Multivariate KPI for energy management of cooling system in food industry

Within EU, the food industry is currently ranked among the energy-intensive sectors, mainly as a consequence of the cooling system shareover the total energy demand. As such, the definition of appropriate key performance indicators (KPI) for ammonia chillers can play a strategic role for the efficient monitoring of the energy performance of the cooling systems. The goal of this paper is to develop an appropriate management approach, to account for energy inefficiency of the single compressors, and to identify the specific variables driving the performance outliers. To this end, a new KPI is proposed which correlates the energy consumption and the different process variables. The construction of the new indicator was carried out by means of multivariate statistical analysis, in particular using Kernel Partial Least Square (KPLS).This method is able to evaluate the maximum correlation between dataset and energy consumption employing nonlinear regression techniques. The validity of the new KPI is discussed on a case study relevant to the cooling system of a frozen ready meals industry. The assessment of the proposed metric is one against Specific Energy Consumption (SEC) like indicator, typically used in the context of the Energy Management Systems

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation.Forecasting ; Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary theory

Kernel Multivariate Analysis Framework for Supervised Subspace Learning: A Tutorial on Linear and Kernel Multivariate Methods

Feature extraction and dimensionality reduction are important tasks in many fields of science dealing with signal processing and analysis. The relevance of these techniques is increasing as current sensory devices are developed with ever higher resolution, and problems involving multimodal data sources become more common. A plethora of feature extraction methods are available in the literature collectively grouped under the field of Multivariate Analysis (MVA). This paper provides a uniform treatment of several methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) and Orthonormalized PLS (OPLS), as well as their non-linear extensions derived by means of the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. We also review their connections to other methods for classification and statistical dependence estimation, and introduce some recent developments to deal with the extreme cases of large-scale and low-sized problems. To illustrate the wide applicability of these methods in both classification and regression problems, we analyze their performance in a benchmark of publicly available data sets, and pay special attention to specific real applications involving audio processing for music genre prediction and hyperspectral satellite images for Earth and climate monitoring