The Opportunistic Transmission of Wireless Worms between Mobile Devices

The ubiquity of portable wireless-enabled computing and communications devices has stimulated the emergence of malicious codes (wireless worms) that are capable of spreading between spatially proximal devices. The potential exists for worms to be opportunistically transmitted between devices as they move around, so human mobility patterns will have an impact on epidemic spread. The scenario we address in this paper is proximity attacks from fleetingly in-contact wireless devices with short-range communication range, such as Bluetooth-enabled smart phones. An individual-based model of mobile devices is introduced and the effect of population characteristics and device behaviour on the outbreak dynamics is investigated. We show through extensive simulations that in the above scenario the resulting mass-action epidemic models remain applicable provided the contact rate is derived consistently from the underlying mobility model. The model gives useful analytical expressions against which more refined simulations of worm spread can be developed and tested.Comment: Submitted for publicatio

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio

A framework for epidemic spreading in multiplex networks of metapopulations

We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of the same class. We analyze both the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models within this framework, and compare macroscopic and microscopic indicators of the spreading process with extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are in excellent agreement with the simulations. We also derive an exact expression of the epidemic threshold on this general framework revealing a non-trivial dependence on the mobility parameter. Finally, we use this new formalism to address the spread of diseases in real cities, specifically in the city of Medellin, Colombia, whose population is divided into six socio-economic classes, each one identified with a layer in this multiplex formalism.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure

Variational approximations for stochastic dynamics on graphs

We investigate different mean-field-like approximations for stochastic dynamics on graphs, within the framework of a cluster-variational approach. In analogy with its equilibrium counterpart, this approach allows one to give a unified view of various (previously known) approximation schemes, and suggests quite a systematic way to improve the level of accuracy. We compare the different approximations with Monte Carlo simulations on a reversible (susceptible-infected-susceptible) discrete-time epidemic-spreading model on random graphs.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures. Minor revisions. IOP-style

Communities, Knowledge Creation, and Information Diffusion

In this paper, we examine how patterns of scientific collaboration contribute to knowledge creation. Recent studies have shown that scientists can benefit from their position within collaborative networks by being able to receive more information of better quality in a timely fashion, and by presiding over communication between collaborators. Here we focus on the tendency of scientists to cluster into tightly-knit communities, and discuss the implications of this tendency for scientific performance. We begin by reviewing a new method for finding communities, and we then assess its benefits in terms of computation time and accuracy. While communities often serve as a taxonomic scheme to map knowledge domains, they also affect how successfully scientists engage in the creation of new knowledge. By drawing on the longstanding debate on the relative benefits of social cohesion and brokerage, we discuss the conditions that facilitate collaborations among scientists within or across communities. We show that successful scientific production occurs within communities when scientists have cohesive collaborations with others from the same knowledge domain, and across communities when scientists intermediate among otherwise disconnected collaborators from different knowledge domains. We also discuss the implications of communities for information diffusion, and show how traditional epidemiological approaches need to be refined to take knowledge heterogeneity into account and preserve the system's ability to promote creative processes of novel recombinations of idea