3,728 research outputs found

    Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching

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    Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.Comment: Accepted for oral presentation at 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2019

    Implications of Z-normalization in the matrix profile

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    Companies are increasingly measuring their products and services, resulting in a rising amount of available time series data, making techniques to extract usable information needed. One state-of-the-art technique for time series is the Matrix Profile, which has been used for various applications including motif/discord discovery, visualizations and semantic segmentation. Internally, the Matrix Profile utilizes the z-normalized Euclidean distance to compare the shape of subsequences between two series. However, when comparing subsequences that are relatively flat and contain noise, the resulting distance is high despite the visual similarity of these subsequences. This property violates some of the assumptions made by Matrix Profile based techniques, resulting in worse performance when series contain flat and noisy subsequences. By studying the properties of the z-normalized Euclidean distance, we derived a method to eliminate this effect requiring only an estimate of the standard deviation of the noise. In this paper we describe various practical properties of the z-normalized Euclidean distance and show how these can be used to correct the performance of Matrix Profile related techniques. We demonstrate our techniques using anomaly detection using a Yahoo! Webscope anomaly dataset, semantic segmentation on the PAMAP2 activity dataset and for data visualization on a UCI activity dataset, all containing real-world data, and obtain overall better results after applying our technique. Our technique is a straightforward extension of the distance calculation in the Matrix Profile and will benefit any derived technique dealing with time series containing flat and noisy subsequences

    On Critical Relative Distance of DNA Codes for Additive Stem Similarity

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    We consider DNA codes based on the nearest-neighbor (stem) similarity model which adequately reflects the "hybridization potential" of two DNA sequences. Our aim is to present a survey of bounds on the rate of DNA codes with respect to a thermodynamically motivated similarity measure called an additive stem similarity. These results yield a method to analyze and compare known samples of the nearest neighbor "thermodynamic weights" associated to stacked pairs that occurred in DNA secondary structures.Comment: 5 or 6 pages (compiler-dependable), 0 figures, submitted to 2010 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT 2010), uses IEEEtran.cl

    Learning Character Strings via Mastermind Queries, with a Case Study Involving mtDNA

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    We study the degree to which a character string, QQ, leaks details about itself any time it engages in comparison protocols with a strings provided by a querier, Bob, even if those protocols are cryptographically guaranteed to produce no additional information other than the scores that assess the degree to which QQ matches strings offered by Bob. We show that such scenarios allow Bob to play variants of the game of Mastermind with QQ so as to learn the complete identity of QQ. We show that there are a number of efficient implementations for Bob to employ in these Mastermind attacks, depending on knowledge he has about the structure of QQ, which show how quickly he can determine QQ. Indeed, we show that Bob can discover QQ using a number of rounds of test comparisons that is much smaller than the length of QQ, under reasonable assumptions regarding the types of scores that are returned by the cryptographic protocols and whether he can use knowledge about the distribution that QQ comes from. We also provide the results of a case study we performed on a database of mitochondrial DNA, showing the vulnerability of existing real-world DNA data to the Mastermind attack.Comment: Full version of related paper appearing in IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy 2009, "The Mastermind Attack on Genomic Data." This version corrects the proofs of what are now Theorems 2 and 4
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