Deterministic-statistical model coupling in a DSS for river-basin management

This paper presents a method for appropriate coupling of deterministic and statistical models. In the decision-support system for the Elbe river, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to obtain the discharge statistics and corresponding average number of flood days, which is a key input variable for a rule-based model for floodplain vegetation. The required quality of the discharge time series cannot be determined by a sensitivity analysis because a deterministic model is linked to a statistical model. To solve the problem, artificial discharge time series are generated that mimic the hypothetical output of rainfall-runoff models of different accuracy. The results indicate that a feasible calibration of the rainfall-runoff model is sufficient to obtain consistency with the vegetation model in view of its sensitivity to changes in the number of flood days in the floodplains

Appropriate Accuracy of Models for Decision-Support Systems: Case Example for the Elbe River Basin

Given the growing complexity of water-resources management there will be an increasing need\ud for integrated tools to support policy analysis, communication, and research. A key aspect of the design is the\ud combination of process models from different scientific disciplines in an integrated system. In general these\ud models differ in sensitivity and accuracy, while non-linear and qualitative models can be present. The current\ud practice is that the preferences of the designers of a decision-support system, and practical considerations\ud such as data availability guide the selection of models and data. Due to a lack of clear scientific guidelines the\ud design becomes an ad-hoc process, depending on the case study at hand, while selected models can be overly\ud complex or too coarse for their purpose. Ideally, the design should allow for the ranking of selected\ud management measures according to the objectives set by end users, without being more complex than\ud necessary. De Kok and Wind [2003] refer to this approach as appropriate modeling. A good case example is\ud the ongoing pilot project aiming at the design of a decision-support system for the Elbe river basin. Four\ud functions are accounted for: navigability, floodplain ecology, flooding safety, and water quality. This paper\ud concerns the response of floodplain biotope types to river engineering works and changes in the flooding\ud frequency of the floodplains. The HBV-D conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate the impact of\ud climate and land use change on the discharge statistics. The question was raised how well this rainfall-runoff\ud model should be calibrated as compared to the observed discharge data. Sensitivity analyses indicate that a\ud value of R2 = 0.87 should be sufficient

Cross-Comparison of Climate Change adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia

A cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study areas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes region and the Orange basin are in Africa, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions of policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development of adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state of the implementation of a range of water management measures, and status of adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis of responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all of them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL region, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowl

Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice

Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and is one which will only increase in light of global changes, particularly climate change. So far, uncertainties in water management have mostly been assessed from a scientific point of view, and in quantitative terms. In this paper, we focus on the perspectives from water management practice, adopting a qualitative approach. We consider it important to know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice in order to develop practice relevant strategies for dealing with uncertainties. Framing refers to how people make sense of the world. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of ¿Uncertainty Dialogues¿ carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they encountered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit for water managers will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations. Keywords Framing - Uncertainty - Water management practic