ZARZĄDZANIE RYZYKIEM ŁAŃCUCHA DOSTAW ZA POMOCĄ METODY MONTE CARLO

In this paper, the conceptual model of risk-based cost estimation for completing tasks within supply chain is presented. This model is a hybrid. Its main unit is based on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Due to the fact that the important and difficult to evaluate input information is vector of risk-occur probabilities the use of artificial intelligence method was proposed. The model assumes the use of fuzzy logic or artificial neural networks – depending on the availability of historical data. The presented model could provide support to managers in making valuation decisions regarding various tasks in supply chain management.W artykule zaprezentowano przykład zastosowania hybrydowego systemu wspomagania decyzji w kontekście zarządzania ryzykiem w łańcuchu dostaw. Główny moduł sterownika bazuje na koncepcji symulacji Monte Carlo. Wektor danych wejściowych zawiera istotne informacje, których wyrażenie w postaci zmiennych ilościowych stanowi wyzwanie, w związku z czym zaproponowano użycie sztucznej inteligencji. W zależności od dostępności do danych historycznych, sterownik decyzyjny zastosuje sieci neuronowe lub logikę rozmytą. Zaprezentowane rozwiązanie może stanowić wsparcie dla menedżerów podczas podejmowania decyzji będących odpowiedzią na różnorodne ryzyka w obszarze zarządzania łańcuchem dostaw

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method

Organic Farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the future

How will organic farming in Europe evolve by the year 2010? The answer provides a basis for the development of different policy options and for anticipating the future relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming. The authors tackle the question using an innovative approach based on scenario analysis, offering the reader a range of scenarios that encompass the main possible evolutions of the organic farming sector. This book constitutes an innovative and reliable decision-supporting tool for policy makers, farmers and the private sector. Researchers and students operating in the field of agricultural economics will also benefit from the methodological approach adopted for the scenario analysis

Fuzzy Knowledge Based Reliability Evaluation and Its Application to Power Generating System

PhDThe method of using Fuzzy Sets Theory(FST) and Fuzzy Reasoning(FR) to aid reliability evaluation in a complex and uncertain environment is studied, with special reference to electrical power generating system reliability evaluation. Device(component) reliability prediction contributes significantly to a system's reliability through their ability to identify source and causes of unreliability. The main factors which affect reliability are identified in Reliability Prediction Process(RPP). However, the relation between reliability and each affecting factor is not a necessary and sufficient one. It is difficult to express this kind of relation precisely in terms of quantitative mathematics. It is acknowledged that human experts possesses some special characteristics that enable them to learn and reason in a vague and fuzzy environment based on their experience. Therefore, reliability prediction can be classified as a human engineer oriented decision process. A fuzzy knowledge based reliability prediction framework, in which speciality rather than generality is emphasised, is proposed in the first part of the thesis. For this purpose, various factors affected device reliability are investigated and the knowledge trees for predicting three reliability indices, i.e. failure rate, maintenance time and human error rate are presented. Human experts' empirical and heuristic knowledge are represented by fuzzy linguistic rules and fuzzy compositional rule of inference is employed as inference tool. Two approaches to system reliability evaluation are presented in the second part of this thesis. In first approach, fuzzy arithmetic are conducted as the foundation for system reliability evaluation under the fuzzy envimnment The objective is to extend the underlying fuzzy concept into strict mathematics framework in order to arrive at decision on system adequacy based on imprecise and qualitative information. To achieve this, various reliability indices are modelled as Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers(TFN) and are proceeded by extended fuzzy arithmetic operators. In second approach, the knowledge of system reliability evaluation are modelled in the form of fuzzy combination production rules and device combination sequence control algorithm. System reliability are evaluated by using fuzzy inference system. Comparison of two approaches are carried out through case studies. As an application, power generating system reliability adequacy is studied. Under the assumption that both unit reliability data and load data are subjectively estimated, these fuzzy data are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers, fuzzy capacity outage model and fuzzy load model are developed by using fuzzy arithmetic operations. Power generating system adequacy is evaluated by convoluting fuzzy capacity outage model with fuzzy load model. A fuzzy risk index named "Possibility Of Load Loss" (POLL) is defined based on the concept of fuzzy containment The proposed new index is tested on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) and satisfactory results are obtained Finally, the implementation issues of Fuzzy Rule Based Expert System Shell (FRBESS) are reported. The application of ERBESS to device reliability prediction and system reliability evaluation is discussed

A framework for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance

Poor cost performance of construction projects has been a major concern for both contractors and clients. The effective management of risk is thus critical to the success of any construction project and the importance of risk management has grown as projects have become more complex and competition has increased. Contractors have traditionally used financial mark-ups to cover the risk associated with construction projects but as competition increases and margins have become tighter they can no longer rely on this strategy and must improve their ability to manage risk. Furthermore, the construction industry has witnessed significant changes particularly in procurement methods with clients allocating greater risks to contractors. Evidence shows that there is a gap between existing risk management techniques and tools, mainly built on normative statistical decision theory, and their practical application by construction contractors. The main reason behind the lack of use is that risk decision making within construction organisations is heavily based upon experience, intuition and judgement and not on mathematical models. This thesis presents a model for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance of construction projects. The model has been developed using behavioural decision approach, fuzzy logic technology, and Artificial Intelligence technology. The methodology adopted to conduct the research involved a thorough literature survey on risk management, informal and formal discussions with construction practitioners to assess the extent of the problem, a questionnaire survey to evaluate the importance of global risk factors and, finally, repertory grid interviews aimed at eliciting relevant knowledge. There are several approaches to categorising risks permeating construction projects. This research groups risks into three main categories, namely organisation-specific, global and Acts of God. It focuses on global risk factors because they are ill-defined, less understood by contractors and difficult to model, assess and manage although they have huge impact on cost performance. Generally, contractors, especially in developing countries, have insufficient experience and knowledge to manage them effectively. The research identified the following groups of global risk factors as having significant impact on cost performance: estimator related, project related, fraudulent practices related, competition related, construction related, economy related and political related factors. The model was tested for validity through a panel of validators (experts) and crosssectional cases studies, and the general conclusion was that it could provide valuable assistance in the management of global risk factors since it is effective, efficient, flexible and user-friendly. The findings stress the need to depart from traditional approaches and to explore new directions in order to equip contractors with effective risk management tools

Establishment of a novel predictive reliability assessment strategy for ship machinery

There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme.There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme

Sustainable Assessment in Supply Chain and Infrastructure Management

In the competitive business environment or public domain, the sustainability assessment in supply chain and infrastructure management are important for any organization. Organizations are currently striving to improve their sustainable strategies through preparedness, response, and recovery because of increasing competitiveness, community, and regulatory pressure. Thus, it is necessary to develop a meaningful and more focused understanding of sustainability in supply chain management and infrastructure management practices. In the context of a supply chain, sustainability implies that companies identify, assess, and manage impacts and risks in all the echelons of the supply chain, considering downstream and upstream activities. Similarly, the sustainable infrastructure management indicates the ability of infrastructure to meet the requirements of the present without sacrificing the ability of future generations to address their needs. The complexities regarding sustainable supply chain and infrastructure management have driven managers and professionals to seek different solutions. This Special Issue aims to provide readers with the most recent research results on the aforementioned subjects. In addition, it offers some solutions and also raises some questions for further research and development toward sustainable supply chain and infrastructure management

A BIM-based Approach for Predictive Safety Planning in the Construction Industry

The number of safety incidents in the construction industry is higher than that in most of the other industries. These safety incidents can be attributed to a lack of information and training. The new line of thinking in management has been moving toward predictive decision-making methods with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI). In this regard, the construction industry has been lagging on embracing modern management concepts. Hence, it is vital to re-engineer construction management to be on par with industries such as manufacturing. Building Information Modelling (BIM) can be recognized as the most promising technology that is introduced to the construction sector in the recent past. The information contained in a BIM model can be manipulated to aid construction safety management. This research presents BIM-based methods for predictive safety planning in the construction industry. At first, a comprehensive review of construction management challenges was conducted. This review revealed that although there are some studies regarding BIM-based predictive decision-making, still some knowledge gaps can be mentioned in the safety management of construction workers and building residents. To address the mentioned challenges, at first, this study integrates BIM with fuzzy logic to improve predictive safety planning to reduce the safety incidents in the construction projects. A Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) was developed based on the causality of safety incidents. The FIS extracts construction project data from BIM models while automatically assessing the risk of each potential hazard and also the total risk of a project. The proposed method enables construction managers to prevent construction incidents and enhance the health and safety of construction workers. Furthermore, this study develops a methodological framework for rule checking and the safety-focused ruleset for BIM-enabled building construction projects in Ontario, Canada. Identified safety standards were defined in Solibri Model checker software as a ruleset. The outcomes of this section will ensure the occupant’s safety through a proper design. Moreover, the findings of this will support promoting BIM in the Canadian construction industry

A geometrical framework for forecasting cost uncertainty in innovative high value manufacturing.

Increasing competition and regulation are raising the pressure on manufacturing organisations to innovate their products. Innovation is fraught by significant uncertainty of whole product life cycle costs and this can lead to hesitance in investing which may result in a loss of competitive advantage. Innovative products exist when the minimum information for creating accurate cost models through contemporary forecasting methods does not exist. The scientific research challenge is that there are no forecasting methods available where cost data from only one time period suffices for their application. The aim of this research study was to develop a framework for forecasting cost uncertainty using cost data from only one time period. The developed framework consists of components that prepare minimum information for conversion into a future uncertainty range, forecast a future uncertainty range, and propagate the uncertainty range over time. The uncertainty range is represented as a vector space representing the state space of actual cost variance for 3 to n reasons, the dimensionality of that space is reduced through vector addition and a series of basic operators is applied to the aggregated vector in order to create a future state space of probable cost variance. The framework was validated through three case studies drawn from the United States Department of Defense. The novelty of the framework is found in the use of geometry to increase the amount of insights drawn from the cost data from only one time period and the propagation of cost uncertainty based on the geometric shape of uncertainty ranges. In order to demonstrate its benefits to industry, the framework was implemented at an aerospace manufacturing company for identifying potentially inaccurate cost estimates in early stages of the whole product life cycle

Intelligent control of mobile robot with redundant manipulator & stereovision: quantum / soft computing toolkit

The task of an intelligent control system design applying soft and quantum computational intelligence technologies discussed. An example of a control object as a mobile robot with redundant robotic manipulator and stereovision introduced. Design of robust knowledge bases is performed using a developed computational intelligence – quantum / soft computing toolkit (QC/SCOptKBTM). The knowledge base self-organization process of fuzzy homogeneous regulators through the application of end-to-end IT of quantum computing described. The coordination control between the mobile robot and redundant manipulator with stereovision based on soft computing described. The general design methodology of a generalizing control unit based on the physical laws of quantum computing (quantum information-thermodynamic trade-off of control quality distribution and knowledge base self-organization goal) is considered. The modernization of the pattern recognition system based on stereo vision technology presented. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in comparison with the structures of control systems based on soft computing for unforeseen control situations with sensor system