DISASTER RISK IN THE LAKE NYOS AREA, CAMEROON: EFFECTS OF THE GAS HAZARD AND SOCIALLY PRODUCED VULNERABILITY

Effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts depend on comprehensive risk assessments that consider potential hazard events and social vulnerability. The Lake Nyos Disaster (LND) caused the deaths of about 1,700 people, forced another 4,000 people from their homes, and left survivors more vulnerable to future hazards. There is considerable research on the gas hazard and some work on local vulnerability; however studies rarely consider both aspects of disaster risk (DR). This study addresses both the hazard and vulnerability and uses several qualitative and quantitative methods which have never been applied to LND survivor vulnerability or gas hazard. Interviews, participant observation, the Pressure and Release (PAR) and Access models are used to analyze vulnerability. A modified LAHARZ model and GIS mapping are used to categorize the gas hazard. By modeling various gas release scenarios and determining the main factors affecting vulnerability, DR for survivors in the Nyos area is calculated

Probabilistic Project Time Management: Integrating Risk Register and Project Schedule Network.

This paper presents a spreadsheet-based simulation model for analyzing project time management using probabilistic approach. The new feature in the proposed model is that the model recognizes the existence of risks and uncertainty and includes those factors directly on determining the lower-level project task or work package duration estimate. In other words, it provides a means of integrating project time management and risk management. The model utilizes the project risk register to identify all possible work packagerelated risks, to develop appropriate response and to qualitatively foresee the possible residual risk Referring to the risk register, the activity duration for each work package is then quantitatively estimated. The estimate is on the form of a probability density function (PDF). To convert the qualitative data to quantitative values, the Delphi technique, Nominal group technique or expert opinion can be employed. The PDF is then used as inputs of the spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model offers some positive points. It provides a truly direct integration mapping between project scheduling and project risk Secondly, the work packagelevel of integration provides a lower level visibility. It assists the analyst to manage the details which in turn may increase the accuracy of the estimate. Despites its positive aspects, some further improvements are required The model needs a more robust method on converting qualitative to quantitative value. Moreover, it also needs an instrument to incorporate non-work package related risk. The model also needs an extension to cover other project factors: project cost and project specification. To provide more insight, a hypothetical case study on a product development project is also presented. Keywords: project, integration, risk register, probabilistic scheduling, Monte Carl

Making sense of assets: Community asset mapping and related approaches for cultivating capacities

This working paper critically reviews some main aspects from asset based approaches highlights key strengths and weaknesses for future research/development. Drawing on a large body of reports and relevant literature we draw on different theoretical traditions and critiques, as well as practices and processes embedded within a broad range of approaches including, widely acknowledged frameworks such Asset Based Community Development (ABCD), Appreciative Inquiry (AI), Sustainable Livelihood Approaches (SLA) and Community Capitals Framework (CCF). Although these are presented as distinct approaches, there is a sense of evolution through them and many of them overlap (in terms of both theories and methodologies). We also include emerging frameworks, including geographical, socio-spatial, visual and creative approaches, stemming from a number of projects within AHRC’s Connected Communities programme and additional collaborations

Applying concepts of fuzzy cognitive mapping to model IT/IS investment evaluation factors

The justification process is a major concern for many organisations that are considering the adoption of Information Technology (IT) and Information Systems (IS), and is a barrier to its implementation. As a result, the competitive advantage of many companies is being put at risk because of management's inability to evaluate the holistic implication of adopting new technology, both in terms of on the benefit and cost portfolios. This paper identifies a number of well-known project appraisal techniques used in IT/IS investment justification. Furthermore, the concept of multivalent, or fuzzy logic, is used to demonstrate how inter-relationships can be modeled between key dimensions identified in the proposed conceptual evaluation model. This is highlighted using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a technique to model each IT/IS evaluation factor (integrating strategic, tactical, operational and investment considerations). The use of an FCM is then shown to be as a complementary tool which can serve to highlight interdependencies between contributory justification factors

Exploring the relationship between knowledge management and organizational learning via fuzzy cognitive mapping

The normative literature within the field of Knowledge Management has tended to concentrate on techniques and methodologies for codifying knowledge. Similarly, the literature on organizational learning, focuses on aspects of those knowledge that are pertinent at the macro-organizational level (i.e. the overall business). There remains little published literature on how knowledge management and organizational learning are interrelated within business scenarios. In addressing this relative void, the authors of this paper present a model that highlights the factors for such an inter-relationship, which are extrapolated from a manufacturing organisation using a qualitative case study research strategy, supplanted by a cognitive mapping technique: Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). The paper looks at the Information Systems Evaluation (ISE) process within a manufacturing organisation, the authors subsequently presenting a model that not only defines a relationship between KM and OL, but highlights factors that could lead a firm to develop itself towards a learning organisation

Mapping communication management competencies for European practitioners ECOPSI an EU study

This paper and its findings suggest there is little organised life-long learning in public relations and communication management in Europe. Consequently senior communication practitioners believe there are major failings in the capabilities related to our profession which if not addressed will serve as significant challenges for European organisations over the next 10 years. Longitudinal research further suggests the role of practitioners is changing and they require many more competencies to be successful in their communication roles (Zerfass et al., 2007- 2013). These are some of the observations and conclusions drawn from and supported by an extensive review of theory and practice emerging from the ECOPSI Programme (European Communication Professional Skills and Innovation), which is the largest European Union funded project of its kind to report into strategic communication until now (Tench et al 2012, 2013a, 2013b). There are on-going gaps and deficiencies in the development of the individuals as well as broad variation in how practitioners identify needs and access appropriate interventions. This presents numerous opportunities for deeper and on-going professional training and development to build consistency and support good practice in moving away from a hands-on, learning on-the-job approach to more focused knowledge acquisition and development. The ECOPSI programme is a two-year research project exploring the competencies required by communication professionals in Europe. This innovative programme is a partnership of six leading European universities in communication research and education located in Germany, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey and the UK as well as the European Association of Communication Directors (EACD). The two-year programme is led by Leeds Metropolitan University and is the first and largest to be funded by the European Union. The study provides in-depth insights into the competencies needed for four communication roles through the Communication Role Matrix: internal communication, crisis communication, social media and chief communication officer (CCO). The Communication Role Matrix captures what it is a communication professional does and the requirement necessary to perform the role successfully by identifying the knowledge, skills (hard and soft) and personal attributes for each role (Tench et al 2013a). This paper: (1) analyses the construction and perceptions about the Communication Role Matrix; (2) highlights current contemporary issues faced by the industry; and (3) presents the transference of knowledge from ECOPSI to the professional field through the Portal (for) Advancing Communication Expertise (p4ace) along with a self-diagnostic tool aimed to engage practitioners in continued professional development

Identifying reverse 3PL performance critical success factors

The reverse and third party logistics operational process is now well known and established to be a vital component of modern day supply chain and product / service-based organizations (Marasco, 2007). Apart from being a vital component of such enterprises, many researchers and practitioners have also been noting the importance of this approach and its impact on customer service, satisfaction, profitability and other key performance indicators (Autry et al., 2001). However, studies relating to reverse 3PL performance are still limited. This research attempts to examine the factors that influence the reverse logistics performance within 3PL, within a specific case study organization in Thailand, which aims to add to work carried out relating to such operations in this part of the world such as by Bhatnagar et al. (1999). This research uses a combination of a qualitative case study along with a quantitative approach (Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping) to model and analyse the constructs which underpin the dynamics involved within a 3PL scenario. As such, both the combined approaches are based upon the development and testing of a hypothesis via empirical primary and computational data. Hence, using extant literature, and combined qualitative and quantitative research approaches, the paper identifies significant and pertinent critical success factors for reverse 3PL performance (centred around the indogenous/exogenous relationship between information systems, resource commitment and organizational structure). The paper also explores the deep inter-relationships involved within 3PL operations using the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping technique, contributing to the existing literature on reverse 3PL and performant supply chains, and identifying critical success factors and underlying determinants of reverse 3PL of use to those industry and investigating the area from an academic perspective