18,769 research outputs found
Arrival Time Statistics in Global Disease Spread
Metapopulation models describing cities with different populations coupled by
the travel of individuals are of great importance in the understanding of
disease spread on a large scale. An important example is the Rvachev-Longini
model [{\it Math. Biosci.} {\bf 75}, 3-22 (1985)] which is widely used in
computational epidemiology. Few analytical results are however available and in
particular little is known about paths followed by epidemics and disease
arrival times. We study the arrival time of a disease in a city as a function
of the starting seed of the epidemics. We propose an analytical Ansatz, test it
in the case of a spreading on the world wide air transportation network, and
show that it predicts accurately the arrival order of a disease in world-wide
cities
Variability of Contact Process in Complex Networks
We study numerically how the structures of distinct networks influence the
epidemic dynamics in contact process. We first find that the variability
difference between homogeneous and heterogeneous networks is very narrow,
although the heterogeneous structures can induce the lighter prevalence.
Contrary to non-community networks, strong community structures can cause the
secondary outbreak of prevalence and two peaks of variability appeared.
Especially in the local community, the extraordinarily large variability in
early stage of the outbreak makes the prediction of epidemic spreading hard.
Importantly, the bridgeness plays a significant role in the predictability,
meaning the further distance of the initial seed to the bridgeness, the less
accurate the predictability is. Also, we investigate the effect of different
disease reaction mechanisms on variability, and find that the different
reaction mechanisms will result in the distinct variabilities at the end of
epidemic spreading.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure
Fluctuation effects in metapopulation models: percolation and pandemic threshold
Metapopulation models provide the theoretical framework for describing
disease spread between different populations connected by a network. In
particular, these models are at the basis of most simulations of pandemic
spread. They are usually studied at the mean-field level by neglecting
fluctuations. Here we include fluctuations in the models by adopting fully
stochastic descriptions of the corresponding processes. This level of
description allows to address analytically, in the SIS and SIR cases, problems
such as the existence and the calculation of an effective threshold for the
spread of a disease at a global level. We show that the possibility of the
spread at the global level is described in terms of (bond) percolation on the
network. This mapping enables us to give an estimate (lower bound) for the
pandemic threshold in the SIR case for all values of the model parameters and
for all possible networks.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, final versio
Temporal networks of face-to-face human interactions
The ever increasing adoption of mobile technologies and ubiquitous services
allows to sense human behavior at unprecedented levels of details and scale.
Wearable sensors are opening up a new window on human mobility and proximity at
the finest resolution of face-to-face proximity. As a consequence, empirical
data describing social and behavioral networks are acquiring a longitudinal
dimension that brings forth new challenges for analysis and modeling. Here we
review recent work on the representation and analysis of temporal networks of
face-to-face human proximity, based on large-scale datasets collected in the
context of the SocioPatterns collaboration. We show that the raw behavioral
data can be studied at various levels of coarse-graining, which turn out to be
complementary to one another, with each level exposing different features of
the underlying system. We briefly review a generative model of temporal contact
networks that reproduces some statistical observables. Then, we shift our focus
from surface statistical features to dynamical processes on empirical temporal
networks. We discuss how simple dynamical processes can be used as probes to
expose important features of the interaction patterns, such as burstiness and
causal constraints. We show that simulating dynamical processes on empirical
temporal networks can unveil differences between datasets that would otherwise
look statistically similar. Moreover, we argue that, due to the temporal
heterogeneity of human dynamics, in order to investigate the temporal
properties of spreading processes it may be necessary to abandon the notion of
wall-clock time in favour of an intrinsic notion of time for each individual
node, defined in terms of its activity level. We conclude highlighting several
open research questions raised by the nature of the data at hand.Comment: Chapter of the book "Temporal Networks", Springer, 2013. Series:
Understanding Complex Systems. Holme, Petter; Saram\"aki, Jari (Eds.
Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments
Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate
complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions
between the pathogens and the host immune system, the host life cycle, and the
space structure of the population. Here we focus on the competition between two
acute infections and we address the role of host mobility and cross-immunity in
shaping possible dominance/co-dominance regimes. Host mobility is modelled as a
network of traveling flows connecting nodes of a metapopulation, and the
two-pathogen dynamics is simulated with a stochastic mechanistic approach.
Results depict a complex scenario where, according to the relation among the
epidemiological parameters of the two pathogens, mobility can either be
non-influential for the competition dynamics or play a critical role in
selecting the dominant pathogen. The characterisation of the parameter space
can be explained in terms of the trade-off between pathogen's spreading
velocity and its ability to diffuse in a sparse environment. Variations in the
cross-immunity level induce a transition between presence and absence of
competition. The present study disentangles the role of the relevant biological
and ecological factors in the competition dynamics, and provides relevant
insights into the spatial ecology of infectious diseases.Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Final version accepted for publication
in Scientific Report
Fractional diffusion emulates a human mobility network during a simulated disease outbreak
From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the
spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on
characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of
individuals between contact nodes. In some cases, transport can be
parameterized with gravity-type models or approximated by a diffusive random
walk. As a alternative, we have isolated intranational commercial air traffic
as a case study for the utility of non-diffusive, heavy-tailed transport
models. We implemented new stochastic simulations of a prototypical
influenza-like infection, focusing on the dense, highly-connected United States
air travel network. We show that mobility on this network can be described
mainly by a power law, in agreement with previous studies. Remarkably, we find
that the global evolution of an outbreak on this network is accurately
reproduced by a two-parameter space-fractional diffusion equation, such that
those parameters are determined by the air travel network.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figure
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