39,950 research outputs found

    Sequential Bayesian inference for static parameters in dynamic state space models

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    A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters (or hyper-parameters), so that in principle the posterior can be computed and stored on a discrete grid of practical size which can be tracked dynamically. Further to this, this approach is able to use any existing methodology which computes the filtering and prediction distributions of the state process. Kalman filter and its extensions to non-linear/non-Gaussian situations have been used in this paper. This is illustrated using several applications: linear Gaussian model, Binomial model, stochastic volatility model and the extremely non-linear univariate non-stationary growth model. Performance has been compared to both existing on-line method and off-line methods

    Stable Recovery Of Sparse Vectors From Random Sinusoidal Feature Maps

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    Random sinusoidal features are a popular approach for speeding up kernel-based inference in large datasets. Prior to the inference stage, the approach suggests performing dimensionality reduction by first multiplying each data vector by a random Gaussian matrix, and then computing an element-wise sinusoid. Theoretical analysis shows that collecting a sufficient number of such features can be reliably used for subsequent inference in kernel classification and regression. In this work, we demonstrate that with a mild increase in the dimension of the embedding, it is also possible to reconstruct the data vector from such random sinusoidal features, provided that the underlying data is sparse enough. In particular, we propose a numerically stable algorithm for reconstructing the data vector given the nonlinear features, and analyze its sample complexity. Our algorithm can be extended to other types of structured inverse problems, such as demixing a pair of sparse (but incoherent) vectors. We support the efficacy of our approach via numerical experiments

    Ecological non-linear state space model selection via adaptive particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (AdPMCMC)

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    We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models, including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated with these models. Utilising real and also synthetically generated data sets we examine the extent to which observation noise and process error may frustrate efforts to choose between these models. Our novel algorithm involves an Adaptive Metropolis proposal combined with an SIR Particle MCMC algorithm (AdPMCMC). We show that the AdPMCMC algorithm samples complex, high-dimensional spaces efficiently, and is therefore superior to standard Gibbs or Metropolis Hastings algorithms that are known to converge very slowly when applied to the non-linear state space ecological models considered in this paper. Additionally, we show how the AdPMCMC algorithm can be used to recursively estimate the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao Lower Bound of Tichavsk\'y (1998). We derive expressions for these Cram\'er-Rao Bounds and estimate them for the models considered. Our results demonstrate a number of important features of common population growth models, most notably their multi-modal posterior surfaces and dependence between the static and dynamic parameters. We conclude by sampling from the posterior distribution of each of the models, and use Bayes factors to highlight how observation noise significantly diminishes our ability to select among some of the models, particularly those that are designed to reproduce an Allee effect
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