Optimal interpolation of satellite and ground data for irradiance nowcasting at city scales

We use a Bayesian method, optimal interpolation, to improve satellite derived irradiance estimates at city-scales using ground sensor data. Optimal interpolation requires error covariances in the satellite estimates and ground data, which define how information from the sensor locations is distributed across a large area. We describe three methods to choose such covariances, including a covariance parameterization that depends on the relative cloudiness between locations. Results are computed with ground data from 22 sensors over a 75×80 km area centered on Tucson, AZ, using two satellite derived irradiance models. The improvements in standard error metrics for both satellite models indicate that our approach is applicable to additional satellite derived irradiance models. We also show that optimal interpolation can nearly eliminate mean bias error and improve the root mean squared error by 50%

Experience With Bayesian Image Based Surface Modeling

Bayesian surface modeling from images requires modeling both the surface and the image generation process, in order to optimize the models by comparing actual and generated images. Thus it differs greatly, both conceptually and in computational difficulty, from conventional stereo surface recovery techniques. But it offers the possibility of using any number of images, taken under quite different conditions, and by different instruments that provide independent and often complementary information, to generate a single surface model that fuses all available information. I describe an implemented system, with a brief introduction to the underlying mathematical models and the compromises made for computational efficiency. I describe successes and failures achieved on actual imagery, where we went wrong and what we did right, and how our approach could be improved. Lastly I discuss how the same approach can be extended to distinct types of instruments, to achieve true sensor fusion

Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

[Abridged] We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously-measured day-side spectral energy distribution, is indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micron, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micron, but our parameter uncertainties -estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo- keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micron, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micron ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best fit 4.5 micron transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micron depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a Solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 micron eclipse depth, consistent with a Solar composition and modest temperature inversion. We suggest future observations that could distinguish between these two scenarios.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, ApJ in press. Improved discussion of gravity brightenin

HST Scattered Light Imaging and Modeling of the Edge-on Protoplanetary Disk ESO-Hα\alpha 569

We present new HST ACS observations and detailed models for a recently discovered edge-on protoplanetary disk around ESO H$\alpha$ 569 (a low-mass T Tauri star in the Cha I star forming region). Using radiative transfer models we probe the distribution of the grains and overall shape of the disk (inclination, scale height, dust mass, flaring exponent and surface/volume density exponent) by model fitting to multiwavelength (F606W and F814W) HST observations together with a literature compiled spectral energy distribution. A new tool set was developed for finding optimal fits of MCFOST radiative transfer models using the MCMC code emcee to efficiently explore the high dimensional parameter space. It is able to self-consistently and simultaneously fit a wide variety of observables in order to place constraints on the physical properties of a given disk, while also rigorously assessing the uncertainties in those derived properties. We confirm that ESO H$\alpha$ 569 is an optically thick nearly edge-on protoplanetary disk. The shape of the disk is well described by a flared disk model with an exponentially tapered outer edge, consistent with models previously advocated on theoretical grounds and supported by millimeter interferometry. The scattered light images and spectral energy distribution are best fit by an unusually high total disk mass (gas+dust assuming a ratio of 100:1) with a disk-to-star mass ratio of 0.16.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

The Dark World:A Tale of WASP-43b in Reflected Light with HST WFC3/UVIS

Optical, reflected light eclipse observations provide a direct probe of the exoplanet scattering properties, such as from aerosols. We present here the photometric, reflected light observations of WASP-43b using the HST WFC3/UVIS instrument with the F350LP filter (346-822nm) encompassing the entire optical band. This is the first reflected light, photometric eclipse using UVIS in scanning mode; as such we further detail our scanning extraction and analysis pipeline Arctor. Our HST WFC3/UVIS eclipse light curve for WASP-43 b derived a 3-{\sigma} upper limit of 67 ppm on the eclipse depth, which implies that WASP-43b has a very dark dayside atmosphere. With our atmospheric modeling campaign, we compared our reflected light constraints with predictions from global circulation and cloud models, benchmarked with HST and Spitzer observations of WASP-43b. We infer that we do not detect clouds on the dayside within the pressure levels probed by HST WFC3/UVIS with the F350LP filter (P > 1 bar). This is consistent with the GCM predictions based on previous WASP-43b observations. Dayside emission spectroscopy results from WASP-43b with HST and Spitzer observations are likely to not be significantly affected by contributions from cloud particles.Comment: 29 pages, 22 figures, accepted to AAS/Ap

Satellite-based Cloud Remote Sensing: Fast Radiative Transfer Modeling and Inter-Comparison of Single-/Multi-Layer Cloud Retrievals with VIIRS

This dissertation consists of three parts, each of them, progressively, contributing to the problem of great importance that satellite-based remote sensing of clouds. In the first section, we develop a fast radiative transfer model specialized for Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), based on the band-average technique. VIIRS, is a passive sensor flying aboard the NOAA’s Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft. This model successfully simulates VIIRS solar and infrared bands, in both moderate (M-bands) and imagery (I-bands) spatial resolutions. Besides, the model is two orders of magnitude faster than Line-by-line & discrete ordinate transfer (DISORT) method with a great accuracy. The second and third parts are going to investigate the retrieval of single-/multi- layer cloud optical properties, especially, cloud optical thickness (τ) and cloud effective particle size (De) with different methods. By presenting the comparison between results derived from VIIRS measurements and benchmark products, potential applications of Bayesian and OE retrieval methods for cloud property retrieval are discussed. It has proved that Bayesian method is more suitable for single-layer scenarios with fewer variables with fast speed, while Optimal Estimation method is superior to Bayesian method for more complicated multi-layer scenarios

A featureless transmission spectrum for the Neptune-mass exoplanet GJ 436b

GJ 436b is a warm—approximately 800 kelvin—exoplanet that periodically eclipses its low-mass (half the mass of the Sun) host star, and is one of the few Neptune-mass planets that is amenable to detailed characterization. Previous observations have indicated that its atmosphere has a ratio of methane to carbon monoxide that is 10^5 times smaller than predicted by models for hydrogen-dominated atmospheres at these temperatures. A recent study proposed that this unusual chemistry could be explained if the planet’s atmosphere is significantly enhanced in elements heavier than hydrogen and helium. Here we report observations of GJ 436b’s atmosphere obtained during transit. The data indicate that the planet’s transmission spectrum is featureless, ruling out cloud-free, hydrogen-dominated atmosphere models with an extremely high significance of 48σ. The measured spectrum is consistent with either a layer of high cloud located at a pressure level of approximately one millibar or with a relatively hydrogen-poor (three per cent hydrogen and helium mass fraction) atmospheric composition