18,412 research outputs found

    CESAM : The CCSO annual model of the Dutch economy

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    This paper presents CESAM, a macroeconometric model of the Dutch economy based on annual data. CESAM can be characterized as a Keynesian expenditure model including a neoclassical production model and a post-Keynesian financial model. This characterization holds for most of the Dutch macroeconometric models including, for instance, FREIA-KOMPAS of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. There are, however, some interesting features that distinguish CESAM from other Dutch models: the production structure is based on a putty-clay vintage approach; the financial model is based on a system of financial accounts and is modelled using the portfolio approach; and the institutional structure of Dutch public finance is described in detail. The main objectives in using the model are to generate medium-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and to analyse economic policy

    Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models

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    This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

    THE IMPACTS OF THE MARKET PRICING OF CANADIAN ENERGY RESOURCES ON THE ALBERTA OIL INDUSTRY

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    Canada has recently enacted legislation that decontrols the price of domestically produced crude oil and natural gas. This study presents an analysis of the impacts of such decontrol via the use of an econometric model of the petroleum industry of the province of Alberta. The model developed in this study improves upon previous models in terms of the endogenizing of key variables associated with the exploration process. The model is estimated for 1958-79, and a simulation of the 1985-95 period is conducted.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

    GOVERNMENT PRICE POLICIES AND THE AVAILABILITY OF CRUDE OIL

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    This study examines the effects of price incentives on the availability of petroleum. Expected sustained higher crude oil prices to domestic producers constitute an incentive to increase both exploratory drilling and secondary and tertiary recovery of oil as well as production out of reserves. Reserve-production ratios tend to fall under high prices. Equalization of the domestic price to the real world price would make the U.S. self sufficient within a six year period. Constant prices result in no new additions to reserves after a five year period and very low production levels. Imports reach sixty-five percent of domestic consumption.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

    Causality between Energy and Economic Growth: the Italian case

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    The causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption represents a widely studied topic in energy economics literature. Although it is very well known that there is a strong correlation between energy use and growth, the issue of causality still remains to be answered. This study aims to investigate the possibility of the energydemand- led growth and growth-driven energy demand hypotheses in Italy by testing the causality between real GDP and electric power consumption through an ECM model. Results do not reveal any causality linkage.Causality; Economic growth; Energy Consumption

    Determinants of China’s Energy Imports: An Empirical Analysis

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    Sustained economic growth in China has triggered a surge of energy imports, especially oil imports. This paper investigates the determinants of China’s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and VECM techniques. The findings suggest that, in the long run, growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect China’s oil imports, while domestic energy output has a substitution effect. Thus, as the Chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands, China’s oil imports are likely to increase. Though China’s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports, its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs. It is anticipated that China will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price.Energy consumption, energy imports, China and VECM

    The SUSTRUS model: a CGE model on regional level for sustainability policies in Russia

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    The present paper describes the construction and first empirical application of the SUSTRUS model (the name of the model refers to “Sustainable Russiaâ€). This model will be the main result of the same-named EU funded project. The SUSTRUS model belongs to the group of regional CGE models, applied to analyze policies with a strong social, economic and environmental dimension. The SUSTRUS model can be used to assist policy makers in their choice of medium and long-term sustainability policies, for the implementation of the EU strategy for sustainable development in Russia as well as an efficient incorporation of the sustainability goals into the existing Russian policy tools on regional and federal levels. The SUSRUS model is constructed as a regional model on federal level, where regions are linked by interregional trade flows, a federal government level and migration. This paper will relate on the calibration of the database for the model and the addition of innovative elements in the model, necessary to model the link between the environmental, social, economic and international modules. The main data sources for the model are the public databases of Rosstat and the micro-level household data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Calibration of the model database was performed by a flexible cross-entropy minimization sub model and standard applied general equilibrium techniques. The general structure of the model will be discussed, focusing on the innovative features of the model and the link between the environmental and economic modules. The application of the model will be shown by a simulation exercise and a presentation of the main results.
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