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The Open Research Web: A Preview of the Optimal and the Inevitable
The multiple online research impact metrics we are developing will allow the rich new database , the Research Web, to be navigated, analyzed, mined and evaluated in powerful new ways that were not even conceivable in the paper era – nor even in the online era, until the database and the tools became openly accessible for online use by all: by researchers, research institutions, research funders, teachers, students, and even by the general public that funds the research and for whose benefit it is being conducted: Which research is being used most? By whom? Which research is growing most quickly? In what direction? under whose influence? Which research is showing immediate short-term usefulness, which shows delayed, longer term usefulness, and which has sustained long-lasting impact? Which research and researchers are the most authoritative? Whose research is most using this authoritative research, and whose research is the authoritative research using? Which are the best pointers (“hubs”) to the authoritative research? Is there any way to predict what research will have later citation impact (based on its earlier download impact), so junior researchers can be given resources before their work has had a chance to make itself felt through citations? Can research trends and directions be predicted from the online database? Can text content be used to find and compare related research, for influence, overlap, direction? Can a layman, unfamiliar with the specialized content of a field, be guided to the most relevant and important work? These are just a sample of the new online-age questions that the Open Research Web will begin to answer
The weakening relationship between the Impact Factor and papers' citations in the digital age
Historically, papers have been physically bound to the journal in which they
were published but in the electronic age papers are available individually, no
longer tied to their respective journals. Hence, papers now can be read and
cited based on their own merits, independently of the journal's physical
availability, reputation, or Impact Factor. We compare the strength of the
relationship between journals' Impact Factors and the actual citations received
by their respective papers from 1902 to 2009. Throughout most of the 20th
century, papers' citation rates were increasingly linked to their respective
journals' Impact Factors. However, since 1990, the advent of the digital age,
the strength of the relation between Impact Factors and paper citations has
been decreasing. This decrease began sooner in physics, a field that was
quicker to make the transition into the electronic domain. Furthermore, since
1990, the proportion of highly cited papers coming from highly cited journals
has been decreasing, and accordingly, the proportion of highly cited papers not
coming from highly cited journals has also been increasing. Should this pattern
continue, it might bring an end to the use of the Impact Factor as a way to
evaluate the quality of journals, papers and researchers.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure
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