Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic simulations under an array of multiple inputs from different sources. Uncertainty is associated with meteorological forecast and calibration of the model parameters. Software uncertainty also derives from the data transformation models (D-TM) needed for predicting hazard behaviour and its consequences. On the other hand, social contributions have recently been recognized as valuable in raw-data collection and mapping efforts traditionally dominated by professional organizations. Here an architecture overview is proposed for adaptive and robust modelling of natural hazards, following the Semantic Array Programming paradigm to also include the distributed array of social contributors called Citizen Sensor in a semantically-enhanced strategy for D-TM modelling. The modelling architecture proposes a multicriteria approach for assessing the array of potential impacts with qualitative rapid assessment methods based on a Partial Open Loop Feedback Control (POLFC) schema and complementing more traditional and accurate a-posteriori assessment. We discuss the computational aspect of environmental risk modelling using array-based parallel paradigms on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, in order for the implications of urgency to be introduced into the systems (Urgent-HPC).Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, 1 text box, presented at the 3rd Conference of Computational Interdisciplinary Sciences (CCIS 2014), Asuncion, Paragua

PICES Press, Vol. 18, No. 1, Winter 2010

•Major Outcomes from the 2009 PICES Annual Meeting: A Note from the Chairman (pp. 1-3, 8) •PICES Science – 2009 (pp. 4-8) •2009 PICES Awards (pp. 9-10) •New Chairmen in PICES (pp. 11-15) •PICES Interns (p. 15) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2009 (pp. 16-17, 27) •The State of the Northeast Pacific in 2009 (pp. 18-19) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 20-21) •2009 PICES Summer School on “Satellite Oceanography for the Earth Environment” (pp. 22-25) •2009 International Conference on “Marine Bioinvasions” (pp. 26-27) •A New PICES Working Group Holds Workshop and Meeting in Jeju Island (pp. 28-29) •The Second Marine Ecosystem Model Inter-comparison Workshop (pp. 30-32) •ICES/PICES/UNCOVER Symposium on “Rebuilding Depleted Fish Stocks – Biology, Ecology, Social Science and Management Strategies” (pp. 33-35) •2009 North Pacific Synthesis Workshop (pp. 36-37) •2009 PICES Rapid Assessment Survey (pp. 38-40

Argument Strength is in the Eye of the Beholder: Audience Effects in Persuasion

Americans spend about a third of their time online, with many participating in online conversations on social and political issues. We hypothesize that social media arguments on such issues may be more engaging and persuasive than traditional media summaries, and that particular types of people may be more or less convinced by particular styles of argument, e.g. emotional arguments may resonate with some personalities while factual arguments resonate with others. We report a set of experiments testing at large scale how audience variables interact with argument style to affect the persuasiveness of an argument, an under-researched topic within natural language processing. We show that belief change is affected by personality factors, with conscientious, open and agreeable people being more convinced by emotional arguments.Comment: European Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics (EACL 2017

Rationale in Development Chat Messages: An Exploratory Study

Chat messages of development teams play an increasingly significant role in software development, having replaced emails in some cases. Chat messages contain information about discussed issues, considered alternatives and argumentation leading to the decisions made during software development. These elements, defined as rationale, are invaluable during software evolution for documenting and reusing development knowledge. Rationale is also essential for coping with changes and for effective maintenance of the software system. However, exploiting the rationale hidden in the chat messages is challenging due to the high volume of unstructured messages covering a wide range of topics. This work presents the results of an exploratory study examining the frequency of rationale in chat messages, the completeness of the available rationale and the potential of automatic techniques for rationale extraction. For this purpose, we apply content analysis and machine learning techniques on more than 8,700 chat messages from three software development projects. Our results show that chat messages are a rich source of rationale and that machine learning is a promising technique for detecting rationale and identifying different rationale elements.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. The 14th International Conference on Mining Software Repositories (MSR'17

An adaptive trust based service quality monitoring mechanism for cloud computing

Cloud computing is the newest paradigm in distributed computing that delivers computing resources over the Internet as services. Due to the attractiveness of cloud computing, the market is currently flooded with many service providers. This has necessitated the customers to identify the right one meeting their requirements in terms of service quality. The existing monitoring of service quality has been limited only to quantification in cloud computing. On the other hand, the continuous improvement and distribution of service quality scores have been implemented in other distributed computing paradigms but not specifically for cloud computing. This research investigates the methods and proposes mechanisms for quantifying and ranking the service quality of service providers. The solution proposed in this thesis consists of three mechanisms, namely service quality modeling mechanism, adaptive trust computing mechanism and trust distribution mechanism for cloud computing. The Design Research Methodology (DRM) has been modified by adding phases, means and methods, and probable outcomes. This modified DRM is used throughout this study. The mechanisms were developed and tested gradually until the expected outcome has been achieved. A comprehensive set of experiments were carried out in a simulated environment to validate their effectiveness. The evaluation has been carried out by comparing their performance against the combined trust model and QoS trust model for cloud computing along with the adapted fuzzy theory based trust computing mechanism and super-agent based trust distribution mechanism, which were developed for other distributed systems. The results show that the mechanisms are faster and more stable than the existing solutions in terms of reaching the final trust scores on all three parameters tested. The results presented in this thesis are significant in terms of making cloud computing acceptable to users in verifying the performance of the service providers before making the selection

Hybrid ant colony system algorithm for static and dynamic job scheduling in grid computing

Grid computing is a distributed system with heterogeneous infrastructures. Resource management system (RMS) is one of the most important components which has great influence on the grid computing performance. The main part of RMS is the scheduler algorithm which has the responsibility to map submitted tasks to available resources. The complexity of scheduling problem is considered as a nondeterministic polynomial complete (NP-complete) problem and therefore, an intelligent algorithm is required to achieve better scheduling solution. One of the prominent intelligent algorithms is ant colony system (ACS) which is implemented widely to solve various types of scheduling problems. However, ACS suffers from stagnation problem in medium and large size grid computing system. ACS is based on exploitation and exploration mechanisms where the exploitation is sufficient but the exploration has a deficiency. The exploration in ACS is based on a random approach without any strategy. This study proposed four hybrid algorithms between ACS, Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Tabu Search (TS) algorithms to enhance the ACS performance. The algorithms are ACS(GA), ACS+GA, ACS(TS), and ACS+TS. These proposed hybrid algorithms will enhance ACS in terms of exploration mechanism and solution refinement by implementing low and high levels hybridization of ACS, GA, and TS algorithms. The proposed algorithms were evaluated against twelve metaheuristic algorithms in static (expected time to compute model) and dynamic (distribution pattern) grid computing environments. A simulator called ExSim was developed to mimic the static and dynamic nature of the grid computing. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithms outperform ACS in terms of best makespan values. Performance of ACS(GA), ACS+GA, ACS(TS), and ACS+TS are better than ACS by 0.35%, 2.03%, 4.65% and 6.99% respectively for static environment. For dynamic environment, performance of ACS(GA), ACS+GA, ACS+TS, and ACS(TS) are better than ACS by 0.01%, 0.56%, 1.16%, and 1.26% respectively. The proposed algorithms can be used to schedule tasks in grid computing with better performance in terms of makespan