Universal Codes from Switching Strategies

We discuss algorithms for combining sequential prediction strategies, a task which can be viewed as a natural generalisation of the concept of universal coding. We describe a graphical language based on Hidden Markov Models for defining prediction strategies, and we provide both existing and new models as examples. The models include efficient, parameterless models for switching between the input strategies over time, including a model for the case where switches tend to occur in clusters, and finally a new model for the scenario where the prediction strategies have a known relationship, and where jumps are typically between strongly related ones. This last model is relevant for coding time series data where parameter drift is expected. As theoretical ontributions we introduce an interpolation construction that is useful in the development and analysis of new algorithms, and we establish a new sophisticated lemma for analysing the individual sequence regret of parameterised models

Recovering from External Disturbances in Online Manipulation through State-Dependent Revertive Recovery Policies

Robots are increasingly entering uncertain and unstructured environments. Within these, robots are bound to face unexpected external disturbances like accidental human or tool collisions. Robots must develop the capacity to respond to unexpected events. That is not only identifying the sudden anomaly, but also deciding how to handle it. In this work, we contribute a recovery policy that allows a robot to recovery from various anomalous scenarios across different tasks and conditions in a consistent and robust fashion. The system organizes tasks as a sequence of nodes composed of internal modules such as motion generation and introspection. When an introspection module flags an anomaly, the recovery strategy is triggered and reverts the task execution by selecting a target node as a function of a state dependency chart. The new skill allows the robot to overcome the effects of the external disturbance and conclude the task. Our system recovers from accidental human and tool collisions in a number of tasks. Of particular importance is the fact that we test the robustness of the recovery system by triggering anomalies at each node in the task graph showing robust recovery everywhere in the task. We also trigger multiple and repeated anomalies at each of the nodes of the task showing that the recovery system can consistently recover anywhere in the presence of strong and pervasive anomalous conditions. Robust recovery systems will be key enablers for long-term autonomy in robot systems. Supplemental info including code, data, graphs, and result analysis can be found at [1].Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Hybrid modeling, HMM/NN architectures, and protein applications

We describe a hybrid modeling approach where the parameters of a model are calculated and modulated by another model, typically a neural network (NN), to avoid both overfitting and underfitting. We develop the approach for the case of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), by deriving a class of hybrid HMM/NN architectures. These architectures can be trained with unified algorithms that blend HMM dynamic programming with NN backpropagation. In the case of complex data, mixtures of HMMs or modulated HMMs must be used. NNs can then be applied both to the parameters of each single HMM, and to the switching or modulation of the models, as a function of input or context. Hybrid HMM/NN architectures provide a flexible NN parameterization for the control of model structure and complexity. At the same time, they can capture distributions that, in practice, are inaccessible to single HMMs. The HMM/NN hybrid approach is tested, in its simplest form, by constructing a model of the immunoglobulin protein family. A hybrid model is trained, and a multiple alignment derived, with less than a fourth of the number of parameters used with previous single HMMs