Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and requires unprecedented changes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate-change impacts. Different viewpoints and definitions are used by scientists, decision makers and stakeholders to meaning of this challenge. The complexity of this diversity is amplified by the lack of a clear goal and methodology for the exploration of alternative futures in the form of future climate-change scenarios. Such scenarios need, at the same time, to be scientifically credible (credibility) and to reflect different viewpoints (legitimacy) in order to be generalised enough while representing contextual diversity (consistency) to be relevant for decision-making (salience). This thesis develops and analyse European and Central Asian socio-economic scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to evaluate their credibility, legitimacy, consistency and relevance, with novel analytical methodologies. State-of-the-art scenario methodologies are framed on grounds of the objectives (exploratory and normative) and their links across scales (tight and loose links) and types (qualitative and quantitative). The first methodology is based on a fuzzy-set methodology to link qualitative (narratives) and quantitative (input variables to integrated assessment modelling) scenarios by assessing the different uncertainties resulting from their inherent complexities. In the second and third methodologies, a quantitative pan-European urbanisation model, stakeholder-led narratives and a qualitative concept of archetype are used discuss both the quantitative and qualitative scalability of the scenarios in a multi-scale approach. The fourth methodology combines a capital-capacities framework to link the goal of exploratory scenarios in relation to their relevance to decision-making by assessing their potential to achieve a (normative) desirable future. Overall, results suggest that linking directly the uncertainties contributes to more transparent qualitative and quantitative conversion and therefore yield more credible scenarios. When analysed across scales, global and European scenarios are consistent with both downscaled scenarios and local stakeholder-led narratives contribute to the creation of holistic and more legitimate scenarios. However, important divergences have emerged too. For instance, the scenario with high challenges to mitigation and low challenges to adaptation (SSP5) varies hugely across the European continent. The local versions of SSP5 tend to diverge from the global archetype more than the other SSPs. This divergence reflects different worldviews that challenge state-of-the-art knowledge and can ultimately question the role of global scenarios in guiding local scenario versions with a nested approach. I recommend the role of both narratives and quantifications to be equally important in capturing different uncertainties, stakes and worldviews, as well as a reframing of SSP uncertainty space as one of challenges to societal transformation, rather than one of challenges to mitigation and adaptation.</p

Development of a conceptual framework for integrated analysis and assessment of agricultural systems in SEAMLESS-IF

Production Economics,

A protocol to develop shared socio-economic pathways for European agriculture

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS. © 2019 Elsevier Lt

New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways

Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the over-exploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.Peer reviewe

Linking a storyline with multiple models: a cross-scale study of the UK power system transition

State-of-the-art scenario exercises in the energy and environment fields argue for combining qualitative storylines with quantitative modelling. This paper proposes an approach for linking a highly detailed storyline with multiple, diverse models. This approach is illustrated through a cross-scale study of the UK power system transition until 2050. The storyline, called Central Co-ordination, is linked with insights from six power system models and two appraisal techniques. First, the storyline is ‘translated’ into harmonised assumptions on power system targets for the models. Then, a new concept called the landscape of models is introduced. This landscape helps to map the key fields of expertise of individual models, including their temporal, spatial and disciplinary foci. The storyline is then assessed based on the cross-scale modelling results. While the storyline is important for transmitting information about governance and the choices of key actors, many targets aspired in it are inconsistent with modelling results. The storyline overestimates demand reduction levels, uptake of marine renewables and irreplaceability of carbon capture and storage. It underestimates the supply–demand balancing challenge, the need for back-up capacity and the role of nuclear power and interconnectors with Europe. Thus, iteratively linking storylines and models is key

Banking on Nature's Assets: How Multilateral Development Banks Can Strengthen Development by Using Ecosystem Services

Outlines the benefits of integrating the management of ecosystem services and trade-offs into strategies to improve economic development outcomes, mitigate climate change effects, and reduce economic and human costs. Recommends tools and policy options