Bayesian Network Models of Causal Interventions in Healthcare Decision Making: Literature Review and Software Evaluation

This report summarises the outcomes of a systematic literature search to identify Bayesian network models used to support decision making in healthcare. After describing the search methodology, the selected research papers are briefly reviewed, with the view to identify publicly available models and datasets that are well suited to analysis using the causal interventional analysis software tool developed in Wang B, Lyle C, Kwiatkowska M (2021). Finally, an experimental evaluation of applying the software on a selection of models is carried out and preliminary results are reported.Comment: 50 pages (19 + 31 Appendix

Machine learning for radiation outcome modeling and prediction

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155503/1/mp13570_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155503/2/mp13570.pd

Towards Integration of Artificial Intelligence into Medical Devices as a Real-Time Recommender System for Personalised Healthcare:State-of-the-Art and Future Prospects

In the era of big data, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have the potential to revolutionize healthcare by improving patient outcomes and reducing healthcare costs. AI algorithms have frequently been used in health care for predictive modelling, image analysis and drug discovery. Moreover, as a recommender system, these algorithms have shown promising impacts on personalized healthcare provision. A recommender system learns the behaviour of the user and predicts their current preferences (recommends) based on their previous preferences. Implementing AI as a recommender system improves this prediction accuracy and solves cold start and data sparsity problems. However, most of the methods and algorithms are tested in a simulated setting which cannot recapitulate the influencing factors of the real world. This review article systematically reviews prevailing methodologies in recommender systems and discusses the AI algorithms as recommender systems specifically in the field of healthcare. It also provides discussion around the most cutting-edge academic and practical contributions present in the literature, identifies performance evaluation matrices, challenges in the implementation of AI as a recommender system, and acceptance of AI-based recommender systems by clinicians. The findings of this article direct researchers and professionals to comprehend currently developed recommender systems and the future of medical devices integrated with real-time recommender systems for personalized healthcare

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationTemporal reasoning denotes the modeling of causal relationships between different variables across different instances of time, and the prediction of future events or the explanation of past events. Temporal reasoning helps in modeling and understanding interactions between human pathophysiological processes, and in predicting future outcomes such as response to treatment or complications. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) support modeling changes in patients' condition over time due to both diseases and treatments, using probabilistic relationships between different clinical variables, both within and across different points in time. We describe temporal reasoning and representation in general and DBN in particular, with special attention to DBN parameter learning and inference. We also describe temporal data preparation (aggregation, consolidation, and abstraction) techniques that are applicable to medical data that were used in our research. We describe and evaluate various data discretization methods that are applicable to medical data. Projeny, an opensource probabilistic temporal reasoning toolkit developed as part of this research, is also described. We apply these methods, techniques, and algorithms to two disease processes modeled as Dynamic Bayesian Networks. The first test case is hyperglycemia due to severe illness in patients treated in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). We model the patients' serum glucose and insulin drip rates using Dynamic Bayesian Networks, and recommend insulin drip rates to maintain the patients' serum glucose within a normal range. The model's safety and efficacy are proven by comparing it to the current gold standard. The second test case is the early prediction of sepsis in the emergency department. Sepsis is an acute life threatening condition that requires timely diagnosis and treatment. We present various DBN models and data preparation techniques that detect sepsis with very high accuracy within two hours after the patients' admission to the emergency department. We also discuss factors affecting the computational tractability of the models and appropriate optimization techniques. In this dissertation, we present a guide to temporal reasoning, evaluation of various data preparation, discretization, learning and inference methods, proofs using two test cases using real clinical data, an open-source toolkit, and recommend methods and techniques for temporal reasoning in medicine

Investigation of Effective Classification Method for Online Health Service Recommendation System

Hospital Recommendation Services have been gaining popularity these days. There are many applications and systems that are recommending hospitals based on the user’s requirements and to meet the patient satisfaction. These applications take the reviews of the patients and the users and based on these reviews, they recommend the hospitals. Also if a person is new to the location that he is currently residing, when the speciality is given as input by him, then these applications recommend the hospitals. But the problem is that everyone is not aware of the medical terms like specialities. For those people, “Health Service Recommendation System” comes handy. “Health Service Recommendation System” is an Android Application for finding hospitals within a specified range of distance and requirements provided by the client using the Naïve Bayes classification algorithm. Naïve Bayes algorithm classifies the speciality and thus helps in achieving the maximum accuracy compared to the other algorithms used. This application is helpful even for the people who are not aware of the specialities of the hospitals

Diagnostic algorithm, prognostic factors and surgical treatment of metastatic cancer diseases of the long bones and spine

Oncological management of skeletal metastases has changed dramatically in the last few decades. A significant number of patients survive for many years with their metastases.Surgeons are more active and the technical repertoire is broader, from plates to intramedullary devices to (tumour) endoprostheses.The philosophy of treatment should be different in the case of a trauma-related fracture and a pathological fracture. A proper algorithm for establishing a diagnosis and evaluation of prognostic factors helps in planning the surgical intervention.The aim of palliative surgery is usually to eliminate pain and to allow the patient to regain his/her mobility as well as to improve the quality of life through minimally invasive techniques using life-long durable devices.In a selected group of patients with an oncologically controlled primary tumour site and a solitary bone metastasis with positive prognostic factors, which meet the criteria for radical excision (approximately 10% to 15% of the cases), a promising three to five years of survival may be achieved, especially in cases of metastases from breast and kidney cancer.Spinal metastases require meticulous evaluation because decisions on treatment mostly depend on the tumour type, segmental stability, the patient's symptoms and general state of health.Advanced radiotherapy combined with minimally invasive surgical techniques (minimally invasive stabilisation and separation surgery) provides durable local control with a low complication rate in a number of patients. Cite this article: EFORT Open Rev 2017;2:372-381

Incorporating Deep Learning Techniques into Outcome Modeling in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients after Radiation Therapy

Radiation therapy (radiotherapy) together with surgery, chemotherapy, and immunotherapy are common modalities in cancer treatment. In radiotherapy, patients are given high doses of ionizing radiation which is aimed at killing cancer cells and shrinking tumors. Conventional radiotherapy usually gives a standard prescription to all the patients, however, as patients are likely to have heterogeneous responses to the treatment due to multiple prognostic factors, personalization of radiotherapy treatment is desirable. Outcome models can serve as clinical decision-making support tools in the personalized treatment, helping evaluate patients’ treatment options before the treatment or during fractionated treatment. It can further provide insights into designing of new clinical protocols. In the outcome modeling, two indices including tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) are usually investigated. Current outcome models, e.g., analytical models and data-driven models, either fail to take into account complex interactions between physical and biological variables or require complicated feature selection procedures. Therefore, in our studies, deep learning (DL) techniques are incorporated into outcome modeling for prediction of local control (LC), which is TCP in our case, and radiation pneumonitis (RP), which is NTCP in our case, in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients after radiotherapy. These techniques can improve the prediction performance of outcomes and simplify model development procedures. Additionally, longitudinal data association, actuarial prediction, and multi-endpoints prediction are considered in our models. These were carried out in 3 consecutive studies. In the first study, a composite architecture consisting of variational auto-encoder (VAE) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) was investigated and applied to RP prediction. The architecture enabled the simultaneous dimensionality reduction and prediction. The novel VAE-MLP joint architecture with area under receiver operative characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC) [95% CIs] 0.781 [0.737-0.808] outperformed a strategy which involves separate VAEs and classifiers (AUC 0.624 [ 0.577-0.658]). In the second study, composite architectures consisted of 1D convolutional layer/ locally-connected layer and MLP that took into account longitudinal associations were applied to predict LC. Composite architectures convolutional neural network (CNN)-MLP that can model both longitudinal and non-longitudinal data yielded an AUC 0.832 [ 0.807-0.841]. While plain MLP only yielded an AUC 0.785 [CI: 0.752-0.792] in LC control prediction. In the third study, rather than binary classification, time-to-event information was also incorporated for actuarial prediction. DL architectures ADNN-DVH which consider dosimetric information, ADNN-com which further combined biological and imaging data, and ADNN-com-joint which realized multi-endpoints prediction were investigated. Analytical models were also conducted for comparison purposes. Among all the models, ADNN-com-joint performed the best, yielding c-indexes of 0.705 [0.676-0.734] for RP2, 0.740 [0.714-0.765] for LC and an AU-FROC 0.720 [0.671-0.801] for joint prediction. The performance of proposed models was also tested on a cohort of newly-treated patients and multi-institutional RTOG0617 datasets. These studies taken together indicate that DL techniques can be utilized to improve the performance of outcome models and potentially provide guidance to physicians during decision making. Specifically, a VAE-MLP joint architectures can realize simultaneous dimensionality reduction and prediction, boosting the performance of conventional outcome models. A 1D CNN-MLP joint architecture can utilize temporal-associated variables generated during the span of radiotherapy. A DL model ADNN-com-joint can realize multi-endpoint prediction, which allows considering competing risk factors. All of those contribute to a step toward enabling outcome models as real clinical decision support tools.PHDApplied PhysicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/162923/1/sunan_1.pd

Reinforcement learning and Bayesian data assimilation for model‐informed precision dosing in oncology

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) using therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring offers the opportunity to significantly improve the efficacy and safety of drug therapies. Current strategies comprise model-informed dosing tables or are based on maximum a posteriori estimates. These approaches, however, lack a quantification of uncertainty and/or consider only part of the available patient-specific information. We propose three novel approaches for MIPD using Bayesian data assimilation (DA) and/or reinforcement learning (RL) to control neutropenia, the major dose-limiting side effect in anticancer chemotherapy. These approaches have the potential to substantially reduce the incidence of life-threatening grade 4 and subtherapeutic grade 0 neutropenia compared with existing approaches. We further show that RL allows to gain further insights by identifying patient factors that drive dose decisions. Due to its flexibility, the proposed combined DA-RL approach can easily be extended to integrate multiple end points or patient-reported outcomes, thereby promising important benefits for future personalized therapies