Study on the Calculation Models of Bus Delay at Bays Using Queueing Theory and Markov Chain

Traffic congestion at bus bays has decreased the service efficiency of public transit seriously in China, so it is crucial to systematically study its theory and methods. However, the existing studies lack theoretical model on computing efficiency. Therefore, the calculation models of bus delay at bays are studied. Firstly, the process that buses are delayed at bays is analyzed, and it was found that the delay can be divided into entering delay and exiting delay. Secondly, the queueing models of bus bays are formed, and the equilibrium distribution functions are proposed by applying the embedded Markov chain to the traditional model of queuing theory in the steady state; then the calculation models of entering delay are derived at bays. Thirdly, the exiting delay is studied by using the queueing theory and the gap acceptance theory. Finally, the proposed models are validated using field-measured data, and then the influencing factors are discussed. With these models the delay is easily assessed knowing the characteristics of the dwell time distribution and traffic volume at the curb lane in different locations and different periods. It can provide basis for the efficiency evaluation of bus bays. Document type: Articl

Modeling Capacity and Delay at Signalized Intersections with Channelized Right-turn Lanes Considering the Impact of Blockage

Right-turn channelization is used to improve the capacity at busy intersections with a lot of right-turns. However, under heavy traffic conditions the through lane vehicles might backup and block the right-turn lane. This will affect the discharge rate of right-turning vehicles and reduce the approach capacity and, consequently, increase the approach delay. So if the right-turn channelization is blocked frequently, its advantage is neglected and serious capacity problems can be overlooked. This issue is not addressed in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) and no separate model is provided to estimate the capacity and delay of approaches with channelized right-turn lanes. Using conventional methods for estimating the capacity and delay without considering the effect of potential blockage results in overestimation of the approach capacity and underestimation of the approach delay. This research presents probabilistic capacity and delay models for signalized intersections with channelized right-turn lanes considering the possibility of the right-turning vehicles being blocked from accessing the lane.The capacity model was developed by considering the capacity under blockage and non-blockage conditions with respect to the probability of blockage. Subsequently, a model was developed to estimate the probability of blockage. The capacity model is significantly affected by the length of the short-lane section and proportion of right-turn traffic. The proposed capacity model under blockage conditions and also the blockage probability model were validated through VISSIM, a microscopic simulation model. The validation process showed that both models are reliable. For operational purposes, the recommended lengths of the short-lane section were developed which would be useful in evaluating adequacy of the current lengths, identifying the options of extending the short-lane section length, or changing signal timing to reduce the likelihood of blockage. The recommended lengths were developed based on different signal timing plans and several proportions of right-turn traffic. The queue accumulation polygons (QAPs) were used to estimate the approach uniform delay and the HCM procedure was followed for the computation of the incremental delay caused by the random fluctuation of vehicle arrivals. To investigate the effect of blockage on the uniform delay, two different QAPs were developed associated with arrival scenarios under blockage and non-blockage conditions. The proposed delay model was also validated through VISSIM. It was found that, the proposed model can provide accurate estimates of the delay by reflecting the delay increase due to the right-turn channelization blockage. The results showed that the delay of an approach with a channelized right-turn is influenced by the length of the short-lane section and proportion of through and right-turn traffic

Modelling and optimisation of resource usage in an IoT enabled smart campus

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilized efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organizations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory. The building blocks of this thesis consist of three pillars of execution, namely, IoT deployment, predictive modelling, and optimization. Together, these components create an end-to-end framework that provides informed decisions to estate manager in regards to the optimal allocation of campus resources. The main contributions of this thesis are three application domains, which lies on top of the execution pillars, defining campus resources as classrooms, car parks, and transit buses. Specifically, our contributions are: i) We evaluate several IoT occupancy sensing technologies and instrument 9 lecture halls of varying capacities with the most appropriate sensing solution. The collected data provides us with insights into attendance patterns, such as cancelled lectures and class tests, of over 250 courses. We then develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms and quantile regression technique to predict future attendance patterns. Finally, we propose an intelligent optimisation model that allows allocations of classes to rooms based on the dynamics of predicted attendance as opposed to static enrolment number. We show that the data-driven assignment of classroom resources can achieve a potential saving in room cost of over 10\% over the course of a semester, while incurring a very low risk of disrupting student experience due to classroom overflow; ii) We instrument a car park with IoT sensors for real-time monitoring of parking demand and comprehensively analyse the usage data spanning over 15 months. We then develop machine learning models to forecast future parking demand at multiple forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 10 weeks, our models achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.58 cars per hour. Finally, we propose a novel optimal allocation framework that allows campus manager to re-dimension the car park to accommodate new paradigms of car use while minimizing the risk of rejecting users and maintaining a certain level of revenue from the parking infrastructure; iii) We develop sensing technology for measuring an outdoor orderly queue using ultrasonic sensor and LoRaWAN, and deploy the solution at an on campus bus stop. Our solution yields a reasonable accuracy with MAE of 10.7 people for detecting a queue length of up to 100 people. We then develop an optimisation model to reschedule bus dispatch times based on the actual dynamics of passenger demand. The result suggests that a potential wait time reduction of 42.93% can be achieved with demand-driven bus scheduling. Taken together, our contributions demonstrates that there are significant resource efficiency gains to be realised in a smart-campus that employs IoT sensing coupled with predictive modelling and dynamic optimisation algorithms

Modelling and optimisation of resource usage in an IoT enabled smart campus

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilized efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organizations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory. The building blocks of this thesis consist of three pillars of execution, namely, IoT deployment, predictive modelling, and optimization. Together, these components create an end-to-end framework that provides informed decisions to estate manager in regards to the optimal allocation of campus resources. The main contributions of this thesis are three application domains, which lies on top of the execution pillars, defining campus resources as classrooms, car parks, and transit buses. Specifically, our contributions are: i) We evaluate several IoT occupancy sensing technologies and instrument 9 lecture halls of varying capacities with the most appropriate sensing solution. The collected data provides us with insights into attendance patterns, such as cancelled lectures and class tests, of over 250 courses. We then develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms and quantile regression technique to predict future attendance patterns. Finally, we propose an intelligent optimisation model that allows allocations of classes to rooms based on the dynamics of predicted attendance as opposed to static enrolment number. We show that the data-driven assignment of classroom resources can achieve a potential saving in room cost of over 10\% over the course of a semester, while incurring a very low risk of disrupting student experience due to classroom overflow; ii) We instrument a car park with IoT sensors for real-time monitoring of parking demand and comprehensively analyse the usage data spanning over 15 months. We then develop machine learning models to forecast future parking demand at multiple forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 10 weeks, our models achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.58 cars per hour. Finally, we propose a novel optimal allocation framework that allows campus manager to re-dimension the car park to accommodate new paradigms of car use while minimizing the risk of rejecting users and maintaining a certain level of revenue from the parking infrastructure; iii) We develop sensing technology for measuring an outdoor orderly queue using ultrasonic sensor and LoRaWAN, and deploy the solution at an on campus bus stop. Our solution yields a reasonable accuracy with MAE of 10.7 people for detecting a queue length of up to 100 people. We then develop an optimisation model to reschedule bus dispatch times based on the actual dynamics of passenger demand. The result suggests that a potential wait time reduction of 42.93% can be achieved with demand-driven bus scheduling. Taken together, our contributions demonstrates that there are significant resource efficiency gains to be realised in a smart-campus that employs IoT sensing coupled with predictive modelling and dynamic optimisation algorithms

Study on the Calculation Models of Bus Delay at Bays Using Queueing Theory and Markov Chain

Traffic congestion at bus bays has decreased the service efficiency of public transit seriously in China, so it is crucial to systematically study its theory and methods. However, the existing studies lack theoretical model on computing efficiency. Therefore, the calculation models of bus delay at bays are studied. Firstly, the process that buses are delayed at bays is analyzed, and it was found that the delay can be divided into entering delay and exiting delay. Secondly, the queueing models of bus bays are formed, and the equilibrium distribution functions are proposed by applying the embedded Markov chain to the traditional model of queuing theory in the steady state; then the calculation models of entering delay are derived at bays. Thirdly, the exiting delay is studied by using the queueing theory and the gap acceptance theory. Finally, the proposed models are validated using field-measured data, and then the influencing factors are discussed. With these models the delay is easily assessed knowing the characteristics of the dwell time distribution and traffic volume at the curb lane in different locations and different periods. It can provide basis for the efficiency evaluation of bus bays

Study on the Calculation Models of Bus Delay at Bays Using Queueing Theory and Markov Chain

Traffic congestion at bus bays has decreased the service efficiency of public transit seriously in China, so it is crucial to systematically study its theory and methods. However, the existing studies lack theoretical model on computing efficiency. Therefore, the calculation models of bus delay at bays are studied. Firstly, the process that buses are delayed at bays is analyzed, and it was found that the delay can be divided into entering delay and exiting delay. Secondly, the queueing models of bus bays are formed, and the equilibrium distribution functions are proposed by applying the embedded Markov chain to the traditional model of queuing theory in the steady state; then the calculation models of entering delay are derived at bays. Thirdly, the exiting delay is studied by using the queueing theory and the gap acceptance theory. Finally, the proposed models are validated using field-measured data, and then the influencing factors are discussed. With these models the delay is easily assessed knowing the characteristics of the dwell time distribution and traffic volume at the curb lane in different locations and different periods. It can provide basis for the efficiency evaluation of bus bays

Scheduling Allocation and Inventory Replenishment Problems Under Uncertainty: Applications in Managing Electric Vehicle and Drone Battery Swap Stations

In this dissertation, motivated by electric vehicle (EV) and drone application growth, we propose novel optimization problems and solution techniques for managing the operations at EV and drone battery swap stations. In Chapter 2, we introduce a novel class of stochastic scheduling allocation and inventory replenishment problems (SAIRP), which determines the recharging, discharging, and replacement decisions at a swap station over time to maximize the expected total profit. We use Markov Decision Process (MDP) to model SAIRPs facing uncertain demands, varying costs, and battery degradation. Considering battery degradation is crucial as it relaxes the assumption that charging/discharging batteries do not deteriorate their quality (capacity). Besides, it ensures customers receive high-quality batteries as we prevent recharging/discharging and swapping when the average capacity of batteries is lower than a predefined threshold. Our MDP has high complexity and dimensions regarding the state space, action space, and transition probabilities; therefore, we can not provide the optimal decision rules (exact solutions) for SAIRPs of increasing size. Thus, we propose high-quality approximate solutions, heuristic and reinforcement learning (RL) methods, for stochastic SAIRPs that provide near-optimal policies for the stations. In Chapter 3, we explore the structure and theoretical findings related to the optimal solution of SAIRP. Notably, we prove the monotonicity properties to develop fast and intelligent algorithms to provide approximate solutions and overcome the curses of dimensionality. We show the existence of monotone optimal decision rules when there is an upper bound on the number of batteries replaced in each period. We demonstrate the monotone structure for the MDP value function when considering the first, second, and both dimensions of the state. We utilize data analytics and regression techniques to provide an intelligent initialization for our monotone approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm. Finally, we provide insights from solving realistic-sized SAIRPs. In Chapter 4, we consider the problem of optimizing the distribution operations of a hub using drones to deliver medical supplies to different geographic regions. Drones are an innovative method with many benefits including low-contact delivery thereby reducing the spread of pandemic and vaccine-preventable diseases. While we focus on medical supply delivery for this work, it is applicable to drone delivery for many other applications, including food, postal items, and e-commerce delivery. In this chapter, our goal is to address drone delivery challenges by optimizing the distribution operations at a drone hub that dispatch drones to different geographic locations generating stochastic demands for medical supplies. By considering different geographic locations, we consider different classes of demand that require different flight ranges, which is directly related to the amount of charge held in a drone battery. We classify the stochastic demands based on their distance from the drone hub, use a Markov decision process to model the problem, and perform computational tests using realistic data representing a prominent drone delivery company. We solve the problem using a reinforcement learning method and show its high performance compared with the exact solution found using dynamic programming. Finally, we analyze the results and provide insights for managing the drone hub operations

A Methodology for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Last Mile Delivery Operations

Across all industries, from manufacturing to services, decision-makers must deal day to day with the outcomes from past and current decisions that affect their business. Last-mile delivery is the term used in supply chain management to describe the movement of goods from a hub to final destinations. This research proposes a methodology that supports decision making for the execution of last-mile delivery operations in a supply chain. This methodology offers diverse, hybrid, and complementary techniques (e.g., optimization, simulation, machine learning, and geographic information systems) to understand last-mile delivery operations through data-driven decision-making. The hybrid modeling might create better warning systems and support the delivery stage in a supply chain. The methodology proposes self-learning procedures to iteratively test and adjust the gaps between the expected and real performance. This methodology supports the process of making effective decisions promptly, optimization, simulation, and machine learning models are used to support execution processes and adjust plans according to changes in conditions, circumstances, and critical factors. This research is applied in two case studies. The first one is in maritime logistics, which discusses the decision process to find the type of vessels and routes to deliver petroleum from ships to villages. The second is in city logistics, where a network of stakeholders during the city distribution process is analyzed, showing the potential benefits of this methodology, especially in metropolitan areas. Potential applications of this system will leverage growing technological trends (e.g., machine learning in supply chain management and logistics, internet of things). The main research impact is the design and implementation of a methodology, which can support real-time decisions and adjust last-mile operations depending on the circumstances. The methodology allows taking decisions under conditions of stakeholder behavior patterns like vehicle drivers, customers, locations, and traffic. As the main benefit is the possibility to predict future scenarios and plan strategies for the most likely situations in last-mile delivery. This will help determine and support the accurate calculation of performance indicators. The research brings a unified methodology, where different solution approaches can be used in a synchronized form, which allows researches and other interested people to see the connection between techniques. With this research, it was possible to bring advanced technologies in routing practices and algorithms to decrease operating cost and leverage the use of offline and online information, thanks to connected sensors to support decisions

Aeronautical engineering: A continuing bibliography, supplement 122

This bibliography lists 303 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in April 1980