Climate Shocks and their Impact on Assets

human development, climate change

산사태, 홍수 및 관련 복합재해 피해 예방을 위한 통합적 리스크 관리 체계

학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :환경대학원 협동과정 조경학,2019. 8. 이동근.In recent years, it has been reported that climate change is leading to increased damage and losses caused by natural hazards. Moreover, reports of compound disasters caused by multiple hazards in extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Efforts have been made to improve risk management for natural hazards; however, there has been little discussion about providing an integrated framework supported by technical tools to establish an efficient and effective management plan based on quantitative analyses. Meanwhile, risk management tools and frameworks have been developed intensively in the industrial sector for decades. Applying risk management practices proven in the industrial sector can assist in systematic hazard identification and quantitative risk analysis for natural hazards, thereby potentially helping to reduce unwanted losses and to promote interactive risk communication. The objective of this study is to introduce methods of studying risk commonly used in the process industry, and to suggest how such methods can be applied to manage natural disasters, providing an integrated risk management framework. In particular, the hazard and operability (HAZOP), safety integrated level (SIL), and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods were investigated for the parts of the risk management process, which are risk identification, risk analysis, risk treatment, risk evaluation, and risk acceptance, as these methods are used to conduct key risk studies in industry. Herein, a literature review regarding those key risk studies and their application in various fields is briefly presented, together with an overview of risk management for natural hazards and multi-hazard risks. Next, common ways of implementing these risk studies for managing natural hazards are presented, with a focus on methodological considerations. First, a case study is presented in which HAZOP is applied to identify climate-related natural hazards in an organization using a worksheet that lists and evaluates natural hazards. Second, a study applying SIL is presented, in which the probability of landslide and rockfall occurrence is estimated based on the concept of reliability, indicating how probability values can be used for landslide risk management. In the third part, a simplified QRA for landslide hazard is exemplified through the case of site planning for a resort facility on a mountain hill, with the purpose of illustrating how stakeholders can make decisions on spatial planning regarding risk acceptance. In addition, this part presents the result of impact assessments conducted using physically-based models for cases involving multiple hazards, such as a post-wildfire landslide and complex flooding resulting from dam collapse. The technical approaches used in this study—systematic hazard identification, time-dependent reliability, and quantitative risk assessment for single or compound disasters using physically-based models—provide the methods to resolve the difficulty of establishing tools for managing the risk from natural hazards. The analysis presented in this study also provides a useful framework for improving the risk management of natural hazards through establishing a more systematic context and facilitating risk communication between decision-makers and the public.기후변화에 의한 자연재해는 최근 증가하는 추세이며, 폭우 등 극한 기상 현상에 의한 복합재해 피해 역시 증가하는 것으로 보고되고 있다. 그간 자연 위해 요소로부터 기인하는 리스크 관리를 개선하기 위한 노력은 있어왔으나, 통합체계 구축에 대한 논의는 부족한 편이였다. 또한 정량적 리스크 분석에 기반한 효율적 관리 체계 확립에 있어서도 리스크 평가를 위한 적정 기술 제공에 어려움이 있었다. 한편, 재해로 인한 손실 예방 및 저감을 위한 통합적 위험 관리 체계는 수십 년간 산업 부문에서 집중적으로 개발되었다. 자연재해 위험 관리를 위하여 이와 같은 체계적인 분석 방법과 검증된 운영 방식을 채택한다면, 이상 기후 노출로 인해 반복되는 인명 및 자산 손실을 줄일 수 있을 것이다. 이 연구의 목적은 석유화학 업종에서 사용되는 위험 관리 방법에 대하여 분석하고 자연재해 사례에 적용하여 통합적 위험 관리 체계를 수립하는데 있다. 특히, 리스크 관련 스터디 중 주요하게 실행되는 위험 및 작동성 평가 (The Hazard and Operability –HAZOP), 안전 통합 수준 분석 (Safety Integrated Level – SIL), 정량적 위험 평가 (Quantitative Risk Assessment – QRA) 에 대하여 자세히 알아보고, 이 방법들이 리스크의 확인, 분석, 저감, 평가, 수용으로 이어지는 자연재해 리스크 관리 전반에 어떻게 적용될 수 있는지에 대하여 분석하였다. 이 논문에서는 먼저 위에서 언급한 세가지 주요 리스크 스터디들에 대한 문헌 조사 내용을 소개하고, 다양한 분야에 적용되고 있는 현황에 대하여 알아보았다. 또한 기존의 자연재해 리스크 관리 방법들에 대하여 조사하고, 다중 위험 요소에 의한 복합재해 유형을 소개하였다. 다음으로, 이 리스크 스터디들이 실행되는 일반적 방법들에 대하여 알아보고, 자연재해 리스크 관리 분야에 적용되기 위한 방안들에 대하여 논의하였다. 첫번째 결과는 기후 관련 자연재해의 위험 요인을 식별하기 위한 HAZOP 스터디 사례이며, 워크시트 형태로 한 기관 내에 발생 할 수 있는 자연 위해 요소들을 분석하였다. 두번째 부분은 산사태와 낙석 발생의 확률을 추정하기 위하여 신뢰도 개념에 근거한 SIL 스터디를 적용한 사례 연구이며, 산정된 확률 지표를 사용하여 효율적으로 산사태 위험을 관리하기 위한 방안을 제시하였다. 셋째로, 산사태 위험을 정량적으로 분석하기위한 QRA 사례 연구를 진행하였으며, 산악 지역 펜션 리조트의 부지 선정 과정에서 노출될 수 있는 산사태 위험을 평가하고 수용하는 방법에 대하여 계획의 관점에서 알아보았다. 아울러, 이 결과 부분에서는 산불 후 산사태와 호우 시 댐 붕괴로 인한 홍수, 두가지 복합재해 사례에 대하여 알아보고 물리식 기반 모델을 사용한 영향 평가 방법에 대하여 논의 하였다. 이 논문에서 제시된 기술적 접근법인 체계적 위험성 식별, 시간에 따른 신뢰성 분석, 정량적 위험성 평가, 물리 모델에 기반한 복합재해 영향 평가는 자연재해 리스크 관리를 위한 방안들로 활용 될 수 있으며, 기술적 어려움을 해결하는데 도움이 될 수 있다. 이 논문의 연구 결과는 의사 결정자와 대중 간의 리스크 관련 의사 소통을 원활히 하고 체계적 관리 방안을 수립함으로써 자연재해 리스크 관리를 향상시키는데 유용한 통합 체계를 제공할 것이다.Table of Contents 1. Introduction １ 1.1 Study background and objective １ 1.2 Study scope ８ 2. Theoretical paradigm and literature review １２ 2.1 Natural hazard management and communication １２ 2.1.1 The status of natural disaster occurrence １２ 2.1.2 Risk management for natural hazard １５ 2.1.3 Communication on risk information １８ 2.2 Industrial risk management practices ２０ 2.2.1 Risk identification ２０ 2.2.2 Risk analysis and treatment ２３ 2.2.3 Risk evaluation and acceptance ２５ 2.3 Type and impact of multi-hazard risk ２７ 2.4 Comparison of risk assessment methodologies ３２ 3. Risk identification for climate change issues ３５ 3.1 Method for risk identification ３５ 3.2 Result of risk identification ４０ 3.2.1 Climate change risk identification ４０ 3.3 Discussion on risk identification ４２ 4. Risk analysis and treatment for natural hazards ４５ 4.1 Method for risk analysis and treatment ４５ 4.2 Results of risk analysis and treatment ６１ 4.2.1 Risk analysis and treatment for landslide hazard ６１ 4.2.2 Risk analysis and treatment for rockfall hazard ６９ 4.3 Discussion on risk analysis and treatment ８１ 5. Risk evaluation and acceptance for compound disasters ８７ 5.1 Method for risk evaluation and acceptance ８７ 5.2 Result of risk evaluation and acceptance １００ 5.2.1 QRA with physically-based landslide model １００ 5.2.2 Impact assessment of post-wildfire landslides １０５ 5.2.3 Impact assessment of complex flooding １０９ 5.3 Discussion on risk evaluation and acceptance １１４ 6. Discussion １２２ 7. Conclusion １２５Docto

An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence-base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention) and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures, and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7 to 1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities – thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.Landslide modelling, Risk assessment, Cost Benefit Analysis, Developing countries, Community

A linguistically-driven methodology for detecting impending and unfolding emergencies from social media messages

Natural disasters have demonstrated the crucial role of social media before, during and after emergencies (Haddow & Haddow 2013). Within our EU project Sland \ub4 ail, we aim to ethically improve \ub4 the use of social media in enhancing the response of disaster-related agen-cies. To this end, we have collected corpora of social and formal media to study newsroom communication of emergency management organisations in English and Italian. Currently, emergency management agencies in English-speaking countries use social media in different measure and different degrees, whereas Italian National Protezione Civile only uses Twitter at the moment. Our method is developed with a view to identifying communicative strategies and detecting sentiment in order to distinguish warnings from actual disasters and major from minor disasters. Our linguistic analysis uses humans to classify alert/warning messages or emer-gency response and mitigation ones based on the terminology used and the sentiment expressed. Results of linguistic analysis are then used to train an application by tagging messages and detecting disaster- and/or emergency-related terminology and emotive language to simulate human rating and forward information to an emergency management system

Do Natural Disasters Affect Human Capital? An Assessment Based on Existing Empirical Evidence

The last few years have seen a notable increase in the number of studies investigating the causes and effects of natural disasters in many dimensions. This paper seeks to review and assess available empirical evidence on the ex-post microeconomic effects of natural disasters on the accumulation of human capital, focusing on consumption, nutrition, education and health, including mental health. Three major findings come forward from this work. First, disasters appear to bring substantial damages to human capital, including death and destruction, and produce deleterious consequences on nutrition, education, health and many income-generating processes. Furthermore, some of these detrimental effects are both large and long-lasting. Second, there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the size – but not much in the direction – of the impacts on different socioeconomic groups. Yet, an empirical regularity across natural hazards is that the poorest carry the heaviest burden of the effects of disasters across different determinants and outcomes of human capital. Finally, although the occurrence of natural hazards is mostly out of control of authorities, there still is a significant room for policy action to minimize their impacts on the accumulation of human capital. We highlight the importance of flexible safety nets as well as the double critical role of accurate and reliable information to monitor risks and vulnerabilities, and identify the impacts and responses of households once they are hit by a disaster. The paper also lays out existing knowledge gaps, particularly in regard to the need of improving our understanding of the impacts of disasters on health outcomes, the mechanisms of transmission and the persistence of the effects in the long-run.natural disasters, human capital accumulation

Communicating Uncertainty During Public Health Emergency Events:A Systematic Review

To answer the question, "What are the best ways to communicate uncertainties to public audiences, at-risk communities, and stakeholders during public health emergency events?" we conducted a systematic review of published studies, grey literature, and media reports in English and other United Nations (UN) languages: Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, and Spanish. Almost 11,500 titles and abstracts were scanned of which 46 data-based primary studies were selected, which were classified into four methodological streams: Quantitative-comparison groups; Quantitative-descriptive survey; Qualitative; and Mixed-method and case-study. Study characteristics (study method, country, emergency type, emergency phase, at-risk population) and study findings (in narrative form) were extracted from individual studies. The findings were synthesized within methodological streams and evaluated for certainty and confidence. These within-method findings were next synthesized across methodological streams to develop an overarching synthesis of findings. The findings showed that country coverage focused on high and middle-income countries in Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania, and the event most covered was infectious disease followed by flood and earthquake. The findings also showed that uncertainty during public health emergency events is a multi-faceted concept with multiple components (e.g., event occurrence, personal and family safety, recovery efforts). There is universal agreement, with some exceptions, that communication to the public should include explicit information about event uncertainties, and this information must be consistent and presented in an easy to understand format. Additionally, uncertainty related to events requires a distinction between uncertainty information and uncertainty experience. At-risk populations experience event uncertainty in the context of many other uncertainties they are already experiencing in their lives due to poverty. Experts, policymakers, healthcare workers, and other stakeholders experience event uncertainty and misunderstand some uncertainty information (e.g., event probabilities) similar to the public. Media professionals provide event coverage under conditions of contradictory and inconsistent event information that can heighten uncertainty experience for all

Assessing the Reliability and Validity of the Evacuation Support Decision Tool

This study examines the reliability and validity of the Evacuation Decision Support Tool (EDST). The EDST is designed to provide healthcare facilities, emergency managers, and other agencies with a systematic process with which to evaluate and guide “evacuation” versus “shelter in place” decision making for a variety of “all hazards” situations. The EDST is comprised of 7 items that assess “threat” and 9 items that measure “consequences” of a situation. The tool was designed to provide users with a decision on whether to remain, prepare, or evacuate from a healthcare facility. To date, there has not been a study that examined psychometric properties of any evacuation decision tool, including the EDST

Analysis and modelling of flood risk assessment using information diffusion and artificial neural network

Floods are a serious hazard to life and property. The traditional probability statistical method is acceptable in analysing the flood risk but requires a large sample size of hydrological data. This paper puts forward a composite method based on artificial neural network (ANN) and information diffusion method (IDM) for flood analysis. Information diffusion theory helps to extract as much useful information as possible from the sample and thus improves the accuracy of system recognition. Meanwhile, an artificial neural network model, back-propagation (BP) neural network, is used to map the multi-dimensional space of a disaster situation to a one-dimensional disaster space and to enable resolution of the grade of flood disaster loss. These techniques all contribute to a reasonable prediction of natural disaster risk. As an example, application of the method is verified in a flood risk analysis in China, and the risks of different flood grades are determined. Our model yielded very good results and suggests that the methodology is effective and practical, with the potentiality to be used to forecast flood risk for use in flood risk management. It is also hoped that by conducting such analyses lessons can be learned so that the impact of natural disasters such as floods can be mitigated in the future.Keywords: artificial neural network, information diffusion, flood, risk analysis, assessmen