Flood susceptibility assessment using artificial neural networks in Indonesia

Flood incidents can massively damage and disrupt a city economic or governing core. However, flood risk can be mitigated through event planning and city-wide preparation to reduce damage. For, governments, firms, and civilians to make such preparations, flood susceptibility predictions are required. To predict flood susceptibility nine environmental related factors have been identified. They are elevation, slope, curvature, topographical wetness index (TWI), Euclidean distance from a river, land-cover, stream power index (SPI), soil type and precipitation. This work will use these environmental related factors alongside Sentinel-1 satellite imagery in a model intercomparison study to back-predict flood susceptibility in Jakarta for the January 2020 historic flood event across 260 key locations. For each location, this study uses current environmental conditions to predict flood status in the following month. Considering the imbalance between instances of flooded and non-flooded conditions, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) has been implemented to balance both classes in the training set. This work compares predictions from artificial neural networks (ANN), k-Nearest Neighbors algorithms (k-NN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) against a random baseline. The effects of the SMOTE are also assessed by training each model on balanced and imbalanced datasets. The ANN is found to be superior to the other machine learning models

Machine Learning Framework to Identify Individuals at Risk of Rapid Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis: From the PARADIGM Registry.

Background Rapid coronary plaque progression (RPP) is associated with incident cardiovascular events. To date, no method exists for the identification of individuals at risk of RPP at a single point in time. This study integrated coronary computed tomography angiography-determined qualitative and quantitative plaque features within a machine learning (ML) framework to determine its performance for predicting RPP. Methods and Results Qualitative and quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography plaque characterization was performed in 1083 patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography from the PARADIGM (Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging) registry. RPP was defined as an annual progression of percentage atheroma volume ≥1.0%. We employed the following ML models: model 1, clinical variables; model 2, model 1 plus qualitative plaque features; model 3, model 2 plus quantitative plaque features. ML models were compared with the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, Duke coronary artery disease score, and a logistic regression statistical model. 224 patients (21%) were identified as RPP. Feature selection in ML identifies that quantitative computed tomography variables were higher-ranking features, followed by qualitative computed tomography variables and clinical/laboratory variables. ML model 3 exhibited the highest discriminatory performance to identify individuals who would experience RPP when compared with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, the other ML models, and the statistical model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in ML model 3, 0.83 [95% CI 0.78-0.89], versus atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, 0.60 [0.52-0.67]; Duke coronary artery disease score, 0.74 [0.68-0.79]; ML model 1, 0.62 [0.55-0.69]; ML model 2, 0.73 [0.67-0.80]; all P<0.001; statistical model, 0.81 [0.75-0.87], P=0.128). Conclusions Based on a ML framework, quantitative atherosclerosis characterization has been shown to be the most important feature when compared with clinical, laboratory, and qualitative measures in identifying patients at risk of RPP

Predicting Pancreatic Cancer Using Support Vector Machine

This report presents an approach to predict pancreatic cancer using Support Vector Machine Classification algorithm. The research objective of this project it to predict pancreatic cancer on just genomic, just clinical and combination of genomic and clinical data. We have used real genomic data having 22,763 samples and 154 features per sample. We have also created Synthetic Clinical data having 400 samples and 7 features per sample in order to predict accuracy of just clinical data. To validate the hypothesis, we have combined synthetic clinical data with subset of features from real genomic data. In our results, we observed that prediction accuracy, precision, recall with just genomic data is 80.77%, 20%, 4%. Prediction accuracy, precision, recall with just synthetic clinical data is 93.33%, 95%, 30%. While prediction accuracy, precision, recall for combination of real genomic and synthetic clinical data is 90.83%, 10%, 5%. The combination of real genomic and synthetic clinical data decreased the accuracy since the genomic data is weakly correlated. Thus we conclude that the combination of genomic and clinical data does not improve pancreatic cancer prediction accuracy. A dataset with more significant genomic features might help to predict pancreatic cancer more accurately

Psychological and sociodemographic correlates of communicative anxiety in L2 and L3 production

This paper analyses foreign language anxiety in the French L2 and English L3 speech production of 100 Flemish students. The findings suggest that foreign language anxiety is not a stable personality trait among experienced language learners. The societal as well as the individual contexts were found to determine levels of communicative anxiety. The perception of French as the former prestige language in Flanders and its function as a social marker was found to be linked to the participants' social class, which was, in turn, linked to levels of anxiety in French - but not in English. This social effect appeared to be a stronger predictor of communicative anxiety in French than three personality variables (extraversion, neuroticism, and psychoticism). Psychoticism, extraversion, and, to a lesser extent, neuroticism did however significantly predict levels of communicative anxiety in English L3 production. Students who scored high on the extraversion and psychoticism scales reported significant lower levels of communicative anxiety in English. Those who scored low on the neuroticism scale also tended to report lower levels of communicative anxiety in English. The same pattern emerged for communicative anxiety in French without reaching statistical significance

Personalized Pancreatic Tumor Growth Prediction via Group Learning

Tumor growth prediction, a highly challenging task, has long been viewed as a mathematical modeling problem, where the tumor growth pattern is personalized based on imaging and clinical data of a target patient. Though mathematical models yield promising results, their prediction accuracy may be limited by the absence of population trend data and personalized clinical characteristics. In this paper, we propose a statistical group learning approach to predict the tumor growth pattern that incorporates both the population trend and personalized data, in order to discover high-level features from multimodal imaging data. A deep convolutional neural network approach is developed to model the voxel-wise spatio-temporal tumor progression. The deep features are combined with the time intervals and the clinical factors to feed a process of feature selection. Our predictive model is pretrained on a group data set and personalized on the target patient data to estimate the future spatio-temporal progression of the patient's tumor. Multimodal imaging data at multiple time points are used in the learning, personalization and inference stages. Our method achieves a Dice coefficient of 86.8% +- 3.6% and RVD of 7.9% +- 5.4% on a pancreatic tumor data set, outperforming the DSC of 84.4% +- 4.0% and RVD 13.9% +- 9.8% obtained by a previous state-of-the-art model-based method

Prediction of progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using CT scans atbaseline: A quantum particle swarm optimization - Random forest approach

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a fatal lung disease characterized by an unpredictable progressive declinein lung function. Natural history of IPF is unknown and the prediction of disease progression at the time ofdiagnosis is notoriously difficult. High resolution computed tomography (HRCT) has been used for the diagnosisof IPF, but not generally for monitoring purpose. The objective of this work is to develop a novel predictivemodel for the radiological progression pattern at voxel-wise level using only baseline HRCT scans. Mainly, thereare two challenges: (a) obtaining a data set of features for region of interest (ROI) on baseline HRCT scans andtheir follow-up status; and (b) simultaneously selecting important features from high-dimensional space, andoptimizing the prediction performance. We resolved the first challenge by implementing a study design andhaving an expert radiologist contour ROIs at baseline scans, depending on its progression status in follow-upvisits. For the second challenge, we integrated the feature selection with prediction by developing an algorithmusing a wrapper method that combines quantum particle swarm optimization to select a small number of featureswith random forest to classify early patterns of progression. We applied our proposed algorithm to analyzeanonymized HRCT images from 50 IPF subjects from a multi-center clinical trial. We showed that it yields aparsimonious model with 81.8% sensitivity, 82.2% specificity and an overall accuracy rate of 82.1% at the ROIlevel. These results are superior to other popular feature selections and classification methods, in that ourmethod produces higher accuracy in prediction of progression and more balanced sensitivity and specificity witha smaller number of selected features. Our work is the first approach to show that it is possible to use onlybaseline HRCT scans to predict progressive ROIs at 6 months to 1year follow-ups using artificial intelligence

Negative Link Prediction in Social Media

Signed network analysis has attracted increasing attention in recent years. This is in part because research on signed network analysis suggests that negative links have added value in the analytical process. A major impediment in their effective use is that most social media sites do not enable users to specify them explicitly. In other words, a gap exists between the importance of negative links and their availability in real data sets. Therefore, it is natural to explore whether one can predict negative links automatically from the commonly available social network data. In this paper, we investigate the novel problem of negative link prediction with only positive links and content-centric interactions in social media. We make a number of important observations about negative links, and propose a principled framework NeLP, which can exploit positive links and content-centric interactions to predict negative links. Our experimental results on real-world social networks demonstrate that the proposed NeLP framework can accurately predict negative links with positive links and content-centric interactions. Our detailed experiments also illustrate the relative importance of various factors to the effectiveness of the proposed framework

Perceptions and predictions of expertise in advanced musical learners

The aim of this article was to compare musicians' views on (a) the importance of musical skills and (b) the nature of expertise. Data were obtained from a specially devised web-based questionnaire completed by advanced musicians representing four musical genres (classical, popular, jazz, Scottish traditional) and varying degrees of professional musical experience (tertiary education music students, portfolio career musicians). Comparisons were made across musical genres (classical vs. other-than-classical), gender, age and professional status (student musicians vs. portfolio career musicians). Musicians' 'ideal' versus 'perceived' levels of musical skills and expertise were also compared and factors predicting musicians' self-reported level of skills and expertise were investigated. Findings suggest that the perception of expertise in advanced musical learners is a complex phenomenon that relates to each of four key variables (gender, age, musical genre and professional experience). The study also shows that discrepancies between advanced musicians' ideal and self-assessed levels of musical skills and expertise are closely related to gender and professional experience. Finally, characteristics that predict and account for variability in musicians' views and attitudes regarding musical expertise and self-assessments of personal expertise levels are highlighted. Results are viewed in the context of music learning and implications for music education are discussed

Inside the brain of an elite athlete: The neural processes that support high achievement in sports

Events like the World Championships in athletics and the Olympic Games raise the public profile of competitive sports. They may also leave us wondering what sets the competitors in these events apart from those of us who simply watch. Here we attempt to link neural and cognitive processes that have been found to be important for elite performance with computational and physiological theories inspired by much simpler laboratory tasks. In this way we hope to inspire neuroscientists to consider how their basic research might help to explain sporting skill at the highest levels of performance