agenda that should underpin such experimentation and deployment

Construction safety and digital design: a review

As digital technologies become widely used in designing buildings and infrastructure, questions arise about their impacts on construction safety. This review explores relationships between construction safety and digital design practices with the aim of fostering and directing further research. It surveys state-of-the-art research on databases, virtual reality, geographic information systems, 4D CAD, building information modeling and sensing technologies, finding various digital tools for addressing safety issues in the construction phase, but few tools to support design for construction safety. It also considers a literature on safety critical, digital and design practices that raises a general concern about ‘mindlessness’ in the use of technologies, and has implications for the emerging research agenda around construction safety and digital design. Bringing these strands of literature together suggests new kinds of interventions, such as the development of tools and processes for using digital models to promote mindfulness through multi-party collaboration on safet

New Zealand Building Project Cost and Its Influential Factors: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach

Construction industry significantly contributes to New Zealand's economic development. However, the delivery of construction projects is usually plagued by cost overruns, which turn potentially successful projects into money-losing ventures, resulting in various other unexpected negative impacts. The objectives of the study were to identify, classify, and assess the impacts of the factors affecting project cost in New Zealand. The proposed research model was examined with structural equation modelling. Recognising the lack of a systematic approach for assessing the influencing factors associated with project cost, this study identified 30 influencing factors from various sources and quantified their relative impacts. The research data were gathered through a questionnaire survey circulated across New Zealand construction industry. A total of 283 responses were received, with a 37% response rate. A model was developed for testing the relationship between project cost and the influential factors. The proposed research model was examined with structural equation modelling (SEM). According to the results of the analysis, market and industry conditions factor has the most significant effect on project cost, while regulatory regime is the second-most significant influencing factor, followed by key stakeholders' perspectives. The findings can improve project cost performance through the identification and evaluation of the cost-influencing factors. The results of such analysis enable industry professionals to better understand cost-related risks in the complex environment