12,879 research outputs found

    Deep Learning can Replicate Adaptive Traders in a Limit-Order-Book Financial Market

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    We report successful results from using deep learning neural networks (DLNNs) to learn, purely by observation, the behavior of profitable traders in an electronic market closely modelled on the limit-order-book (LOB) market mechanisms that are commonly found in the real-world global financial markets for equities (stocks & shares), currencies, bonds, commodities, and derivatives. Successful real human traders, and advanced automated algorithmic trading systems, learn from experience and adapt over time as market conditions change; our DLNN learns to copy this adaptive trading behavior. A novel aspect of our work is that we do not involve the conventional approach of attempting to predict time-series of prices of tradeable securities. Instead, we collect large volumes of training data by observing only the quotes issued by a successful sales-trader in the market, details of the orders that trader is executing, and the data available on the LOB (as would usually be provided by a centralized exchange) over the period that the trader is active. In this paper we demonstrate that suitably configured DLNNs can learn to replicate the trading behavior of a successful adaptive automated trader, an algorithmic system previously demonstrated to outperform human traders. We also demonstrate that DLNNs can learn to perform better (i.e., more profitably) than the trader that provided the training data. We believe that this is the first ever demonstration that DLNNs can successfully replicate a human-like, or super-human, adaptive trader operating in a realistic emulation of a real-world financial market. Our results can be considered as proof-of-concept that a DLNN could, in principle, observe the actions of a human trader in a real financial market and over time learn to trade equally as well as that human trader, and possibly better.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. To be presented at IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence in Financial Engineering (CIFEr), Bengaluru; Nov 18-21, 201

    A multi-agent platform for auction-based allocation of loads in transportation logistics

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    This paper describes an agent-based platform for the allocation of loads in distributed transportation logistics, developed as a collaboration between CWI, Dutch National Center for Mathematics and Computer Science, Amsterdam and Vos Logistics Organizing, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. The platform follows a real business scenario proposed by Vos, and it involves a set of agents bidding for transportation loads to be distributed from a central depot in the Netherlands to different locations across Germany. The platform supports both human agents (i.e. transportation planners), who can bid through specialized planning and bidding interfaces, as well as automated, software agents. We exemplify how the proposed platform can be used to test both the bidding behaviour of human logistics planners, as well as the performance of automated auction bidding strategies, developed for such settings. The paper first introduces the business problem setting and then describes the architecture and main characteristics of our auction platform. We conclude with a preliminary discussion of our experience from a human bidding experiment, involving Vos planners competing for orders both against each other and against some (simple) automated strategies

    Flexible Decision Control in an Autonomous Trading Agent

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    An autonomous trading agent is a complex piece of software that must operate in a competitive economic environment and support a research agenda. We describe the structure of decision processes in the MinneTAC trading agent, focusing on the use of evaluators – configurable, composable modules for data analysis and prediction that are chained together at runtime to support agent decision-making. Through a set of examples, we show how this structure supports sales and procurement decisions, and how those decision processes can be modified in useful ways by changing evaluator configurations. To put this work in context, we also report on results of an informal survey of agent design approaches among the competitors in the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM).autonomous trading agent;decision processes

    Smart Microgrids: Overview and Outlook

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    The idea of changing our energy system from a hierarchical design into a set of nearly independent microgrids becomes feasible with the availability of small renewable energy generators. The smart microgrid concept comes with several challenges in research and engineering targeting load balancing, pricing, consumer integration and home automation. In this paper we first provide an overview on these challenges and present approaches that target the problems identified. While there exist promising algorithms for the particular field, we see a missing integration which specifically targets smart microgrids. Therefore, we propose an architecture that integrates the presented approaches and defines interfaces between the identified components such as generators, storage, smart and \dq{dumb} devices.Comment: presented at the GI Informatik 2012, Braunschweig Germany, Smart Grid Worksho

    Optimization of Trading Physics Models of Markets

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    We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and Canonical Momenta Indicators (CMI) are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive optimization using Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used for fitting parameters shared across these shells of dynamic and trading models

    Architectures for smart end-user services in the power grid

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    Abstract-The increase of distributed renewable electricity generators, such as solar cells and wind turbines, requires a new energy management system. These distributed generators introduce bidirectional energy flows in the low-voltage power grid, requiring novel coordination mechanisms to balance local supply and demand. Closed solutions exist for energy management on the level of individual homes. However, no service architectures have been defined that allow the growing number of end-users to interact with the other power consumers and generators and to get involved in more rational energy consumption patterns using intuitive applications. We therefore present a common service architecture that allows houses with renewable energy generation and smart energy devices to plug into a distributed energy management system, integrated with the public power grid. Next to the technical details, we focus on the usability aspects of the end-user applications in order to contribute to high service adoption and optimal user involvement. The presented architecture facilitates end-users to reduce net energy consumption, enables power grid providers to better balance supply and demand, and allows new actors to join with new services. We present a novel simulator that allows to evaluate both the power grid and data communication aspects, and illustrate a 22% reduction of the peak load by deploying a central coordinator inside the home gateway of an end-user
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