Resilience and efficiency in transportation networks

abstract: Urban transportation systems are vulnerable to congestion, accidents, weather, special events, and other costly delays. Whereas typical policy responses prioritize reduction of delays under normal conditions to improve the efficiency of urban road systems, analytic support for investments that improve resilience (defined as system recovery from additional disruptions) is still scarce. In this effort, we represent paved roads as a transportation network by mapping intersections to nodes and road segments between the intersections to links. We built road networks for 40 of the urban areas defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. We developed and calibrated a model to evaluate traffic delays using link loads. The loads may be regarded as traffic-based centrality measures, estimating the number of individuals using corresponding road segments. Efficiency was estimated as the average annual delay per peak-period auto commuter, and modeled results were found to be close to observed data, with the notable exception of New York City. Resilience was estimated as the change in efficiency resulting from roadway disruptions and was found to vary between cities, with increased delays due to a 5% random loss of road linkages ranging from 9.5% in Los Angeles to 56.0% in San Francisco. The results demonstrate that many urban road systems that operate inefficiently under normal conditions are nevertheless resilient to disruption, whereas some more efficient cities are more fragile. The implication is that resilience, not just efficiency, should be considered explicitly in roadway project selection and justify investment opportunities related to disaster and other disruptions

SciTech News Volume 71, No. 1 (2017)

Columns and Reports From the Editor 3 Division News Science-Technology Division 5 Chemistry Division 8 Engineering Division Aerospace Section of the Engineering Division 9 Architecture, Building Engineering, Construction and Design Section of the Engineering Division 11 Reviews Sci-Tech Book News Reviews 12 Advertisements IEEE

Advanced flight control system study

The architecture, requirements, and system elements of an ultrareliable, advanced flight control system are described. The basic criteria are functional reliability of 10 to the minus 10 power/hour of flight and only 6 month scheduled maintenance. A distributed system architecture is described, including a multiplexed communication system, reliable bus controller, the use of skewed sensor arrays, and actuator interfaces. Test bed and flight evaluation program are proposed

Multi-attribute tradespace exploration for survivability

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2009.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 235-249).Survivability is the ability of a system to minimize the impact of a finite-duration disturbance on value delivery (i.e., stakeholder benefit at cost), achieved through (1) the reduction of the likelihood or magnitude of a disturbance, (2) the satisfaction of a minimally acceptable level of value delivery during and after a disturbance, and/or (3) a timely recovery. Traditionally specified as a requirement in military systems, survivability is an increasingly important consideration for all engineering systems given the proliferation of natural and artificial threats. Although survivability is an emergent system property that arises from interactions between a system and its environment, conventional approaches to survivability engineering are reductionist in nature. Furthermore, current methods neither accommodate dynamic threat environments nor facilitate stakeholder communication for conducting trade-offs among system lifecycle cost, mission utility, and operational survivability. Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) for Survivability is introduced as a system analysis methodology to improve the generation and evaluation of survivable alternatives during conceptual design. MATE for Survivability applies decision theory to the parametric modeling of thousands of design alternatives across representative distributions of disturbance environments. To improve the generation of survivable alternatives, seventeen empirically-validated survivability design principles are introduced. The general set of design principles allows the consideration of structural and behavioral strategies for mitigating the impact of disturbances over the lifecycle of a given encounter.(cont.) To improve the evaluation of survivability, value-based metrics are introduced for the assessment of survivability as a dynamic, continuous, and path-dependent system property. Two of these metrics, time-weighted average utility loss and threshold availability, are used to evaluate survivability based on the relationship between stochastic utility trajectories of system state and stakeholder expectations across nominal and perturbed environments. Finally, the survivability "tear(drop)" tradespace is introduced to enable the identification of inherently survivable architectures that efficiently balance performance metrics of cost, utility, and survivability. The internal validity and prescriptive value of the design principles, metrics, and tradespaces comprising MATE for Survivability are established through applications to the designs of an orbital transfer vehicle and a satellite radar system.by Matthew G. Richards.Ph.D

Investigation of the tolerance of wavelength-routed optical networks to traffic load variations.

This thesis focuses on the performance of circuit-switched wavelength-routed optical network with unpredictable traffic pattern variations. This characteristic of optical networks is termed traffic forecast tolerance. First, the increasing volume and heterogeneous nature of data and voice traffic is discussed. The challenges in designing robust optical networks to handle unpredictable traffic statistics are described. Other work relating to the same research issues are discussed. A general methodology to quantify the traffic forecast tolerance of optical networks is presented. A traffic model is proposed to simulate dynamic, non-uniform loads, and used to test wavelength-routed optical networks considering numerous network topologies. The number of wavelengths required and the effect of the routing and wavelength allocation algorithm are investigated. A new method of quantifying the network tolerance is proposed, based on the calculation of the increase in the standard deviation of the blocking probabilities with increasing traffic load non-uniformity. The performance of different networks are calculated and compared. The relationship between physical features of the network topology and traffic forecast tolerance is investigated. A large number of randomly connected networks with different sizes were assessed. It is shown that the average lightpath length and the number of wavelengths required for full interconnection of the nodes in static operation both exhibit a strong correlation with the network tolerance, regardless of the degree of load non-uniformity. Finally, the impact of wavelength conversion on network tolerance is investigated. Wavelength conversion significantly increases the robustness of optical networks to unpredictable traffic variations. In particular, two sparse wavelength conversion schemes are compared and discussed: distributed wavelength conversion and localized wavelength conversion. It is found that the distributed wavelength conversion scheme outperforms localized wavelength conversion scheme, both with uniform loading and in terms of the network tolerance. The results described in this thesis can be used for the analysis and design of reliable WDM optical networks that are robust to future traffic demand variations

Methodologies for the analysis of value from delay-tolerant inter-satellite networking

In a world that is becoming increasingly connected, both in the sense of people and devices, it is of no surprise that users of the data enabled by satellites are exploring the potential brought about from a more connected Earth orbit environment. Lower data latency, higher revisit rates and higher volumes of information are the order of the day, and inter-connectivity is one of the ways in which this could be achieved. Within this dissertation, three main topics are investigated and built upon. First, the process of routing data through intermittently connected delay-tolerant networks is examined and a new routing protocol introduced, called Spae. The consideration of downstream resource limitations forms the heart of this novel approach which is shown to provide improvements in data routing that closely match that of a theoretically optimal scheme. Next, the value of inter-satellite networking is derived in such a way that removes the difficult task of costing the enabling inter-satellite link technology. Instead, value is defined as the price one should be willing to pay for the technology while retaining a mission value greater than its non-networking counterpart. This is achieved through the use of multi-attribute utility theory, trade-space analysis and system modelling, and demonstrated in two case studies. Finally, the effects of uncertainty in the form of sub-system failure are considered. Inter-satellite networking is shown to increase a system's resilience to failure through introduction of additional, partially failed states, made possible by data relay. The lifetime value of a system is then captured using a semi-analytical approach exploiting Markov chains, validated with a numerical Monte Carlo simulation approach. It is evident that while inter-satellite networking may offer more value in general, it does not necessarily result in a decrease in the loss of utility over the lifetime.In a world that is becoming increasingly connected, both in the sense of people and devices, it is of no surprise that users of the data enabled by satellites are exploring the potential brought about from a more connected Earth orbit environment. Lower data latency, higher revisit rates and higher volumes of information are the order of the day, and inter-connectivity is one of the ways in which this could be achieved. Within this dissertation, three main topics are investigated and built upon. First, the process of routing data through intermittently connected delay-tolerant networks is examined and a new routing protocol introduced, called Spae. The consideration of downstream resource limitations forms the heart of this novel approach which is shown to provide improvements in data routing that closely match that of a theoretically optimal scheme. Next, the value of inter-satellite networking is derived in such a way that removes the difficult task of costing the enabling inter-satellite link technology. Instead, value is defined as the price one should be willing to pay for the technology while retaining a mission value greater than its non-networking counterpart. This is achieved through the use of multi-attribute utility theory, trade-space analysis and system modelling, and demonstrated in two case studies. Finally, the effects of uncertainty in the form of sub-system failure are considered. Inter-satellite networking is shown to increase a system's resilience to failure through introduction of additional, partially failed states, made possible by data relay. The lifetime value of a system is then captured using a semi-analytical approach exploiting Markov chains, validated with a numerical Monte Carlo simulation approach. It is evident that while inter-satellite networking may offer more value in general, it does not necessarily result in a decrease in the loss of utility over the lifetime