Unavailability of K-out-of-N: G Systems with non-identical Components Based on Markov Model

The process industry has always been faced with the challenging tasks of determining the overall unavailability of safety instrumented systems (SISs). The unavailability of the safety instrumented system is quantified by considering the average probability of failure on demand. To mitigate these challenges, the IEC 61508 has established analytical formulas for estimating the average probability of failure on demand for K-out-of-N (KooN) architectures. However, these formulas are limited to the system with identical components and this limitation has not been addressed in many researches. Hence, this paper proposes an unavailability model based on Markov Model for different redundant system architectures with non-identical components and generalised formulas are established for non-identical k-out-of-n and n-out-of-n configurations. Furthermore, the proposed model incorporates undetected failure rate and evaluates its impact on the unavailability quantification of SIS. The accuracy of the proposed model is verified with the existing unavailability methods and it is shown that the proposed approach provides a sufficiently robust result for all system architectures. &nbsp

Unavailability assessment of redundant safety instrumented systems subject to process demand

Sriramula’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of re-search.Peer reviewedPostprin

Average probability of failure on demand estimation for burner management systems

Proper estimation of Safety Integrity Level (SIL) depends largely on accurate estimation of Safety performance in terms of average Probability of Failure on Demand, (PFDavg). For complex architectures of logic solvers, sensors, and valves, this can be calculated by distinguishing combinations of subsystems with basic (K-out-of-N) KooN approach for identical components. In the case of the typical configurations of valves for a burner management systems with non-identical subsystem configurations the KooN approach does not apply. Hence, it becomes an issues to calculate the correct safety performance since some of the established methods give too optimistic results due to lack of Common cause Failure information and data on non-identical components or sub-systems. This paper formulates a Markov model for determination of average probability of failure on demand for non-identical components and also proposes a more conservative lowest failure rate approach and maximum beta factor contrary to pragmatic minimum or average beta for correct estimation of average probability of failure on demand. It can be deduced that the measure of safety performance for components or subsystems with unequal failure rates depends largely on common cause failure, but a single beta factor is not appropriate to model the commonality of the failure. The result revealed that both geometric mean and lowest failure rate approaches result in different values with the lowest failure rate being the most conservative and optimistic result.Keywords: burner management systems, probability of failure on demand, common cause failure, KooN configurations, and lowest failure rate, Markov Analysi

Optimization of maintenances following proof tests for the final element of a safety-instrumented system

2019 The Authors Safety-instrumented systems (SISs) have been widely installed to prevent accidental events and mitigate their consequences. Mechanical final elements of SISs often become vulnerable with time due to degradations, but the particulars in SIS operations and assessment impede the adaption of state-of-art research results on maintenances into this domain. This paper models the degradation of SIS final element as a stochastic process. Based on the observed information during a proof test, it is essential to determine an optimal maintenance strategy by choosing a preventive maintenance (PM) or corrective maintenance (CM), as well deciding what degree of mitigation of degradation is enough in case of a PM. When the reasonable initiation situation of a PM and the optimal maintenance degree are identified, lifetime cost of the final element can be minimized while keeping satisfying the integrity level requirement for the SIS. A numerical example is introduced to illustrate how the presenting methods are used to examine the effects of maintenance strategies on cost and the average probability of failure on demands (PFDavg) of a SIS. Intervals of the upcoming tests thus can be updated to provide maintenance crews with more clues on cost-effective tests without weakening safety

Impact of common cause failure on reliability performance of redundant safety related systems subject to process demand

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and feedback.Peer reviewedPostprin

Reliability modelling of redundant safety systems without automatic diagnostics incorporating common cause failures and process demand

Sriramula’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of re-search.Peer reviewedPostprin

Modelling and design of safety instrumented systems for upstream processes of petroleum sector

The adequacy of the decision-making regarding the specification of Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) deployed for hazardous processes, contributes to avoiding incidents and corresponding losses. This paper proposes an approach to mathematically and economically substantiated design of SIS. Markov analysis is used for the stochastic process of SIS failures and technological incidents occurrence. The model is used further for multi-objective optimization of SIS design. The research is relevant to engineering departments and contractors, who specialise in planning and designing the technological solution.publishedVersio

Online disturbance prediction for enhanced availability in smart grids

A gradual move in the electric power industry towards Smart Grids brings new challenges to the system's efficiency and dependability. With a growing complexity and massive introduction of renewable generation, particularly at the distribution level, the number of faults and, consequently, disturbances (errors and failures) is expected to increase significantly. This threatens to compromise grid's availability as traditional, reactive management approaches may soon become insufficient. On the other hand, with grids' digitalization, real-time status data are becoming available. These data may be used to develop advanced management and control methods for a sustainable, more efficient and more dependable grid. A proactive management approach, based on the use of real-time data for predicting near-future disturbances and acting in their anticipation, has already been identified by the Smart Grid community as one of the main pillars of dependability of the future grid. The work presented in this dissertation focuses on predicting disturbances in Active Distributions Networks (ADNs) that are a part of the Smart Grid that evolves the most. These are distribution networks with high share of (renewable) distributed generation and with systems in place for real-time monitoring and control. Our main goal is to develop a methodology for proactive network management, in a sense of proactive mitigation of disturbances, and to design and implement a method for their prediction. We focus on predicting voltage sags as they are identified as one of the most frequent and severe disturbances in distribution networks. We address Smart Grid dependability in a holistic manner by considering its cyber and physical aspects. As a result, we identify Smart Grid dependability properties and develop a taxonomy of faults that contribute to better understanding of the overall dependability of the future grid. As the process of grid's digitization is still ongoing there is a general problem of a lack of data on the grid's status and especially disturbance-related data. These data are necessary to design an accurate disturbance predictor. To overcome this obstacle we introduce a concept of fault injection to simulation of power systems. We develop a framework to simulate a behavior of distribution networks in the presence of faults, and fluctuating generation and load that, alone or combined, may cause disturbances. With the framework we generate a large set of data that we use to develop and evaluate a voltage-sag disturbance predictor. To quantify how prediction and proactive mitigation of disturbances enhance availability we create an availability model of a proactive management. The model is generic and may be applied to evaluate the effect of proactive management on availability in other types of systems, and adapted for quantifying other types of properties as well. Also, we design a metric and a method for optimizing failure prediction to maximize availability with proactive approach. In our conclusion, the level of availability improvement with proactive approach is comparable to the one when using high-reliability and costly components. Following the results of the case study conducted for a 14-bus ADN, grid's availability may be improved by up to an order of magnitude if disturbances are managed proactively instead of reactively. The main results and contributions may be summarized as follows: (i) Taxonomy of faults in Smart Grid has been developed; (ii) Methodology and methods for proactive management of disturbances have been proposed; (iii) Model to quantify availability with proactive management has been developed; (iv) Simulation and fault-injection framework has been designed and implemented to generate disturbance-related data; (v) In the scope of a case study, a voltage-sag predictor, based on machine- learning classification algorithms, has been designed and the effect of proactive disturbance management on downtime and availability has been quantified