Further Evidence on Convergence across Italian Regions

In the last decade the issue of convergence across states and regions has received a great deal of attention both on the theoretical and empirical ground. On the empirical ground different specifications lead to different results and their robustness is also questioned. We review both neoclassical and endogenous growth theories and the evidence on international and Italian data. We use a methodology that enhances the power of the estimates proposed by Evans and Karras (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996) that uses panel data and test for their stochastic properties. Data cover the time-span 1951-1998. We find evidence of conditional convergence.

Regularity Properties and Pathologies of Position-Space Renormalization-Group Transformations

We reconsider the conceptual foundations of the renormalization-group (RG) formalism, and prove some rigorous theorems on the regularity properties and possible pathologies of the RG map. Regarding regularity, we show that the RG map, defined on a suitable space of interactions (= formal Hamiltonians), is always single-valued and Lipschitz continuous on its domain of definition. This rules out a recently proposed scenario for the RG description of first-order phase transitions. On the pathological side, we make rigorous some arguments of Griffiths, Pearce and Israel, and prove in several cases that the renormalized measure is not a Gibbs measure for any reasonable interaction. This means that the RG map is ill-defined, and that the conventional RG description of first-order phase transitions is not universally valid. For decimation or Kadanoff transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension $d \ge 3$, these pathologies occur in a full neighborhood $\{ \beta > \beta_0 ,\, |h| < \epsilon(\beta) \}$ of the low-temperature part of the first-order phase-transition surface. For block-averaging transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension $d \ge 2$, the pathologies occur at low temperatures for arbitrary magnetic-field strength. Pathologies may also occur in the critical region for Ising models in dimension $d \ge 4$. We discuss in detail the distinction between Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian measures, and give a rather complete catalogue of the known examples. Finally, we discuss the heuristic and numerical evidence on RG pathologies in the light of our rigorous theorems.Comment: 273 pages including 14 figures, Postscript, See also ftp.scri.fsu.edu:hep-lat/papers/9210/9210032.ps.

There Is No Pure Empirical Reasoning

The justificatory force of empirical reasoning always depends upon the existence of some synthetic, a priori justification. The reasoner must begin with justified, substantive constraints on both the prior probability of the conclusion and certain conditional probabilities; otherwise, all possible degrees of belief in the conclusion are left open given the premises. Such constraints cannot in general be empirically justified, on pain of infinite regress. Nor does subjective Bayesianism offer a way out for the empiricist. Despite often-cited convergence theorems, subjective Bayesians cannot hold that any empirical hypothesis is ever objectively justified in the relevant sense. Rationalism is thus the only alternative to an implausible skepticism

Kernel Analog Forecasting: Multiscale Test Problems

Data-driven prediction is becoming increasingly widespread as the volume of data available grows and as algorithmic development matches this growth. The nature of the predictions made, and the manner in which they should be interpreted, depends crucially on the extent to which the variables chosen for prediction are Markovian, or approximately Markovian. Multiscale systems provide a framework in which this issue can be analyzed. In this work kernel analog forecasting methods are studied from the perspective of data generated by multiscale dynamical systems. The problems chosen exhibit a variety of different Markovian closures, using both averaging and homogenization; furthermore, settings where scale-separation is not present and the predicted variables are non-Markovian, are also considered. The studies provide guidance for the interpretation of data-driven prediction methods when used in practice.Comment: 30 pages, 14 figures; clarified several ambiguous parts, added references, and a comparison with Lorenz' original method (Sec. 4.5

Poland in the Period of Economic Transition and Germany After Reunification an Attempt at Assessing Σ-Convergence

In 2009 and 2010 Poland and Germany are celebrating some important anniversaries - 20 years of the first free elections and the fall of the Berlin Wall. These jubilees inspire research aiming at taking stock of developments having unfolded over this time. Since the economic cohesion is high on the EU agenda, examining international and interregional differences seems an important research task. This article aims at evaluating and comparing σ-convergence (diminishing discrepancies of GDP p.c.) in Poland (1995-2005) and Germany (1992-2006) on three NUTS levels. Preliminary results point to inequalities regularly diminishing in Germany, however, growing in Poland. A tentative reasoning suggests that increasing values of regional differences observed in Poland might be a temporary phenomenon