12,879 research outputs found
Deep Learning can Replicate Adaptive Traders in a Limit-Order-Book Financial Market
We report successful results from using deep learning neural networks (DLNNs)
to learn, purely by observation, the behavior of profitable traders in an
electronic market closely modelled on the limit-order-book (LOB) market
mechanisms that are commonly found in the real-world global financial markets
for equities (stocks & shares), currencies, bonds, commodities, and
derivatives. Successful real human traders, and advanced automated algorithmic
trading systems, learn from experience and adapt over time as market conditions
change; our DLNN learns to copy this adaptive trading behavior. A novel aspect
of our work is that we do not involve the conventional approach of attempting
to predict time-series of prices of tradeable securities. Instead, we collect
large volumes of training data by observing only the quotes issued by a
successful sales-trader in the market, details of the orders that trader is
executing, and the data available on the LOB (as would usually be provided by a
centralized exchange) over the period that the trader is active. In this paper
we demonstrate that suitably configured DLNNs can learn to replicate the
trading behavior of a successful adaptive automated trader, an algorithmic
system previously demonstrated to outperform human traders. We also demonstrate
that DLNNs can learn to perform better (i.e., more profitably) than the trader
that provided the training data. We believe that this is the first ever
demonstration that DLNNs can successfully replicate a human-like, or
super-human, adaptive trader operating in a realistic emulation of a real-world
financial market. Our results can be considered as proof-of-concept that a DLNN
could, in principle, observe the actions of a human trader in a real financial
market and over time learn to trade equally as well as that human trader, and
possibly better.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. To be presented at IEEE Symposium on
Computational Intelligence in Financial Engineering (CIFEr), Bengaluru; Nov
18-21, 201
A multi-agent platform for auction-based allocation of loads in transportation logistics
This paper describes an agent-based platform for the allocation of loads in distributed transportation logistics, developed as a collaboration between CWI, Dutch National Center for Mathematics and Computer Science, Amsterdam and Vos Logistics Organizing, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. The platform follows a real business scenario proposed by Vos, and it involves a set of agents bidding for transportation loads to be distributed from a central depot in the Netherlands to different locations across Germany. The platform supports both human agents (i.e. transportation planners), who can bid through specialized planning and bidding interfaces, as well as automated, software agents. We exemplify how the proposed platform can be used to test both the bidding behaviour of human logistics planners, as well as the performance of automated auction bidding strategies, developed for such settings. The paper first introduces the business problem setting and then describes the architecture and main characteristics of our auction platform. We conclude with a preliminary discussion of our experience from a human bidding experiment, involving Vos planners competing for orders both against each other and against some (simple) automated strategies
Flexible Decision Control in an Autonomous Trading Agent
An autonomous trading agent is a complex piece of software that must operate in a competitive economic environment and support a research agenda. We describe the structure of decision processes in the MinneTAC trading agent, focusing on the use of evaluators – configurable, composable modules for data analysis and prediction that are chained together at runtime to support agent decision-making. Through a set of examples, we show how this structure supports sales and procurement decisions, and how those decision processes can be modified in useful ways by changing evaluator configurations. To put this work in context, we also report on results of an informal survey of agent design approaches among the competitors in the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM).autonomous trading agent;decision processes
Smart Microgrids: Overview and Outlook
The idea of changing our energy system from a hierarchical design into a set
of nearly independent microgrids becomes feasible with the availability of
small renewable energy generators. The smart microgrid concept comes with
several challenges in research and engineering targeting load balancing,
pricing, consumer integration and home automation. In this paper we first
provide an overview on these challenges and present approaches that target the
problems identified. While there exist promising algorithms for the particular
field, we see a missing integration which specifically targets smart
microgrids. Therefore, we propose an architecture that integrates the presented
approaches and defines interfaces between the identified components such as
generators, storage, smart and \dq{dumb} devices.Comment: presented at the GI Informatik 2012, Braunschweig Germany, Smart Grid
Worksho
Optimization of Trading Physics Models of Markets
We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell
stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and Canonical Momenta
Indicators (CMI) are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell
trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive
optimization using Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used for fitting
parameters shared across these shells of dynamic and trading models
Architectures for smart end-user services in the power grid
Abstract-The increase of distributed renewable electricity generators, such as solar cells and wind turbines, requires a new energy management system. These distributed generators introduce bidirectional energy flows in the low-voltage power grid, requiring novel coordination mechanisms to balance local supply and demand. Closed solutions exist for energy management on the level of individual homes. However, no service architectures have been defined that allow the growing number of end-users to interact with the other power consumers and generators and to get involved in more rational energy consumption patterns using intuitive applications. We therefore present a common service architecture that allows houses with renewable energy generation and smart energy devices to plug into a distributed energy management system, integrated with the public power grid. Next to the technical details, we focus on the usability aspects of the end-user applications in order to contribute to high service adoption and optimal user involvement. The presented architecture facilitates end-users to reduce net energy consumption, enables power grid providers to better balance supply and demand, and allows new actors to join with new services. We present a novel simulator that allows to evaluate both the power grid and data communication aspects, and illustrate a 22% reduction of the peak load by deploying a central coordinator inside the home gateway of an end-user
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