Energy Use and Emissions Impacts from Car Technologies Market Scenarios: A Multi-Country System Dynamics Model

In the context of high energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from road passenger transport, the prospects of market diffusion of new car technologies is at present time uncertain. For instance, the impact of current oil prices on the market uptake of electric vehicles is yet to be seen. Systems thinking and scenario analysis are useful to explore possible future outcomes. This paper focuses on car technologies scenarios for the Chinese, German and US markets until 2030. The technologies investigated are: gasoline, diesel, flexi-fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell vehicles. Based on the System Dynamics approach, a model integrating discrete choice and accounting frameworks is developed. The developed System Dynamics model is applied to examine alternative policies and to estimate energy use and emissions in each of the markets under various scenarios. The model results illustrate the importance of taking indirect emissions into account. In conclusion, simulated policies sensibly alter car technology uptake and have an impact on the environment. Finally, the ideas of feedback process and expansion of model boundaries are considered to be crucial in modeling such a complex and uncertain system

A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations

An important barrier towards the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) running on hydrogen is the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure. The niche of buses for public transport, taxis and deliverers with a local application area might not be large enough to generate the reductions of FCV costs that are necessary for a general technology switch. Thus, fuel availability at trunk roads probably plays a crucial role in generating demand for FCVs also from private consumers. In this paper we assume that consumers are more likely to consider buying a FCV the more frequently they are exposed to hydrogen refueling opportunities on long distant trips. We introduce a tool to test different small scale initial distributions of hydrogen outlets within the German trunk road system for their potential success to generate a large scale adoption of FCVs. The tool makes use of agent based trip modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) supported spatial modeling. We demonstrate its potentials by testing a ring shaped distribution of hydrogen outlets at highway filling stations. We find that the structure of an optimized initial distribution of filling stations depends on what drivers consider a sufficiently small distance between refueling opportunities.Agent based modeling, Alternative fueled vehicles, Hydrogen, Fuel Cells

Atmospheric effects of the emerging mainland Chinese transportation system at and beyond the regional scale

Local surface travel needs in the People's Republic of China (mainland China) have traditionally been met largely by nonpolluting bicycles. A major automobile manufacturing/importing effort has begun in the country over the last decade, and planning documents indicate that the Chinese may strive to acquire more than 100 million vehicles early in the next century. By analogy with large automotive fleets already existing in the western world, both regional and global scale pollution effects are to be expected from the increase. The present work adopts the latest projections of Chinese automobile manufacture and performs some quantitative assessments of the extent of pollution generation. Focus for the investigation is placed upon the oxidant ozone. Emissions of the precursor species nitrogen oxides and volatile organics are constructed based on data for the current automotive sector in the eastern portion of the United States. Ozone production is first estimated from measured values for continental/oceanic scale yields relative to precursor oxidation. The estimates are then corroborated through idealized two dimensional modeling of the photochemistry taking place in springtime air flow off the Asian land mass and toward the Pacific Ocean. The projected fleet sizes could increase coastal and remote oceanic ozone concentrations by tens of parts per billion (ppb) in the lower troposphere. Influences on the tropospheric aerosol system and on the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are treated peripherally. Nitrogen oxides created during the vehicular internal combustion process will contribute to nitrate pollution levels measured in the open Pacific. The potential for soot and fugitive dust increases should be considered as the automotive infrastructure develops. Since the emerging Chinese automotive transportation system will represent a substantial addition to the global fleet and all the carbon in gasoline is eventually oxidized completely, a significant rise in global carbon dioxide inputs will ensue as well. Some policy issues are treated preliminary. The assumption is made that alterations to regional oxidant/aerosol systems and to terrestrial climate are conceivable. The likelihood that the Chinese can achieve the latest vehicle fleet goals is discussed, from the points of view of new production, positive pollution feedbacks from a growing automobile industry, and known petroleum reserves. Vehicular fuel and maintenance options lying before the Chinese are outlines and compared. To provide some perspective on the magnitude of the environmental changes associated with an Asian automotive buildup, recent estimates of the effects of future air traffic over the Pacific Rim are described

System dynamics modelling for electric and hybrid commercial vehicles adoption

Problems caused by the increasing freight transportation demand in cities call for integrated solutions where all stakeholders’ efforts are coordinated, in order to both reduce the negative impacts of freight transportation, such as pollution and congestion, and carry no disadvantages to public and private operators. Among the solutions that can be implemented for these purposes, one of the most studied and applied one is the partial or total substitution of commercial vans with low emission vehicles. Previous studies have been focused mainly on the vehicle-related factors that make such adoption sustainable for the private stakeholders. However, there is a lack of contributions that also take into account the operational aspects of a city logistics system. In order to contribute to this literature, our work develops a System Dynamics model that assesses the adoption of low emission vehicles by analysing the most important operational factors typical of a freight distribution system. Results of the simulation and the sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the adoption of low emission commercial vehicles is feasible within a reasonable time period if some strategies are put in place. For instance, public contribution including both incentives to low emission vehicles and disincentives to traditional ones could effectively increase the adoption process, along with effective advertising campaigns about the operational benefits given by such distribution model